2025-2026 ENSO

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

I’m pretty sure the model was forecasting all of that below average snow because it had a country wide blowtorch. So it was right for the wrong reason pretty much. 

Exactly. We averaged normal here. Model had us projected well below snowfall.

[GaWx]

 Here are the Sept Euro forecasts for DJF 2024-5 back to 2017-8 vs actual

2024-5 prog: avg 4F too warm much of US but SW close; grade: F

2024-5 actual

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/usclimdivs/climdiv.pl?variab=Temperature&type=1&base=7&mon1=12&mon2=2&iy[1]=2024&iy[2]=&iy[3]=&iy[4]=&iy[5]=&iy[6]=&iy[7]=&iy[8]=&iy[9]=&iy[10]=&iy[11]=&iy[12]=&iy[13]=&iy[14]=&iy[15]=&iy[16]=&iy[17]=&iy[18]=&iy[19]=&iy[20]=&iy[21]=&iy[22]=&iy[23]=&iy[24]=&iy[25]=&iy[26]=&iy[27]=&iy[28]=&iy[29]=&iy[30]=&irange1=&irange2=&xlow=-10&xhi=10&xint=1&iunits=1&scale=100&iwhite=1&iswitch=0&Submit=Create+Plot
 

2023-4 prog: MW 5-8 too cold, NE 3-4 too cold, SE 1-3 too cold, W close; grade D

 

2023-4 actual

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/usclimdivs/climdiv.pl?variab=Temperature&type=1&base=7&mon1=12&mon2=2&iy[1]=2023&iy[2]=&iy[3]=&iy[4]=&iy[5]=&iy[6]=&iy[7]=&iy[8]=&iy[9]=&iy[10]=&iy[11]=&iy[12]=&iy[13]=&iy[14]=&iy[15]=&iy[16]=&iy[17]=&iy[18]=&iy[19]=&iy[20]=&iy[21]=&iy[22]=&iy[23]=&iy[24]=&iy[25]=&iy[26]=&iy[27]=&iy[28]=&iy[29]=&iy[30]=&irange1=&irange2=&xlow=-10&xhi=10&xint=1&iunits=1&scale=100&iwhite=1&iswitch=0&Submit=Create+Plot

2022-3 prog: W MW 3 too warm; E MW and NE 3 too cold, SE 1-2 too cold, W 6 too warm; grade D

2022-3 actual

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/usclimdivs/climdiv.pl?variab=Temperature&type=1&base=7&mon1=12&mon2=2&iy[1]=2022&iy[2]=&iy[3]=&iy[4]=&iy[5]=&iy[6]=&iy[7]=&iy[8]=&iy[9]=&iy[10]=&iy[11]=&iy[12]=&iy[13]=&iy[14]=&iy[15]=&iy[16]=&iy[17]=&iy[18]=&iy[19]=&iy[20]=&iy[21]=&iy[22]=&iy[23]=&iy[24]=&iy[25]=&iy[26]=&iy[27]=&iy[28]=&iy[29]=&iy[30]=&irange1=&irange2=&xlow=-10&xhi=10&xint=1&iunits=1&scale=100&iwhite=1&iswitch=0&Submit=Create+Plot

2021-2 prog: pretty close except 2 too warm W; grade A

 

2021-2 actual

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/usclimdivs/climdiv.pl?variab=Temperature&type=1&base=7&mon1=12&mon2=2&iy[1]=2021&iy[2]=&iy[3]=&iy[4]=&iy[5]=&iy[6]=&iy[7]=&iy[8]=&iy[9]=&iy[10]=&iy[11]=&iy[12]=&iy[13]=&iy[14]=&iy[15]=&iy[16]=&iy[17]=&iy[18]=&iy[19]=&iy[20]=&iy[21]=&iy[22]=&iy[23]=&iy[24]=&iy[25]=&iy[26]=&iy[27]=&iy[28]=&iy[29]=&iy[30]=&irange1=&irange2=&xlow=-10&xhi=10&xint=1&iunits=1&scale=100&iwhite=1&iswitch=0&Submit=Create+Plot

 

 2020-1 prog: 0-4 too warm MW, 3 too warm NE/SE, SC 4-6 too warm, W 1-2 too warm; Grade D

2020-1 actual

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/usclimdivs/climdiv.pl?variab=Temperature&type=1&base=7&mon1=12&mon2=2&iy[1]=2020&iy[2]=&iy[3]=&iy[4]=&iy[5]=&iy[6]=&iy[7]=&iy[8]=&iy[9]=&iy[10]=&iy[11]=&iy[12]=&iy[13]=&iy[14]=&iy[15]=&iy[16]=&iy[17]=&iy[18]=&iy[19]=&iy[20]=&iy[21]=&iy[22]=&iy[23]=&iy[24]=&iy[25]=&iy[26]=&iy[27]=&iy[28]=&iy[29]=&iy[30]=&irange1=&irange2=&xlow=-10&xhi=10&xint=1&iunits=1&scale=100&iwhite=1&iswitch=0&Submit=Create+Plot

 

2019-20 prog: MW 2 too cold, NE close; SE 2-3 too cold, W 0-2 too cold; grade A

2019-20 actual:

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/usclimdivs/climdiv.pl?variab=Temperature&type=1&base=7&mon1=12&mon2=2&iy[1]=2019&iy[2]=&iy[3]=&iy[4]=&iy[5]=&iy[6]=&iy[7]=&iy[8]=&iy[9]=&iy[10]=&iy[11]=&iy[12]=&iy[13]=&iy[14]=&iy[15]=&iy[16]=&iy[17]=&iy[18]=&iy[19]=&iy[20]=&iy[21]=&iy[22]=&iy[23]=&iy[24]=&iy[25]=&iy[26]=&iy[27]=&iy[28]=&iy[29]=&iy[30]=&irange1=&irange2=&xlow=-10&xhi=10&xint=1&iunits=1&scale=100&iwhite=1&iswitch=0&Submit=Create+Plot

 

2018-9 prog: MW 1 too warm, NE close, SE 2-3 too cold, W 2-3 too warm; grade B

2018-9 actual

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/usclimdivs/climdiv.pl?variab=Temperature&type=1&base=7&mon1=12&mon2=2&iy[1]=2018&iy[2]=&iy[3]=&iy[4]=&iy[5]=&iy[6]=&iy[7]=&iy[8]=&iy[9]=&iy[10]=&iy[11]=&iy[12]=&iy[13]=&iy[14]=&iy[15]=&iy[16]=&iy[17]=&iy[18]=&iy[19]=&iy[20]=&iy[21]=&iy[22]=&iy[23]=&iy[24]=&iy[25]=&iy[26]=&iy[27]=&iy[28]=&iy[29]=&iy[30]=&irange1=&irange2=&xlow=-10&xhi=10&xint=1&iunits=1&scale=100&iwhite=1&iswitch=0&Submit=Create+Plot

 

2017-8 prog: MW 3 too warm, NE 2 too warm, SE/W close; Grade C

 

2017-8 actual

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/usclimdivs/climdiv.pl?variab=Temperature&type=1&base=7&mon1=12&mon2=2&iy[1]=2017&iy[2]=&iy[3]=&iy[4]=&iy[5]=&iy[6]=&iy[7]=&iy[8]=&iy[9]=&iy[10]=&iy[11]=&iy[12]=&iy[13]=&iy[14]=&iy[15]=&iy[16]=&iy[17]=&iy[18]=&iy[19]=&iy[20]=&iy[21]=&iy[22]=&iy[23]=&iy[24]=&iy[25]=&iy[26]=&iy[27]=&iy[28]=&iy[29]=&iy[30]=&irange1=&irange2=&xlow=-10&xhi=10&xint=1&iunits=1&scale=100&iwhite=1&iswitch=0&Submit=Create+Plot

———————

-GPA: 2.0

-Last 3 poor

-Best 2019-20 and 2021-2; worst 2024-5

-2 A, 1 B, 1 C, 3 D, 1 F

-The Sept ‘25 fcast for 2025-6 is for US as a whole the 2nd warmest to 2024-5 since 2017-8

-NE prog misses: +4, -3.5, -3, 0, +3, 0,  0, +2; so, NE prog was too warm thrice, too cold twice, and close thrice; So, NE prog on avg was only 0.3 F too warm vs actual meaning negligible bias vs actual though avg miss was by ~2 F

-MW prog misses: +4, -6.5, 0, 0, +2, -2, +1, +3; so, MW prog was too warm 4 times, too cold twice, and close twice; So, MW prog on avg was only 0.2 F too warm meaning negligible bias vs actual though avg miss was by ~2 F

-SE prog misses: +4, -2, -1.5, 0, +3, -2.5, -2.5, 0; so, SE prog was too warm twice, too cold 4 times, and close twice; So, SE prog on avg was only 0.2 F too cool vs actual meaning negligible bias vs actual though avg miss was by ~2 F

-W prog misses: +2, 0, +6, +2, +1.5, -1, +2.5, 0; so, W prog was too warm 5 times, too cold once, and close twice; So, W prog on avg was 1.6 F too warm! Thus, there appears to be a notable Euro warm bias for the W for winter at least in Sept progs. Avg miss was ~2 F

[raindancewx]

Some context on La Nina ACE through August. We finished at 39 in the Atlantic. 

30-50 La Nina ACE, through Aug 31 since 1930 () and then final ACE after the slash.

1942 (36.1) / 62.5

1956 (32.5) / 56.7

1964 (39.7) / 153

1998 (44.7) / 181.8

2000 (43.7) / 119.1

2007 (38.0) / 73.9

2010 (45.1) / 165.5

2011 (36.7) / 126.3

2016 (31.5) / 141.3 excluding the Jan 2016 system

2017 (30.4) / 224.9

2020 (43.0) / 179.8

2021 (44.4) / 145.7

Blended final total - 135.9. Ten most recent La Ninas average 146 ACE (2007-2024). October is almost always below 70 ACE even in hyper-active seasons, and Nov is almost always under 35 ACE even in hyper-active seasons. So the quiet September days start to add up pretty quick if you're behind with nothing active. If you throw out 2017 (since we're very unlikely to be anywhere near 175 ACE in Sept), you end up with a map consistent with my research showing the low ACE La Nina hurricane seasons have more frequent cold snaps in the Southwest.

2020 had the mid Sept/late Oct/Feb severe cold, Feb-Apr 2022 (and 2023) was very cold locally. Feb 2011 very cold. Jan 2008 is very cold. Nov-Jan 2000-01 is very cold. Dec 2011 very cold locally. 

September should be quite clarifying for which years in the group are the good matches. The Summer temperature pattern was fairly close to some kind of blend of 2007, 2020, 2021

[snowman19]

There is growing evidence that we may see a big shakeup and complete pattern flip by October to much warmer than normal and possibly much drier than normal as well. @Stormchaserchuck1 warned of this weeks ago….-PDO/-ENSO October correlation. The -IOD is magnifying those effects
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

snowman19 has been pretty accurate with his predictions. Don't underestimate him. 

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, roardog said:

I’m pretty sure the model was forecasting all of that below average snow because it had a country wide blowtorch. So it was right for the wrong reason pretty much. 

But the storm track matched the warm winter pattern it was forecasting. The composites below are for the 20 days that .20+ of precipitation fell from Philly to Boston. The average temperature at Philly to NYC on these days was in the low 40s. So it was too warm for much snow with the storm track to the west of the I-95 corridor.

The Euro seasonal precipitation forecast had above average near the Eastern Great Lakes matching the warmer storm track which verified. Plus there was major flooding in areas like West Virginia along this storm track. 

The Southeast ridge on the days when the wettest storms occurred was even more amplified than what the general seasonal forecast from the Euro was. Plus the warm departure on the heaviest storm days was significantly warmer than the seasonal temperature forecast.

So in effect a warmer version of the seasonal forecast did occur through the storm track. The Pacific Jet was too strong and warm for much snowfall from Philly to Boston relative to the means. This has been a common theme leading to the record low snowfall near I-95 since 2018-2019.

 

 

[snowman19]

This is a good point….Given the background climate change/AGW, have we entered the “new” -AMO cycle, which would explain the anemic Atlantic hurricane season? In the past, before CC really kicked in, cold North Atlantic SSTs (like we have now) was a staple of -AMO cycles. Just food for thought

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

snowman19 has been pretty accurate with his predictions. Don't underestimate him. 

Not exactly groundbreaking to predict AN temps and BN snows in winter in our new CC era climate. 

That's been the general theme since 2015. 

[SnoSki14]

17 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Pretty big fail last winter.

Because the usual seasonal forecasts that relied on past tools have become much more varied in our new CC era. 

There's too many variables that are interfering with one another and are producing outcomes we've never seen before. 

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

There is growing evidence that we may see a big shakeup and complete pattern flip by October to much warmer than normal and possibly much drier than normal as well. @Stormchaserchuck1 warned of this weeks ago….-PDO/-ENSO October correlation. The -IOD is magnifying those effects
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

One thing to keep in mind. Not that anyone should discount the Eps, but the AI EPS has done much better with the cooler air in the last month+ as I mentioned a few pages back and that BAMWX also noted.

Anyone with a Wxbell or Weathermodels subscription, do they offer long range AI EPS? Tia