2025-2026 ENSO

[A-L-E-K]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

This is a good post imho and mirrors my general thinking:
 

ready 2 b buried

[snowman19]

I’m not sure we can be confident on a west coast ridge for mid-late December. Paul Roundy has been vehemently disagreeing and thinks the subseasonal forcing supports -PNA/SE ridge after early December. When he talks you have to listen, the guy basically wrote the book on the book on the MJO (Roundy MJO plots)

[GaWx]

 Today’s Euro Weeklies 10 mb 60N mean zonal wind isn’t as weak as recent runs:

Today’s run (11/19):

 

Yesterday’s (11/18):

 

Does anyone else see what I’m referring to? I’m not just talking about whether it actually reverses. I’m talking more about the period afterward.

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m not sure we can be confident on a west coast ridge for mid-late December. Paul Roundy has been vehemently disagreeing and thinks the subseasonal forcing supports -PNA/SE ridge after early December. When he talks you have to listen, the guy basically wrote the book on the book on the MJO (Roundy MJO plots)
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

He is a smart guy but he has been wrong in the past.

[GaWx]

 Today’s Euro Weekly 2m temp anomalies vs yesterday’s run:

Dec 1-7: ~same

Dec 8-14: similar for most/slightly stronger cold in Lakes region

 

Dec 15-21: similar for most/slightly colder NNE

Dec 22-28: similar for most/slightly colder NE/slightly less cold Lakes region: