2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Thanks. This is what I was looking at directly from ECMWF rather than from WxBell and also this is strictly for Dec 1-21: still no prevailing +PNA

Dec 1-7: coldest MW to Rockies vs mainly NN NE/SE

Dec 8-14: coldest MW to N Rockies; slightly cold NE; NN SE

 

Dec 15-21: slightly cold NE, NN SE

[FPizz]

23 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks. This is what I was looking at directly from ECMWF rather than from WxBell and also this is strictly for Dec 1-21: still no prevailing +PNA

Dec 1-7: coldest MW to Rockies vs mainly NN NE/SE

Dec 8-14: coldest MW to N Rockies; slightly cold NE; NN SE

 

Dec 15-21: slightly cold NE, NN SE

Thanks for these.  I'll take anything that has normal and slightly below normal at this point in the winter season.  Anything else, especially early in the season, in my head in my location still means more of a chance of rain over wintry precip with the average highs still being well over freezing.  

[mitchnick]

37 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks. This is what I was looking at directly from ECMWF rather than from WxBell and also this is strictly for Dec 1-21: still no prevailing +PNA

Dec 1-7: coldest MW to Rockies vs mainly NN NE/SE

Dec 8-14: coldest MW to N Rockies; slightly cold NE; NN SE

 

Dec 15-21: slightly cold NE, NN SE

Coast to coast cold. Hmmmm

[GaWx]

28 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Coast to coast cold. Hmmmm

Indeed, there’s a much greater % of the conus with BN vs AN in weeks 1-2 of Dec.

[stadiumwave]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Thanks. This is what I was looking at directly from ECMWF rather than from WxBell and also this is strictly for Dec 1-21: still no prevailing +PNA

Dec 1-7: coldest MW to Rockies vs mainly NN NE/SE

Dec 8-14: coldest MW to N Rockies; slightly cold NE; NN SE

 

Dec 15-21: slightly cold NE, NN SE

 

What's crazy is just like last fall, we have been mostly +PNA since mid-Oct, and really since mid-Sept mostly +PNA. If that holds most of winter it would be unusual. 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Monster -WPO by the end of the 12z GEFS, last few days of November. Matching strong -QBO/negative ENSO years like 1989 and 2005 (although probably not as extreme). Remember I was saying I was curious if the strong -QBO/weak negative ENSO connection would make us really cold late Nov into the 1st half of December, like the coincidence that's happened over and over again (I say coincidence because the QBO is a Stratosphere index). It's looking more likely! 

[anthonymm]

3 hours ago, FPizz said:

-PNA sucks.

[GaWx]

Allan Huffman going with a cold January in the E US. I wonder if this is because of a prog for a very early SSWE followed by a lagged cold effect in Jan: I’d be more than happy with this. I’d love another cold Jan! Not having a warmer than normal La Niña winter in the majority of the SE including another cold Jan would be a victory!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Allan Huffman is a good Met. He used to post here all the time. If I put out a Winter forecast, it would look like that, except I would switch December and January. 

[MJO812]

50 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

-PNA sucks.

We dont want suppression

[dmillz25]

1 hour ago, anthonymm said:

-PNA sucks.

I would rather a -PNA tbh just not a deep one

[anthonymm]

15 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

I would rather a -PNA tbh just not a deep one

the big ku's almost always feature +pna.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

We dont want suppression

We do way down here, Anthony. Suppression is our winter bread and butter. Therefore, I love +PNAs! Nothing is more beautiful on a wx map than a very tall western N American ridge.