2025-2026 ENSO

[michsnowfreak]

3 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Great pic!  Congrats on the fist accumulating snow.  Snow on that, I'm guessing burning bush?, looks really pretty.  

Thanks! Yes, thats a burning bush. Its not my house, i just thought it looked cool lol. While the Fall colors are past peak, there are a few hanging on and they created beautiful and unusual scenes this morning. We had 2.5" total, but the first half was very heavy, wet 4-1 ratio snow in the morning, some afternoon melting while still snowing, then more fluffy snow in the evening. The excitement of the first snow never gets old.

[GaWx]

Euro Weeklies: coldest run yet for 1st 3 weeks in Dec for US overall. The maps don’t even have a speck of warmer than normal in the entire Conus except for S TX and S/C FL.

Dec 1-7:

 

Dec 8-14:

 

Dec 15-21:

[jm1220]

19 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Euro Weeklies: coldest run yet for 1st 3 weeks in Dec for US overall. The maps don’t even have a speck of warmer than normal in the entire Conus except for S TX and S/C FL.

Dec 1-7:

 

Dec 8-14:

 

Dec 15-21:

Good, maybe we can make something happen here snow wise in Dec for the first time since 2020. 

[FPizz]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Good, maybe we can make something happen here snow wise in Dec for the first time since 2020. 

White Christmas here last year due to snow before the holiday.  1st time in a while.

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Euro Weeklies: coldest run yet for 1st 3 weeks in Dec for US overall. The maps don’t even have a speck of warmer than normal in the entire Conus except for S TX and S/C FL.
Dec 1-7:

 
Dec 8-14:

 
Dec 15-21:

I absolutely believe it. Front-loaded, classic canonical Niña December. Literally everything and I mean everything, atmospheric and oceanic is 100% La Niña. SOI, ENSO SSTs, subsurface, ONI/RONI, enhanced trade winds/EWBs, -PDO, OLR, -IOD, global longwave pattern, -PMM, MJO behavior, -AAM (about to tank negative again). All La Nina. No reason to doubt it or question it. Textbook canonical La Niña winter inbound….

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Euro Weeklies: coldest run yet for 1st 3 weeks in Dec for US overall. The maps don’t even have a speck of warmer than normal in the entire Conus except for S TX and S/C FL.

Dec 1-7:

 

Dec 8-14:

 

Dec 15-21:

The absolute lack of any warm signal in December from the Euro Weeklies day after day, especially in an era when longrange models often climo-correct themselves/lean warm, is a great sign. Im surprisingly in agreement with snowman in that it is textbook La Nina.

Ive said it many times, historically December is a great winter month in a La Nina in the Great Lakes, and last December was on the mild side and very underwhelming, despite my having high hopes initially. Then again, Feb was cold, constant deep winter, another unusual month that didnt follow the La Nina textbook. Ill roll the dice and gamble on a cold, snowy December and worry about February when it gets here lol.

[roardog]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

The absolute lack of any warm signal in December from the Euro Weeklies day after day, especially in an era when longrange models often climo-correct themselves/lean warm, is a great sign. Im surprisingly in agreement with snowman in that it is textbook La Nina.

Ive said it many times, historically December is a great winter month in a La Nina in the Great Lakes, and last December was on the mild side and very underwhelming, despite my having high hopes initially. Then again, Feb was cold, constant deep winter, another unusual month that didnt follow the La Nina textbook. Ill roll the dice and gamble on a cold, snowy December and worry about February when it gets here lol.

Yeah. To really have a great winter around here, you need a wintry December. Without all three months it’s hard to label the winter as great imo. When winter doesn’t start until January, it feels like it’s over prematurely by March because it feels short at that point regardless of how good it is.

[michsnowfreak]

Just now, roardog said:

Yeah. To really have a great winter around here, you need a wintry December. Without all three months it’s hard to label the winter as great imo. When winter doesn’t start until January, it feels like it’s over prematurely by March because it feels short at that point regardless of how good it is.

I agree to a point. Some of the recent years with unusually wintry novembers followed by unusually tame Decembers was weird. To happen once, no biggie. But it happened multiple times. But then, sometimes you get slammed in January and February and forget about how December was meh. Especially since December is busy with Christmas activities and January and February are boring.

All that said, I'm really hoping for a great December then when January starts we will worry about that. One month at a time. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

The absolute lack of any warm signal in December from the Euro Weeklies day after day, especially in an era when longrange models often climo-correct themselves/lean warm, is a great sign. Im surprisingly in agreement with snowman in that it is textbook La Nina.

Ive said it many times, historically December is a great winter month in a La Nina in the Great Lakes, and last December was on the mild side and very underwhelming, despite my having high hopes initially. Then again, Feb was cold, constant deep winter, another unusual month that didnt follow the La Nina textbook. Ill roll the dice and gamble on a cold, snowy December and worry about February when it gets here lol.

We weren’t in full, across the board La Niña mode yet at this time last year like we are now. Just to name one, remember how positive the AAM was early on? That’s an El Nino signal. The OLR early on last year is another example. I honestly can’t think of a one single non Niña aspect to the ocean or the atmosphere right now

[George001]

43 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We weren’t in full, across the board La Niña mode yet at this time last year like we are now. Just to name one, remember how positive the AAM was early on? That’s an El Nino signal. The OLR early on last year is another example. I honestly can’t think of a one single non Niña aspect to the ocean or the atmosphere right now

We are already seeing some of the differences compared to last year. I don’t remember seeing big snows in the Midwest this early last year. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Roundy’s plots look good for the tail end of this month into early-mid December. You won’t like what they show for mid-late December however. Stadiumwave mentioned that fact last week

That is exactly how my outlook is.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, BlizzardWx said:

On my page you can plot the daily values for most of the indices anybody cares about. RONI is below -1.2 now. 

https://weathersigma.com/sst?i=RONI

The tri monthly value? I find that hard to believe.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

It updated again though. The update briefly shifts trough west but then the -EPO comes back with a vengeance & it stays very wintry look through entire month of JAN with trough east.  That is what led to whoever posted that on X. In the original X-post Roundy gives explantation of the tool:

 

https://x.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1987512542269218907?t=NZtDEqvG5ceU83Q9TrzQ9g&s=19

I have it going to crap around Xmas and then going +TNH mid January.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 11/7/2025 at 11:40 AM, snowman19 said:

One thing is for sure, this La Niña is and has been exactly mimicking a classic canonical La Niña pattern to a tee. I see absolutely no reason to think it’s going to deviate at all from such in the coming months
 

 

 

 

 

I do; the stratosphere.

[GaWx]

34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The tri monthly value? I find that hard to believe.

That -1.2 is the RONI daily equivalent value, not trimonth, and that seems legit. OTOH, the last released trimonth RONI was -0.78.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

That -1.2 is the RONI daily equivalent value, not trimonth, and that seems legit. OTOH, the last released trimonth RONI was -0.78.

Okay, that's what I figured. I don't care about that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think my RONI peak was -1 to -1.2. I don't grade that, but do it for $hits and usually nail it.

[jm1220]

4 hours ago, FPizz said:

White Christmas here last year due to snow before the holiday.  1st time in a while.

Hopefully we get the 4”+ in Central Park that 7 of 8 times in a Nina led to a snowy winter. The White Christmas was nice for sure but the story of the rest of winter was piddly snow events and cold/dry suppression then cutter/warm for the bigger storms other than the one lucky 4-6” SWFE. 

[stadiumwave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have it going to crap around Xmas and then going +TNH mid January.

Yea, the goods last long in DEC than 1st half. I was really loose with wording.

And of course, we have to break before Christmas & have temporary blowtorch to get through Christmas, ha. 

[leo2000]

44 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

Yea, the goods last long in DEC than 1st half. I was really loose with wording.

And of course, we have to break before Christmas & have temporary blowtorch to get through Christmas, ha. 

I think that's unlikely based on what happened last Christmas I can see it being similar. Plus, I think we are going to an early SSW locked in for size weeks starting around first week of December last into mid January then the annual January thaw the pv reconsolidating and the some weaker again of the pv allowing for stretching of the pv but no more SSW but will allow winter cold and snow to return. 

[stadiumwave]

10 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

I think that's unlikely based on what happened last Christmas I can see it being similar. Plus, I think we are going to an early SSW locked in for size weeks starting around first week of December last into mid January then the annual January thaw the pv reconsolidating and the some weaker again of the pv allowing for stretching of the pv but no more SSW but will allow winter cold and snow to return. 

 

Sounds good to me! Hope that wins out!

[BlizzardWx]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The tri monthly value? I find that hard to believe.

No, it's a daily value. It's gone down a good bit the last little while.