2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Thanks. This is what I was looking at directly from ECMWF rather than from WxBell and also this is strictly for Dec 1-21: still no prevailing +PNA

Dec 1-7: coldest MW to Rockies vs mainly NN NE/SE

Dec 8-14: coldest MW to N Rockies; slightly cold NE; NN SE

 

Dec 15-21: slightly cold NE, NN SE

[FPizz]

23 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks. This is what I was looking at directly from ECMWF rather than from WxBell and also this is strictly for Dec 1-21: still no prevailing +PNA

Dec 1-7: coldest MW to Rockies vs mainly NN NE/SE

Dec 8-14: coldest MW to N Rockies; slightly cold NE; NN SE

 

Dec 15-21: slightly cold NE, NN SE

Thanks for these.  I'll take anything that has normal and slightly below normal at this point in the winter season.  Anything else, especially early in the season, in my head in my location still means more of a chance of rain over wintry precip with the average highs still being well over freezing.  

[mitchnick]

37 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks. This is what I was looking at directly from ECMWF rather than from WxBell and also this is strictly for Dec 1-21: still no prevailing +PNA

Dec 1-7: coldest MW to Rockies vs mainly NN NE/SE

Dec 8-14: coldest MW to N Rockies; slightly cold NE; NN SE

 

Dec 15-21: slightly cold NE, NN SE

Coast to coast cold. Hmmmm

[GaWx]

28 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Coast to coast cold. Hmmmm

Indeed, there’s a much greater % of the conus with BN vs AN in weeks 1-2 of Dec.

[stadiumwave]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Thanks. This is what I was looking at directly from ECMWF rather than from WxBell and also this is strictly for Dec 1-21: still no prevailing +PNA

Dec 1-7: coldest MW to Rockies vs mainly NN NE/SE

Dec 8-14: coldest MW to N Rockies; slightly cold NE; NN SE

 

Dec 15-21: slightly cold NE, NN SE

 

What's crazy is just like last fall, we have been mostly +PNA since mid-Oct, and really since mid-Sept mostly +PNA. If that holds most of winter it would be unusual. 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Monster -WPO by the end of the 12z GEFS, last few days of November. Matching strong -QBO/negative ENSO years like 1989 and 2005 (although probably not as extreme). Remember I was saying I was curious if the strong -QBO/weak negative ENSO connection would make us really cold late Nov into the 1st half of December, like the coincidence that's happened over and over again (I say coincidence because the QBO is a Stratosphere index). It's looking more likely! 

[anthonymm]

3 hours ago, FPizz said:

-PNA sucks.

[GaWx]

Allan Huffman going with a cold January in the E US. I wonder if this is because of a prog for a very early SSWE followed by a lagged cold effect in Jan: I’d be more than happy with this. I’d love another cold Jan! Not having a warmer than normal La Niña winter in the majority of the SE including another cold Jan would be a victory!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Allan Huffman is a good Met. He used to post here all the time. If I put out a Winter forecast, it would look like that, except I would switch December and January. 

[MJO812]

50 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

-PNA sucks.

We dont want suppression

[dmillz25]

1 hour ago, anthonymm said:

-PNA sucks.

I would rather a -PNA tbh just not a deep one

[anthonymm]

15 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

I would rather a -PNA tbh just not a deep one

the big ku's almost always feature +pna.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

We dont want suppression

We do way down here, Anthony. Suppression is our winter bread and butter. Therefore, I love +PNAs! Nothing is more beautiful on a wx map than a very tall western N American ridge.

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

What's crazy is just like last fall, we have been mostly +PNA since mid-Oct, and really since mid-Sept mostly +PNA. If that holds most of winter it would be unusual. 

 

I think the big +PNA streak is about to come to a close. IMO, the tail end of this month and December go -PNA/RNA

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I think the big +PNA streak is about to come to a close. IMO, the tail end of this month and December go -PNA/RNA

Agree. I think RNA December, but January is the one +PNA month of the winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Allan Huffman is a good Met. He used to post here all the time. If I put out a Winter forecast, it would look like that, except I would switch December and January. 

I agree...I think December is colder than January.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Natural Gas December contract is up 25% in the last 3.5 weeks.. from $3.63 on 10/19 to $4.54 now.. It's moving because of the prospect for a cooler December. I've been saying if you know this stuff is coming, you can make money. It's not as factored in as you'd think. 

NG January: $4.75

NG February: $4.42

NG March: $3.95

I usually use $5.00 as the "even" mark.. under is warmer than average probability, over is colder than average, although there are a lot of factors that are included.. it's not 100% weather related. Also is more correlated to the NAO than the Pacific, since Europe is a big part of the market. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I think the big +PNA streak is about to come to a close. IMO, the tail end of this month and December go -PNA/RNA

You think? Long range models are showing more +PNA at the Day-15+ range. It's looking like a -WPO/-EPO wants to develop with a little +PNA under it. I don't see any signs of RNA on current long range models for late November, although I don't know if the Euro weeklies show that in Dec (It looks pretty neutral in the N. Pacific with the cold coming from west-based -NAO). 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree...I think December is colder than January.

I am a little worried about Jan and Feb in the 1989-90 and 2005-06 analogs. I do think there will be more -AO in Jan/Feb so we'll see how that goes. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I am a little worried about Jan and Feb in the 1989-90 and 2005-06 analogs. I do think there will be more -AO in Jan/Feb so we'll see how that goes. 

February 2006 wasn't all that bad. At least we got a return to cold, and a snowstorm on the 11th-12th. I'd gladly sign up for that after the last 3 or 4 winters.

But please, no repeat of 1989-90, when spring pretty much began in January.

[snowman19]

13 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You think? Long range models are showing more +PNA at the Day-15+ range. It's looking like a -WPO/-EPO wants to develop with a little +PNA under it. I don't see any signs of RNA on current long range models for late November, although I don't know if the Euro weeklies show that in Dec (It looks pretty neutral in the N. Pacific with the cold coming from west-based -NAO). 

Yes. The 12z EPS started to show RNA the tail end of this month into December. I believe the -PNA flip is definitely coming. I also don’t doubt the -AO/-NAO/-EPO/-WPO 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yes. The 12z EPS started to show RNA the tail end of this month into December. I believe the -PNA flip is definitely coming. I also don’t doubt the -AO/-NAO/-EPO/-WPO 

Usually ENSO related December isn't a big month for PNA

Correlation really gets higher in Jan-Feb.. You know how we're following it so far..

[SnowGoose69]

2 hours ago, anthonymm said:

the big ku's almost always feature +pna.

People don't realize though that many significant snow events had a -PNA

[stadiumwave]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I think the big +PNA streak is about to come to a close. IMO, the tail end of this month and December go -PNA/RNA

I'd think so but I heard that talk last Nov as well. It should, but I am kind of hesitant. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

@brooklynwx99 Has 500mb maps of days leading up to NYC 18"+ snowstorms.. it has a real strong Aleutian ridge (I think near +150dm) a few days before.. along with a -NAO. 

[snowman19]

6 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

People don't realize though that many significant snow events had a -PNA

If people are looking for a parade of KU’s up the coast, that’s probably not happening this winter with the Niña/-PMM greatly suppressing and muting the STJ

[so_whats_happening]

Lol parade of storms you would be lucky to get one maybe two good KU style storms in a season during the performative Nino style years. My goal this year is one 1 foot snowstorm and move on. 

Who knew that La Ninas produced quite the rains starting to show up for central and southern California in the medium range.

[donsutherland1]

For Washington, DC to New York City, a PNA+ is far more common for days with 6" or more snowfall except during the second half of February and afterward when the wave lengths shorten. New York City statistics since 1950:

For January, when wave lengths are at their longest, a PNA+ was present for 92.5% of days with 6" or more snowfall in New York City.

For Boston, the PNA+ plays a smaller role.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

If people are looking for a parade of KU’s up the coast, that’s probably not happening this winter with the Niña/-PMM greatly suppressing and muting the STJ

Alot of clippers and possibly Miller B storms this winter.

[brooklynwx99]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

@brooklynwx99 Has 500mb maps of days leading up to NYC 18"+ snowstorms.. it has a real strong Aleutian ridge (I think near +150dm) a few days before.. along with a -NAO. 

yeah, you have +PNA the day of but -PNA beforehand. the +PNA is a transient response to the low heights off the WC. retrograding -NAO is a must (which is why i hate when people totally downplay the impact of the NAO)