MJO812 Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago You want p7. Those T storms will attack the strat . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Having a weak polar vortex bolds well for an early start to winter for the midwest and east . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Generally not a fan of the RMM MJO charts. However, I think these euro weekly ones are beneficial. Mainly to visualize what the individual members are doing inside the mean and for trends. IMHO, not sure how anyone can call what happens with this event currently with any confidence. Still think it's too early. With that being said, lets look at the trend over the past week wrt this event. EC 46 one week ago versus today's forecast. A few things are noticeable. The verification vs the forecast from a week ago has been much higher in amplitude. With verification higher than the highest ensemble members forecast. The mean which was spiraling off into the COD is no longer doing so with a signal into the Pacific now. Also interestingly, later in the forecast period, there are many more members with renewed amplification in the Pacific now on today's run which just updated. This is still worth watching... One week ago: Today: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 51 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Having a weak polar vortex bolds well for an early start to winter for the midwest and east . All indications are that the SPV is going to strengthen in November right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 16 minutes ago, snowman19 said: All indications are that the SPV is going to strengthen in November right now Doesn’t it pretty much always strengthen in November as we head into Winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 48 minutes ago Author Share Posted 48 minutes ago 14 hours ago, bluewave said: Nino 1.2 continues to run warmer than 3.4. This has been the recent theme with the EWBs not able to penetrate closer to the SA coast. It all began with the record WWB near the SA coast back in March 2023. This doesn't really affect the EMI very much since 1.2 is so minuscule and variable....the reason the EMI is biased east based is because La Niña has and will continue to be centered in region 3 and the eastern half of 3.4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 34 minutes ago Share Posted 34 minutes ago 4 hours ago, roardog said: Doesn’t it pretty much always strengthen in November as we head into Winter? No, it can stay weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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