2025-2026 ENSO

[snowman19]

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2019-2020 was pretty damn positive.

I never said I think we are going to have a +EPO winter, I simply pointed out that we haven’t had a wall to wall +EPO winter since 11-12. Not sure why you think I was implying that for this winter, which I certainly am not 

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I never said I think we are going to have a +EPO winter, I simply pointed out that we haven’t had a wall to wall +EPO winter since 11-12. Not sure why you think I was implying that for this winter, which I certainly am not 

No, I wasn't implying that.....the implication was as stated....we are due for more aggressive regresson in other areas. I think wall-to-wall anything is difficult to pull off....2011-2012 did it, but February was close.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2020-2021 was actually a pretty positive EPO, too...just wasn't that warm.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

12-13: ENSO neutral

13-14: ENSO neutral

14-15: warm neutral/weak el nino

15-16: super el nino

16-17: weak la nina

17-18: weak la nina

18-19: weak el nino

19-20: warm neutral/weak el nino

20-21: moderate la nina

21-22: moderate la nina

22-23: moderate la nina (but dissipating)

23-24: strong el nino

24-25: ENSO neutral

I count 5 la nina years, 3 el nino years (2 strong ones), 2 borderline warm neutral/weak el nino years, and and 3 ENSO neutral years. If you want to make it 15, then you've got your 7 la nina years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

48 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

12-13: ENSO neutral

13-14: ENSO neutral

14-15: warm neutral/weak el nino

15-16: super el nino

16-17: weak la nina

17-18: weak la nina

18-19: weak el nino

19-20: warm neutral/weak el nino

20-21: moderate la nina

21-22: moderate la nina

22-23: moderate la nina (but dissipating)

23-24: strong el nino

24-25: ENSO neutral

I count 5 la nina years, 3 el nino years (2 strong ones), 2 borderline warm neutral/weak el nino years, and and 3 ENSO neutral years. If you want to make it 15, then you've got your 7 la nina years.

I looked back to 2016-2017....so not 10 years yet, but it will be because we aren't having an El Nino this season.

I will give you 2018-2019 as a weak El Nino, but not 2019-2020...that was neutral. And if you are going to consider 2018-2019 El Nino, which is fine, then you have to consider 2024-2025 weak La Nina.

Lets be consistent here.

[Terpeast]

2024-25 was mostly neutral and very very borderline weak Nina. One could make a case in either direction.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

12-13: ENSO neutral

13-14: ENSO neutral

14-15: warm neutral/weak el nino

15-16: super el nino

16-17: weak la nina

17-18: weak la nina

18-19: weak el nino

19-20: warm neutral/weak el nino

20-21: moderate la nina

21-22: moderate la nina

22-23: moderate la nina (but dissipating)

23-24: strong el nino

24-25: ENSO neutral

I count 5 la nina years, 3 el nino years (2 strong ones), 2 borderline warm neutral/weak el nino years, and and 3 ENSO neutral years. If you want to make it 15, then you've got your 7 la nina years.

24-25 was weak La Niña IMO

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We are "due" for a lot of things right now, but +EPO wouldn't be the most prominent item on my list.

I mean...we have had 2 -WPO seasons over the past decade.....I haven't had one normal or above snowfall season in a decade. I won't include temps because we all know why that is. We have had 7 La Nina seasons out of 10 years, and 1 El Nino...and the El Nino season was still largely negated by the prominent cool ENSO hemispheric base state.

This is interesting wrt snow because you are at a safe enough latitude that mild winters can easily be snowier than avg. What first order station are you closest to for temps, ORH?

In terms of "being due". For here, i would roughly consider the era of above avg snow dominance to be from 2002-2015 and below avg snow dominance 2016-present, however the above was much more above than the below has been below. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

This is interesting wrt snow because you are at a safe enough latitude that mild winters can easily be snowier than avg. What first order station are you closest to for temps, ORH?

In terms of "being due". For here, i would roughly consider the era of above avg snow dominance to be from 2002-2015 and below avg snow dominance 2016-present, however the above was much more above than the below has been below. 

KLWM

It's a combo meal of bad patterns and bad luck...Chris is right that the PAC het has caused supression and cutters....but we have also had some bad breaks on a regional scale, and for me locally...we have had a couple of seasons that performed well regionally, but my specific area was still boned.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

23 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

2024-25 was mostly neutral and very very borderline weak Nina. One could make a case in either direction.

Yeah, 24-25 was, in terms of la nina, what 14-15 and 19-20 was for el nino. All are borderline cases, depending on threshold. At least with 14-15 and 19-20, you generally had a basewide warm neutral, maybe weak el nino (depending on what your threshold is, 0.4, 0.5, 3-trimonthlies, 5-trimonthlies, etc). With 24-25, you had a la nina in 3.4 and an el nino in 1+2. Heck, the 1+2 in 24-25 may have had a warmer anomoly than the warm neutral years of 14-15 and 19-20.

24-25 might be the hardest year to classify. Whether you consider it neutral or la nina, it really doesn't fit either in a traditional sense. No other year in history had a 3.4 and 1+2 as disjointed as 24-25.

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

2024-25 was mostly neutral and very very borderline weak Nina. One could make a case in either direction.

Not really debatable that it's a weak La Nina unless you soley rely on the archaic ONI.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, 24-25 was, in terms of la nina, what 14-15 and 19-20 was for el nino. All are borderline cases, depending on threshold. At least with 14-15 and 19-20, you generally had a basewide warm neutral, maybe weak el nino (depending on what your threshold is, 0.4, 0.5, 3-trimonthlies, 5-trimonthlies, etc). With 24-25, you had a la nina in 3.4 and an el nino in 1+2. Heck, the 1+2 in 24-25 may have had a warmer anomoly than the warm neutral years of 14-15 and 19-20.

24-25 might be the hardest year to classify. Whether you consider it neutral or la nina, it really doesn't fit either in a traditional sense. No other year in history had a 3.4 and 1+2 as disjointed as 24-25.

No...it wasn't. You keep asserting this, but check your facts. The MEI briefly touched 0.5 for one bi-monthlyh period and the RONI peaked at .24 in OND.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2024-2025 peaked with a RONI of -1.12 and an MEI of 1..borderline moderate.

It was certainly a La Nina, again, unless you are tethering yourself to the ONI, which is ill-advised. It's important to be wholistic considering CC.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

2024-25 was mostly neutral and very very borderline weak Nina. One could make a case in either direction.

Based on RONI, 2024-5 was a moderate La Niña:

ASO  2024 -0.75
SON  2024 -0.81
OND  2024 -0.92
NDJ  2024 -1.07
DJF  2025 -1.12
JFM  2025 -0.89
FMA  2025 -0.67

Related to this, the Australian BoM has switched from ONI to RONI for its official model forecasts: says we’re already in a weak La Niña though it will weaken starting in Nov:

[40/70 Benchmark]

57 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Based on RONI, 2024-5 was a moderate La Niña:

ASO  2024 -0.75
SON  2024 -0.81
OND  2024 -0.92
NDJ  2024 -1.07
DJF  2025 -1.12
JFM  2025 -0.89
FMA  2025 -0.67

Related to this, the Australian BoM has switched from ONI to RONI for its official model forecasts: says we’re already in a weak La Niña though it will weaken starting in Nov:

I wish CPC would do this...CC has exacerbated this disconnect to the point where I make my own intensity composites now and don't even use CPC.

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

This is interesting wrt snow because you are at a safe enough latitude that mild winters can easily be snowier than avg. What first order station are you closest to for temps, ORH?

In terms of "being due". For here, i would roughly consider the era of above avg snow dominance to be from 2002-2015 and below avg snow dominance 2016-present, however the above was much more above than the below has been below. 

Kind of the same for here years wise.  Above averaged 9" above for that duration 02-15, 16-now is 3" below.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

Does anyone know when the MEI will update? They said it was going to be late in June and just haven't updated since June 10...odd. I have just ingnored it this season, which sucks beause I usually like to use it.

[GaWx]

 The unptecedented for the 2nd half of the year (since MJO records started in 1974) very lengthy clockwise dominated track continues with still no end yet in sight. It started Sept 1st and is projected to continue at least through Oct 12th, which would mean 6 weeks long!

GEFS: clockwise at least through Oct 14th

EPS: clockwise at least through Oct 12th

@snowman19Has Roundy said anything about this?

[BlizzardWx]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The unptecedented for the 2nd half of the year (since MJO records started in 1974) very lengthy clockwise dominated track continues with still no end yet in sight. It started Sept 1st and is projected to continue at least through Oct 12th, which would mean 6 weeks long!

GEFS: clockwise at least through Oct 14th

EPS: clockwise at least through Oct 12th

 

Definitely unusual as you noted, but does it matter if the forcing is propagating the "wrong" direction? Off hand I am not sure why it necessarily matters directly, but indirectly it implies a weakness in potential analog forecasts. 

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

Definitely unusual as you noted, but does it matter if the forcing is propagating the "wrong" direction? Off hand I am not sure why it necessarily matters directly, but indirectly it implies a weakness in potential analog forecasts. 

 I don’t have the answer though it may not. But regardless, I just find it absolutely fascinating that it has and will continue to be dominated by the “wrong” way for 6 weeks. I can’t find any longer than about 1/2 month like this over the last 50 years in Jul-Dec. (I haven’t checked Jan-June.)

 What I’ve love to know is what unique set of factors is allowing this to happen?

[so_whats_happening]

12 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

Definitely unusual as you noted, but does it matter if the forcing is propagating the "wrong" direction? Off hand I am not sure why it necessarily matters directly, but indirectly it implies a weakness in potential analog forecasts. 

To me it just shows that forcing, namely maritime, is not ever omnipotent. Could it go back to being continuously 4-6 absolutely but currently regardless of what phase we seem to be globally open although weak in most locations, every single basin is firing off tropical activity right now.

While it is something we don't see all that often and for this persistent I don't see it more than that. 

[so_whats_happening]

29 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

To me it just shows that forcing, namely maritime, is not ever omnipotent. Could it go back to being continuously 4-6 absolutely but currently regardless of what phase we seem to be globally open although weak in most locations, every single basin is firing off tropical activity right now.

While it is something we don't see all that often and for this persistent I don't see it more than that. 

Although it does look like the 850mb wind field may be trying to change up. Lets see how it plays out

Last 90days and then the next 2 weeks potential.

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

KLWM

It's a combo meal of bad patterns and bad luck...Chris is right that the PAC het has caused supression and cutters....but we have also had some bad breaks on a regional scale, and for me locally...we have had a couple of seasons that performed well regionally, but my specific area was still boned.

Yeah that makes sense. Not terribly different from my avg temps. But yet another example of how snowfall is localized and very subject to other things than just the avg temp.

I wonder what a REASONABLE line or latitude is to draw a line and assume below that line is where you really need seasonable to colder than avg temps to get snow.

Based on a quick calculation, I get your DJF avg high/low as 38/20. Mine is 34/21.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, FPizz said:

Kind of the same for here years wise.  Above averaged 9" above for that duration 02-15, 16-now is 3" below.  

Yet another example how we were so spoiled back then lol.

For Detroit-

2002-2015 avg- 52.4”
2016-2025 avg- 39.1”
POR avg- 40.9”
 

[chris21]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yeah that makes sense. Not terribly different from my avg temps. But yet another example of how snowfall is localized and very subject to other things than just the avg temp.

I wonder what a REASONABLE line or latitude is to draw a line and assume below that line is where you really need seasonable to colder than avg temps to get snow.

Based on a quick calculation, I get your DJF avg high/low as 38/20. Mine is 34/21.

Mine is 40/18 in North Carolina. All elevation and location on the windward slopes.

[snowman19]

14 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The unptecedented for the 2nd half of the year (since MJO records started in 1974) very lengthy clockwise dominated track continues with still no end yet in sight. It started Sept 1st and is projected to continue at least through Oct 12th, which would mean 6 weeks long!

GEFS: clockwise at least through Oct 14th

EPS: clockwise at least through Oct 12th

@snowman19Has Roundy said anything about this?

Not that I’ve seen yet. I’ll let you know. The only thing he’s really commented on is that he doesn’t believe the “warm blob” is going to last into the winter and thinks a classic ‘cold horseshoe’ -PDO alignment is going to develop

[snowman19]

This drought situation is actually worse than last year at this time. We have been completely devoid of widespread heavy rains in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic since late July. October looks dry as far as the eye can see

[mitchnick]

October's Cansip run looks a lot like September's fwiw. Cooler up north of MD/PA line but on the dry side, except for March in ENE.

5H starts here:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025100100&fh=5

 

[snowman19]

23 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

October's Cansip run looks a lot like September's fwiw. Cooler up north of MD/PA line but on the dry side, except for March in ENE.

5H starts here:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025100100&fh=5

 

Yep. It did get cooler for Dec-Mar in the northeast since the last update, but boy does it have a strong dry signal from November-March in the east, with the lone exception of eastern New England for March like you said. That dry signal increased since the last update

[40/70 Benchmark]

55 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

October's Cansip run looks a lot like September's fwiw. Cooler up north of MD/PA line but on the dry side, except for March in ENE.

5H starts here:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025100100&fh=5

 

 

26 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yep. It did get cooler for Dec-Mar in the northeast since the last update, but boy does it have a strong dry signal from November-March in the east, with the lone exception of eastern New England for March like you said. That dry signal increased since the last update

JFM looks around normal precip for most of SNE....precip is probably the most inaccurate aspect of seasonals, anyway, which remain relatively inaccurate in general.

Seems like there maybe some late developing Miller B events that are going to pop in the N stream. Latest run has picked up on this more, as it's not as dry in New England.