2025-2026 ENSO

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

I’m pretty sure the model was forecasting all of that below average snow because it had a country wide blowtorch. So it was right for the wrong reason pretty much. 

Exactly. We averaged normal here. Model had us projected well below snowfall.

[GaWx]

 Here are the Sept Euro forecasts for DJF 2024-5 back to 2017-8 vs actual

2024-5 prog: avg 4F too warm much of US but SW close; grade: F

2024-5 actual

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/usclimdivs/climdiv.pl?variab=Temperature&type=1&base=7&mon1=12&mon2=2&iy[1]=2024&iy[2]=&iy[3]=&iy[4]=&iy[5]=&iy[6]=&iy[7]=&iy[8]=&iy[9]=&iy[10]=&iy[11]=&iy[12]=&iy[13]=&iy[14]=&iy[15]=&iy[16]=&iy[17]=&iy[18]=&iy[19]=&iy[20]=&iy[21]=&iy[22]=&iy[23]=&iy[24]=&iy[25]=&iy[26]=&iy[27]=&iy[28]=&iy[29]=&iy[30]=&irange1=&irange2=&xlow=-10&xhi=10&xint=1&iunits=1&scale=100&iwhite=1&iswitch=0&Submit=Create+Plot
 

2023-4 prog: MW 5-8 too cold, NE 3-4 too cold, SE 1-3 too cold, W close; grade D

 

2023-4 actual

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/usclimdivs/climdiv.pl?variab=Temperature&type=1&base=7&mon1=12&mon2=2&iy[1]=2023&iy[2]=&iy[3]=&iy[4]=&iy[5]=&iy[6]=&iy[7]=&iy[8]=&iy[9]=&iy[10]=&iy[11]=&iy[12]=&iy[13]=&iy[14]=&iy[15]=&iy[16]=&iy[17]=&iy[18]=&iy[19]=&iy[20]=&iy[21]=&iy[22]=&iy[23]=&iy[24]=&iy[25]=&iy[26]=&iy[27]=&iy[28]=&iy[29]=&iy[30]=&irange1=&irange2=&xlow=-10&xhi=10&xint=1&iunits=1&scale=100&iwhite=1&iswitch=0&Submit=Create+Plot

2022-3 prog: W MW 3 too warm; E MW and NE 3 too cold, SE 1-2 too cold, W 6 too warm; grade D

2022-3 actual

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/usclimdivs/climdiv.pl?variab=Temperature&type=1&base=7&mon1=12&mon2=2&iy[1]=2022&iy[2]=&iy[3]=&iy[4]=&iy[5]=&iy[6]=&iy[7]=&iy[8]=&iy[9]=&iy[10]=&iy[11]=&iy[12]=&iy[13]=&iy[14]=&iy[15]=&iy[16]=&iy[17]=&iy[18]=&iy[19]=&iy[20]=&iy[21]=&iy[22]=&iy[23]=&iy[24]=&iy[25]=&iy[26]=&iy[27]=&iy[28]=&iy[29]=&iy[30]=&irange1=&irange2=&xlow=-10&xhi=10&xint=1&iunits=1&scale=100&iwhite=1&iswitch=0&Submit=Create+Plot

2021-2 prog: pretty close except 2 too warm W; grade A

 

2021-2 actual

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/usclimdivs/climdiv.pl?variab=Temperature&type=1&base=7&mon1=12&mon2=2&iy[1]=2021&iy[2]=&iy[3]=&iy[4]=&iy[5]=&iy[6]=&iy[7]=&iy[8]=&iy[9]=&iy[10]=&iy[11]=&iy[12]=&iy[13]=&iy[14]=&iy[15]=&iy[16]=&iy[17]=&iy[18]=&iy[19]=&iy[20]=&iy[21]=&iy[22]=&iy[23]=&iy[24]=&iy[25]=&iy[26]=&iy[27]=&iy[28]=&iy[29]=&iy[30]=&irange1=&irange2=&xlow=-10&xhi=10&xint=1&iunits=1&scale=100&iwhite=1&iswitch=0&Submit=Create+Plot

 

 2020-1 prog: 0-4 too warm MW, 3 too warm NE/SE, SC 4-6 too warm, W 1-2 too warm; Grade D

2020-1 actual

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/usclimdivs/climdiv.pl?variab=Temperature&type=1&base=7&mon1=12&mon2=2&iy[1]=2020&iy[2]=&iy[3]=&iy[4]=&iy[5]=&iy[6]=&iy[7]=&iy[8]=&iy[9]=&iy[10]=&iy[11]=&iy[12]=&iy[13]=&iy[14]=&iy[15]=&iy[16]=&iy[17]=&iy[18]=&iy[19]=&iy[20]=&iy[21]=&iy[22]=&iy[23]=&iy[24]=&iy[25]=&iy[26]=&iy[27]=&iy[28]=&iy[29]=&iy[30]=&irange1=&irange2=&xlow=-10&xhi=10&xint=1&iunits=1&scale=100&iwhite=1&iswitch=0&Submit=Create+Plot

 

2019-20 prog: MW 2 too cold, NE close; SE 2-3 too cold, W 0-2 too cold; grade A

2019-20 actual:

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/usclimdivs/climdiv.pl?variab=Temperature&type=1&base=7&mon1=12&mon2=2&iy[1]=2019&iy[2]=&iy[3]=&iy[4]=&iy[5]=&iy[6]=&iy[7]=&iy[8]=&iy[9]=&iy[10]=&iy[11]=&iy[12]=&iy[13]=&iy[14]=&iy[15]=&iy[16]=&iy[17]=&iy[18]=&iy[19]=&iy[20]=&iy[21]=&iy[22]=&iy[23]=&iy[24]=&iy[25]=&iy[26]=&iy[27]=&iy[28]=&iy[29]=&iy[30]=&irange1=&irange2=&xlow=-10&xhi=10&xint=1&iunits=1&scale=100&iwhite=1&iswitch=0&Submit=Create+Plot

 

2018-9 prog: MW 1 too warm, NE close, SE 2-3 too cold, W 2-3 too warm; grade B

2018-9 actual

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/usclimdivs/climdiv.pl?variab=Temperature&type=1&base=7&mon1=12&mon2=2&iy[1]=2018&iy[2]=&iy[3]=&iy[4]=&iy[5]=&iy[6]=&iy[7]=&iy[8]=&iy[9]=&iy[10]=&iy[11]=&iy[12]=&iy[13]=&iy[14]=&iy[15]=&iy[16]=&iy[17]=&iy[18]=&iy[19]=&iy[20]=&iy[21]=&iy[22]=&iy[23]=&iy[24]=&iy[25]=&iy[26]=&iy[27]=&iy[28]=&iy[29]=&iy[30]=&irange1=&irange2=&xlow=-10&xhi=10&xint=1&iunits=1&scale=100&iwhite=1&iswitch=0&Submit=Create+Plot

 

2017-8 prog: MW 3 too warm, NE 2 too warm, SE/W close; Grade C

 

2017-8 actual

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/usclimdivs/climdiv.pl?variab=Temperature&type=1&base=7&mon1=12&mon2=2&iy[1]=2017&iy[2]=&iy[3]=&iy[4]=&iy[5]=&iy[6]=&iy[7]=&iy[8]=&iy[9]=&iy[10]=&iy[11]=&iy[12]=&iy[13]=&iy[14]=&iy[15]=&iy[16]=&iy[17]=&iy[18]=&iy[19]=&iy[20]=&iy[21]=&iy[22]=&iy[23]=&iy[24]=&iy[25]=&iy[26]=&iy[27]=&iy[28]=&iy[29]=&iy[30]=&irange1=&irange2=&xlow=-10&xhi=10&xint=1&iunits=1&scale=100&iwhite=1&iswitch=0&Submit=Create+Plot

———————

-GPA: 2.0

-Last 3 poor

-Best 2019-20 and 2021-2; worst 2024-5

-2 A, 1 B, 1 C, 3 D, 1 F

-The Sept ‘25 fcast for 2025-6 is for US as a whole the 2nd warmest to 2024-5 since 2017-8

-NE prog misses: +4, -3.5, -3, 0, +3, 0,  0, +2; so, NE prog was too warm thrice, too cold twice, and close thrice; So, NE prog on avg was only 0.3 F too warm vs actual meaning negligible bias vs actual though avg miss was by ~2 F

-MW prog misses: +4, -6.5, 0, 0, +2, -2, +1, +3; so, MW prog was too warm 4 times, too cold twice, and close twice; So, MW prog on avg was only 0.2 F too warm meaning negligible bias vs actual though avg miss was by ~2 F

-SE prog misses: +4, -2, -1.5, 0, +3, -2.5, -2.5, 0; so, SE prog was too warm twice, too cold 4 times, and close twice; So, SE prog on avg was only 0.2 F too cool vs actual meaning negligible bias vs actual though avg miss was by ~2 F

-W prog misses: +2, 0, +6, +2, +1.5, -1, +2.5, 0; so, W prog was too warm 5 times, too cold once, and close twice; So, W prog on avg was 1.6 F too warm! Thus, there appears to be a notable Euro warm bias for the W for winter at least in Sept progs. Avg miss was ~2 F

[raindancewx]

Some context on La Nina ACE through August. We finished at 39 in the Atlantic. 

30-50 La Nina ACE, through Aug 31 since 1930 () and then final ACE after the slash.

1942 (36.1) / 62.5

1956 (32.5) / 56.7

1964 (39.7) / 153

1998 (44.7) / 181.8

2000 (43.7) / 119.1

2007 (38.0) / 73.9

2010 (45.1) / 165.5

2011 (36.7) / 126.3

2016 (31.5) / 141.3 excluding the Jan 2016 system

2017 (30.4) / 224.9

2020 (43.0) / 179.8

2021 (44.4) / 145.7

Blended final total - 135.9. Ten most recent La Ninas average 146 ACE (2007-2024). October is almost always below 70 ACE even in hyper-active seasons, and Nov is almost always under 35 ACE even in hyper-active seasons. So the quiet September days start to add up pretty quick if you're behind with nothing active. If you throw out 2017 (since we're very unlikely to be anywhere near 175 ACE in Sept), you end up with a map consistent with my research showing the low ACE La Nina hurricane seasons have more frequent cold snaps in the Southwest.

2020 had the mid Sept/late Oct/Feb severe cold, Feb-Apr 2022 (and 2023) was very cold locally. Feb 2011 very cold. Jan 2008 is very cold. Nov-Jan 2000-01 is very cold. Dec 2011 very cold locally. 

September should be quite clarifying for which years in the group are the good matches. The Summer temperature pattern was fairly close to some kind of blend of 2007, 2020, 2021