2025-2026 ENSO

[EastonSN+]

33 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 90s were odd depending where you were.  92-93 and 96-97 sucked in NYC and the metro but basically everywhere else in the northeast they were good winters.  93-94 95-96 were the only two that were really universally good winters for snow most areas.  At least most agree that 90-91 91-92 94-95 97-98 sucked everywhere though 

96/97 was terrible here in SW connecticut. 92/93 ended up average for snowfall.

Only 93/94 and 95/96 were above average here for the decade. 

96/97 through 99/00 were abysmal.

[Jersey Andrew]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

If a AO-/NAO-/PNA+ pattern develops, it would have a higher frequency of snowfall in the New York City area and Northeast. Right now, the EPS shows the AO and NAO going negative toward November 25. The PNA remains neutral. But at this range, there's little skill. So, here are the numbers for New York City for November 25-December 10. 

Add an EPO-, and the respective percentages are 5.6%, 4.5%, 2.2% (89 cases) with all other cases being 3.2%, 1.4%, and 0.5% respectively (631 cases). The EPS shows an EPO-.

It should also be noted that numerous La Niña winters have gotten off to a fast start in terms of snowfall.

Separately, there's a race in time between what might be a potentially favorable snowfall pattern and a dismal snowfall statistic for New York City. Through October 31, New York City has gone 1,371 consecutive days without a 4" or above daily snowfall. The same applies for a 5" or above daily snowfall. The futility record for both cases is 1,394 consecutive days (February 22, 1929 - December 16, 1932). The futility record could be tied on November 23 and broken on November 24.

Stunning how NYC has missed out on moderate snowfall last few years after blockbuster storms in 2010s. Down here in DC area we have fared better last few seasons. Still hoping for that January 2016 redux up and down East Coast. What do you think Don?

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There was just a ton of bad luck.  It wasn’t so much the winter patterns were bad outside of 82-83 84-85 and 88-89.  Even 89-90 December was decent it was just that everything got suppressed 

Wasn't 89/90 record warmth in January and February? That year was the opposite of 2014/2015 w/r/t the complete patter flip.

There was another winter after that in the early 90s i remember wearing short sleeves in February to school.

Last year was a great example of a ton of bad luck. The Delmarva area and my old vacation spot of ocean city maryland are loving the past few years! Got to head south for snow.

96/97 through 99/00 were bad patterns.

All in all after personally living through both periods what we have experienced is similar, which is why I am not worried yet. Lol if this period surpasses 30 years I will worry.

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Stunning how NYC has missed out on moderate snowfall last few years after blockbuster storms in 2010s. Down here in DC area we have fared better last few seasons. Still hoping for that January 2016 redux up and down East Coast. What do you think Don?

NYC did great 2000 through 2018.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Wasn't 89/90 record warmth in January and February? That year was the opposite of 2014/2015 w/r/t the complete patter flip.

There was another winter after that in the early 90s i remember wearing short sleeves in February to school.

14-15 had a cold November, though. It was more like December was the outlier warm month.

I think that had to be 90-91. That was a wall-to-wall warm winter, which continued into spring and summer. Almost like a 11-12 redux.

[donsutherland1]

53 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Stunning how NYC has missed out on moderate snowfall last few years after blockbuster storms in 2010s. Down here in DC area we have fared better last few seasons. Still hoping for that January 2016 redux up and down East Coast. What do you think Don?

With a generally quiet subtropical jet, I suspect that any large snowstorms are more likely to be of the Miller B variety. Those typically favor the northern Mid-Atlantic/New England or New England. 

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 90s were odd depending where you were.  92-93 and 96-97 sucked in NYC and the metro but basically everywhere else in the northeast they were good winters.  93-94 95-96 were the only two that were really universally good winters for snow most areas.  At least most agree that 90-91 91-92 94-95 97-98 sucked everywhere though 

For me, the 80s averaged more snow than the 90s, and people always say the 80s sucked.  The 80s were more consistent, even if that meant a bit below average, whereas the 90s had 2 boom years and several well below average.  

[GaWx]

Credit to Chris and Don for bringing this strong correlation to the board’s attention:

 Whether Dec snow at NYC is 3”+ has been a good indicator of how Jan+ has done since 1980-1:

-a whopping 23 of 28 (82%) Dec’s with <3” had <22” Jan+

-but only 4 of 17 (24%) Dec’s with 3”+ had <22” Jan+

 So, watch Dec NYC snow closely!

 Correlation didn’t work before 1980. Anyone know why?

@donsutherland1@bluewave

 

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Wasn't 89/90 record warmth in January and February? That year was the opposite of 2014/2015 w/r/t the complete patter flip.

There was another winter after that in the early 90s i remember wearing short sleeves in February to school.

Last year was a great example of a ton of bad luck. The Delmarva area and my old vacation spot of ocean city maryland are loving the past few years! Got to head south for snow.

96/97 through 99/00 were bad patterns.

All in all after personally living through both periods what we have experienced is similar, which is why I am not worried yet. Lol if this period surpasses 30 years I will worry.

Jan/Feb 90 was the highest AO/NAO ever I think other than Jan/Feb 1989.  I still think its the record now though 2018 or 2020 may have surpassed it.  In general there's been tendencies near the solar max if you have a persistently -AO/NAO in Nov/Dec it can be a problematic issue in Jan/Feb where it swings wildly to be strongly positive.    We saw this a bit in 2000-01 too, the AO remained negative in Jan/Feb but the NAO went significantly positive the remainder of the winter.

[EasternLI]

Curious to see how the mjo behaves this week. Eps dampens the wave as it has been throughout. Gefs is more amped. But, both of those things are known biases of each respectively as far as I know (lol). In real time thus far the Gefs has been verifying better (stronger). That doesn't necessarily mean that will continue though. Nobody knows for certain, we watch. Looking forward to the CPC update on Monday. For now here's Gefs and eps forecasts followed by the current map. There does appear to be kelvin wave like feature visible too on these charts, slicing through the overall mjo signal at faster speed. Those have been a catalyst in propagating this event thus far according to other CPC updates. How well are they modeled? 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The period from 1979-1993 sucked for snow in the I-95 corridor. The biggest storm of that entire 14 year period was the February, 1983 Megalopolis blizzard

The 1979 to 1993 period was a snowfall bonanza along the I-95 corridor from DC to Boston compared to 2019 to 2025 .That’s due to the colder storm tracks and overall colder winter pattern back then. These days we have to contend with warmer storm tracks and warmer winters.

1979 to 1993 average snowfall

DCA….16.7”

PHL….20.5”

NYC….20.1”

BOS….34.6”

Avg…..23.0”

2019 to 2025 average snowfall

DCA…8.5”

PHL…10.5”

NYC…14.9”

BOS….26.6”

Avg….15.1”

 

 

[snowman19]

I’m starting to really doubt the MJO wave makes it past phase 6/7 before it dies and ends up back in the IO. I think it’s a combination of the record breaking -IOD and the rather healthy La Niña we have
 

 

Saw a tweet this morning from someone who was perplexed at how weak the STJ has been….not really a shock with a Niña and the strong -PMM that has developed

 

 

[bluewave]

20 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

It wasnt just great, 2013-14 was the most severe winter on record in southeast MI. It followed multiple harsh winters beginning in 2002-03. The mild regime since has been concentrated on a handful of very warm winters and some average ones. Snowfall hasn't suffered greatly compared to longterm average, but took a steep decline from the record 2005-2015 stretch.

1993-1994 to 2014-2015 was the golden age for snowfall at many locations with new all-time seasonal highs being set. A sweet spot between the colder and drier winter regime prior to this era. We had just enough warming to add moisture for all the record snows but not too much like over the last decade leading to the reduction in snowfall. 

Time Series Summary for Detroit Area, MI (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2014-05-31	94.9	0
2	1881-05-31	79.4	31
3	1926-05-31	78.0	0
4	1982-05-31	74.0	0
5	2008-05-31	71.7	0

 

Time Series Summary for STATE COLLEGE, PA
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1	1994-05-31	109.3	0
2	1996-05-31	99.0	0
3	1978-05-31	98.2	0
4	1993-05-31	92.5	0
5	1961-05-31	91.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2010-05-31	56.1	0
2	1899-05-31	54.4	0
3	1905-05-31	46.8	0
4	1922-05-31	46.5	0
5	1996-05-31	46.0	0
-	1909-05-31	46.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for Baltimore Area, MD (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2010-05-31	77.0	0
2	1996-05-31	62.5	1
3	2003-05-31	58.1	0
4	1964-05-31	51.8	0
5	1899-05-31	51.1	0

 

Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2010-05-31	78.7	0
2	2014-05-31	68.0	0
3	1996-05-31	65.5	0
4	1899-05-31	55.4	0
5	1978-05-31	54.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1996-05-31	75.6	0
2	1948-05-31	63.9	0
3	2011-05-31	61.9	0
4	1923-05-31	60.4	0
5	1873-05-31	60.2	0

 

Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2015-05-31	110.6	0
2	1996-05-31	107.6	0
3	1994-05-31	96.3	0
4	1948-05-31	89.2	0
5	2005-05-31	86.6	0

 

[SnowGoose69]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I’m starting to really doubt the MJO wave makes it past phase 6/7 before it dies and ends up back in the IO. I think it’s a combination of the record breaking -IOD and the rather healthy La Niña we have
 

 

Saw a tweet this morning from someone who was perplexed at how weak the STJ has been….not really a shock with a Niña and the strong -PMM that has developed

 

 

As I said last winter and what mostly transpired, the MJO can be in bad phases as long as its weak or just mostly nonexistent which was the case last winter most of the time.  You just don't want it strongly in 3-4-5 all winter

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I’m starting to really doubt the MJO wave makes it past phase 6/7 before it dies and ends up back in the IO. I think it’s a combination of the record breaking -IOD and the rather healthy La Niña we have
 

 

Saw a tweet this morning from someone who was perplexed at how weak the STJ has been….not really a shock with a Niña and the strong -PMM that has developed

 

 

I am just happy to see some cooling in the IO, even if its CURRENTLY in the wrong spot.

[snowman19]

22 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I am just happy to see some cooling in the IO, even if its CURRENTLY in the wrong spot.

Correct. A cold western IO and a warm eastern IO is textbook negative IOD. If you notice on the SST charts, the western IO is still cooling very rapidly. I believe we are nearing the peak, probably within the next 2 weeks or so and I have very good confidence based on the ongoing cooling and the last weekly update that this event reaches or exceeds -2, which would make it one of the strongest -IOD events in history. It already set a weekly record (since 2000) on the last update

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 10/31/2025 at 10:15 AM, snowman19 said:

I think the biggest issue is the record strong -IOD event ongoing. Just posted on this earlier. That is definitely going to have global consequences in how the forcing goes, December in particular. You aren’t going to have an event this strong and not effect the tropical forcing patterns, especially in the early part of met winter 

December 1995 was pretty strong, too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 10/31/2025 at 12:40 PM, snowman19 said:

To answer your question more specifically, this was literally just posted on X 15 min ago:

“The question many people ask is: is MJO good? Does it propagate in the CPAC?
Not an easy answer since there are many factors that influence atmospheric circulation, first of all the IOD and secondly the ENSO.
A strongly negative phase of the IOD increases tropical convection, enhancing it on the maritime continent with strong WWB, while a negative ENSO with colder SST over the central Pacific (La Nina CP) favors strong EWB on the international date line (180°).

This situation sees strong diverging trade winds in the equatorial area.
A strong propagation above the CPAC (upward converging heat fluxes) is excluded, if not a rapid phase but with a weak magnitude, there could still be some weak effect even in the mid-latitudes to be evaluated later. The Hovmoller diagram at 850hpa shows this rapid passage of WWB over the CPAC due to the support of a gravitational kelvin wave.

The PV could remain weak at the moment due to the eQBO with a probable Canadian Warming whose effects will affect America and less Europe.

With these variables, the atmospheric circulation will remain blocked with a tropical convection that will remain on the maritime continent with difficulty in propagating over the Pacific”

 

 

 

 

I'm glad that you clarified exactly what you were insinuating with these nebulous -IOD inferences. I am going to post my outlook either next weekend or more likely early the week of Nov 10th and will look into this a great deal since ENSO in and of itself is pretty clear. It seems like you are implying that this weak east-central based event will act like a Modoki event because of the -IOD? I don't have an issue with that in a vacuum, since other factors easily overwhelm the Modoki index when ENSO is weak, however, if you look back at 2008, which you have compared this -IOD event to on several occasions, that did not happen. And that event actual was Modoki.  It made it to phase 7 in December, all the way around in January and even kissed phase 8 again briefly in February before hitting phase 8 again at high amplitude in March.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Now, maybe the west warm pool changes that? We will have to see.

[GaWx]

 One year ago today the daily WCS PDO was ~-2.25. On 10/31/25, it was -1.29:

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

As I said last winter and what mostly transpired, the MJO can be in bad phases as long as its weak or just mostly nonexistent which was the case last winter most of the time.  You just don't want it strongly in 3-4-5 all winter

Unfortunately, it was just strong enough in the 5-7 phases last February to really pump the Southeast ridge and force the best snows up closer to Toronto. We got the classic weakening before 8 which has been common since February 2022. Even when we got the phase 8 in March 2023, it favored the higher elevations of the Northeast for the best snows.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I will say, February 2008 was much higher amplitude in the MC, but not the case in the other months

[GaWx]

 

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I’m starting to really doubt the MJO wave makes it past phase 6/7 before it dies and ends up back in the IO. I think it’s a combination of the record breaking -IOD and the rather healthy La Niña we have
 

 

Saw a tweet this morning from someone who was perplexed at how weak the STJ has been….not really a shock with a Niña and the strong -PMM that has developed

 

 

We’ll see. Latest MJO forecasts:

1. GEFS, which has been doing much better than EPS as is often the case in this part of the diagram (10/20-3 GEFS runs had today in moderate 5/6 while EPS was a fail with inside circle): slowly headed to strong 6 in direction of strong 7

2. EPS: headed to moderate 7:

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 11/1/2025 at 12:14 AM, stadiumwave said:

New CanSips looks pretty good for DJF. Dec looks really good & Jan not shabby either. I would share but I cannot get anything to share on this forum anymore. Everything is too big. Good grief, it is 2025.

I post images on my blog and then copy and paste as a work around to this forum's limitations.

[snowman19]

34 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 One year ago today the daily WCS daily PDO was ~-2.25. On 10/31/25, it was -1.29:

Is the PDO weaker negative than last year at this time yes. But the La Niña is much better established this time around than last year, which was a late bloomer Niña…cooler Nino region SSTs, EWBs/enhanced trades started earlier this year,  the eastern PAC (GOA, along the west coast of NA and down to Baja) is cooler and there is a very pronounced -PMM (very supportive of Nina) whereas last year we had a +PMM at this time. Also, much deeper and well established +SOI and a deeply negative AAM (Nina). Would love to see what the MEI is but that doesn’t update anymore

@GaWx Edit: The deeply negative -IOD speaks for itself as far as being very supportive of La Niña/constructive interference 

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, GaWx said:

Credit to Chris and Don for bringing this strong correlation to the board’s attention:

 Whether Dec snow at NYC is 3”+ has been a good indicator of how Jan+ has done since 1980-1:

-a whopping 23 of 28 (82%) Dec’s with <3” had <22” Jan+

-but only 4 of 17 (24%) Dec’s with 3”+ had <22” Jan+

 So, watch Dec NYC snow closely!

 Correlation didn’t work before 1980. Anyone know why?

@donsutherland1@bluewave

 

The December level for snowfall at NYC, EWR, and LGA is 4”. There have been 15 La Niña winters between 95-96 and 24-25. The December 4” snowfall indicator has correctly worked 14 out of 15 times.

The under 4” December snowfall last winter was a good early indicator for the rest of the season at  the 3 stations for a below average finish. This must be due to La Ninas being frontloaded in nature and December showing the seasonal pattern early.

The only time it didn’t work was the 16-17 La Niña. For Decembers with under 4” at those stations the seasonal totals went on to finish below average. For the Decembers with more than 4” during La Ninas the seasons finished above average snowfall.

So a 93% success rate between 95-96 and 24-25.

 

OCT to APR Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2024-2025

0.0

0.0

2.8

3.0

7.1

0.0

0.0

12.9

2022-2023	0.0	0.0	T	T	2.2	0.1	0.0	2.3
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.2	15.3	2.0	0.4	0.0	17.9
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	10.5	2.1	26.0	T	0.0	38.6

2017-2018	0.0	T	7.7	11.2	4.9	11.6	5.5	40.9
2016-2017	0.0	T	3.2	7.9	9.4	9.7	0.0	30.2

2011-2012	2.9	0.0	0.0	4.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	7.4
2010-2011	0.0	T	20.1	36.0	4.8	1.0	T	61.9

2008-2009	0.0	T	6.0	9.0	4.3	8.3	T	27.6
2007-2008	0.0	T	2.9	T	9.0	T	0.0	11.9

2005-2006

0.0

T

9.7

2.0

26.9

1.3

0.1

40.0

2000-2001	T	0.0	13.4	8.3	9.5	3.8	0.0	35.0
1999-2000	0.0	0.0	T	9.5	5.2	0.4	1.2	16.3
1998-1999	0.0	0.0	2.0	4.5	1.7	4.5	0.0	12.7

1995-1996

0.0

2.9

11.5

26.1

21.2

13.2

0.7

75.6

[snowman19]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The December level for snowfall at NYC, EWR, and LGA is 4”. There have been 15 La Niña winters between 95-96 and 24-25. The December 4” snowfall indicator has correctly worked 14 out of 15 times.

The under 4” December snowfall last winter was a good early indicator for the rest of the season at  the 3 stations for a below average finish. This must be due to La Ninas being frontloaded in nature and December showing the seasonal pattern early.

The only time it didn’t work was the 16-17 La Niña. For Decembers with under 4” at those stations the seasonal totals went on to finish below average. For the Decembers with more than 4” during La Ninas the seasons finished above average snowfall.

So a 93% success rate between 95-96 and 24-25.

 

 

In particular, when November sees no measurable snowfall then December goes on to see below average snowfall during a La Niña, it very strongly corresponds to a below to well below average season. Obviously not 100% and I’m sure people can find exceptions to that rule over the course of 100+ years of weather record keeping, but as a sweeping generality it works very well

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Is the PDO weaker negative than last year at this time yes. But the La Niña is much better established this time around than last year, which was a late bloomer Niña…cooler Nino region SSTs, EWBs/enhanced trades started earlier this year,  the eastern PAC (GOA, along the west coast of NA and down to Baja) is cooler and there is a very pronounced -PMM (very supportive of Nina) whereas last year we had a +PMM at this time. Also, much deeper and well established +SOI and a deeply negative AAM (Nina). Would love to see what the MEI is but that doesn’t update anymore

@GaWx Edit: The deeply negative -IOD speaks for itself as far as being very supportive of La Niña/constructive interference 

MEI we don't have, but the RONI is identical. I agree it's probably a tic stronger, but it's rather insignificant. I think you are overstating that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

@snowman19, it's a weak La Nina...nothing is supportive of anything stronger. Zero.. I agree that ultimately it will get close to the moderate threshold, but not right now.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The December level for snowfall at NYC, EWR, and LGA is 4”. There have been 15 La Niña winters between 95-96 and 24-25. The December 4” snowfall indicator has correctly worked 14 out of 15 times.

The only time it didn’t work was the 16-17 La Niña. For Decembers with under 4” at those stations the seasonal totals went on to finish below average. For the Decembers with more than 4” during La Ninas the seasons finished above average snowfall.

So a 93% success rate between 95-96 and 24-25.

 

 

 Thanks, Chris. I forgot that your analysis of Dec NYC area snow is just for La Niña winters.