2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

La nina by itself isn't always bad. Just as a deep -IOD isn't always bad by itself. But those two things in combination almost certainly spells a cooked winter.

If you have a la nina, you need a +IOD or near neutral IOD to have a chance. If you have a deep -IOD, you need an el nino or near ENSO neutral.

La nina and deep -IOD is just not going to work. Unless you're looking for a blowtorch winter and very little snow.

Not the case for New England. You tend to speak as though your climo applies to everyone.

[snowman19]

[FPizz]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I have to admit that it would be funny to see the NE Pacific cool back more than the W Pac and see how weenie forecasters would then spin it. Of course @snowman19would have a blast!

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

I have to admit that it would be funny to see the NE Pacific cool back more than the W Pac and see how weenie forecasters would then spin it.

Just this morning a pro met (no, not JB) said the warm blob was strengthening. Funny how some live in the Land of Make Believe

[anthonymm]

10 hours ago, GaWx said:

Was this one posted before? I get them all mixed up with their typically fictitious southern battle zones and NE blizzard watches and huge snowstorms and N Plains polar vortices and amazingly enough always warm/dry in the W where E US wx weenies conveniently don’t care:

 

https://www.powder.com/news/east-coast-blizzard-watch-winter

*Edit: I just noticed that this is the one posted yesterday that I even commented on lol. I told you guys I get these mixed up and this is proof!

Lol yeah the pattern in recent years has been the total opposite in fact. Cold out west, blowtorch in the east.

[anthonymm]

17 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Yeah the winter pattern is set. The warm blob's gonna go away, the western pac will boil. We'll get a horrible zonal pac jet that floods the east with warm mild air, and the rockies and west will get freezing cold and snowstorms every day. 22-23 / 23-24 repeat, but possibly worse.

[snowman19]

If this dry pattern continues into October and it looks like it will, my fear is that this drought has a chance of becoming worse than last fall….that dry pattern didn’t start until after mid-August, this one started at the tail end of July

[roardog]

I think these warm blobs are nothing more than a result of the pattern and not an influencer of the pattern. I think it could help feedback but no way can it overpower other influencing factors IMO.