2025-2026 ENSO

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 hours ago, George001 said:

In theory the atmosphere should be even more nina like than last year. La Niña development started taking off around a month ago, and will likely be stronger than it was last year in late fall. Whether it lasts long enough to register as an official La Niña by ONI is uncertain, but it doesn’t really matter. At this point, the logical assumption is to expect weak la Niña conditions this winter.

The big difference is in 1+2. Last year was never going to behave like a la nina with that east-based el nino.

[so_whats_happening]

Nice little storm took place in the north Pacific this past week. Wiped a out some of the warmer waters, but still very much entrenched though. Need quite a few more larger systems to really knock it out. The most noticeable change from last year to this year is the cool pool is not set up in the Bering sea or gulf of Alaska.

[snowman19]

Nice little storm took place in the north Pacific this past week. Wiped a out some of the warmer waters, but still very much entrenched though. Need quite a few more larger systems to really knock it out. The most noticeable change from last year to this year is the cool pool is not set up in the Bering sea or gulf of Alaska.

Last year there was a parade of storms, tropical and extratropical, this year, nothing. Like you said, that’s going to warm right back up quickly

[snowman19]

[so_whats_happening]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Last year there was a parade of storms, tropical and extratropical, this year, nothing. Like you said, that’s going to warm right back up quickly

Never said it was going to warm back up only said the pattern is still well entrenched, but we are continuing to see changes occur (slowly). The storm track was much further north last year than this year.

Here is the first 25 days of August last year and this year. (Can't get to the end of the month because it has not updated)

Here is August and September last year storm track significantly further north and toward the Bering sea with a strong low.

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Never said it was going to warm back up only said the pattern is still well entrenched, but we are continuing to see changes occur (slowly). The storm track was much further north last year than this year.

Here is the first 25 days of August last year and this year. (Can't get to the end of the month because it has not updated)

Here is August and September last year storm track significantly further north and toward the Bering sea with a strong low.

Yes, should have phrased it different, “entrenched”, but definitely a difference from last year. I also noticed the change in storm track, by this time last year, the warm pool/marine heat wave around Japan was getting beat to hell with storm after storm, this year, not so much. It is going to take a lot to get any meaningful change out that way, the +11F SSTs aside, the subsurface is just as anomalous 

[so_whats_happening]

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yes, should have phrased it different, “entrenched”, but definitely a difference from last year. I also noticed the change in storm track, by this time last year, the warm pool/marine heat wave around Japan was getting beat to hell with storm after storm, this year, not so much. It is going to take a lot to get any meaningful change out that way, the +11F SSTs aside, the subsurface is just as anomalous 

Lucky for you I have an anomaly map I saved from last year around this time. Im going to have to delete some images from earlier on this thread and last thread because im running out of space again. 400mb is a killer

[bluewave]

First two consecutive years with a quiet Labor Day weekend following a Cat 5 hurricane.

 

[mitchnick]

Enso anomalies reluctant to make any major moves in latest readings. The -.4 is 3.4.

27AUG2025     20.5-0.3     24.3-0.6     26.3-0.4     28.5-0.2

[bluewave]

Strongest -IOD in 3 years.

[snowman19]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Strongest -IOD in 3 years.

Now that it’s really getting going (-IOD) it’s going to form a positive feedback loop with the developing Niña/SOI and really accelerate the EWBs, trade winds, which the models are projecting going further into September. A weak Niña state by the end of this month appears inevitable at this point.

As to your last post on the Atlantic hurricane season:

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Now that it’s really getting going (-IOD) it’s going to form a positive feedback loop with the developing Niña/SOI and really accelerate the EWBs, trade winds, which the models are projecting going further into September. A weak Niña state by the end of this month appears inevitable at this point.

As to your last post on the Atlantic hurricane season:

 

 

 

 

This is the strongest -IOD since the 22-23 and 16-17 La Ninas.  

My guess for the rest of this season is that the ACE will finish below the 161 level of last year.

But we have to watch for a rebound in hurricane activity from mid to late September right into October which has been common since 2012.

[snowman19]

@DonSutherland1 We are in a “grand solar minimum”. Lmfaooo Last year they were saying we were in a -QBO. The mis-information on twitter is hilarious
 

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@DonSutherland1 We are in a “grand solar minimum”. Lmfaooo Last year they were saying we were in a -QBO. The mis-information on twitter is hilarious
 

The bad information is unbelievable. 

[FPizz]

25 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@DonSutherland1 We are in a “grand solar minimum”. Lmfaooo Last year they were saying we were in a -QBO. The mis-information on twitter is hilarious
 

You picked one random twitter poster with 63 followers?  The original post was correct, Greta is now all about Palestine and we don't see her being a climate nut anymore.  We can all pick out random twitter posts that are ridiculous for any cause we want and waste space in this thread.

[snowman19]

20 minutes ago, FPizz said:

You picked one random twitter poster with 63 followers?  The original post was correct, Greta is now all about Palestine and we don't see her being a climate nut anymore.  We can all pick out random twitter posts that are ridiculous for any cause we want and waste space in this thread.

Ok

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

You picked one random twitter poster with 63 followers?  The original post was correct, Greta is now all about Palestine and we don't see her being a climate nut anymore.  We can all pick out random twitter posts that are ridiculous for any cause we want and waste space in this thread.

That x post was kind of out of nowhere and completely unrelated to the thread. I dont even know how youd find that without searching (that greta haircut though ). Its certainly true that social media is FULL of misinformation, but there is just as much warm biased bad info as there is cold biased bad info. Its like, say your baseball team won 4-3 last night, but someone posts online that they won 17-1. Yes, they won, but completely fabricating the score to make a point is just as wrong as saying they lost.

[anthonymm]

8 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Nice little storm took place in the north Pacific this past week. Wiped a out some of the warmer waters, but still very much entrenched though. Need quite a few more larger systems to really knock it out. The most noticeable change from last year to this year is the cool pool is not set up in the Bering sea or gulf of Alaska.

If we can get the western pac to cool significantly and the eastern pac to continue boiling then that pretty much locks in a great winter in the east right?

[mitchnick]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@DonSutherland1 We are in a “grand solar minimum”. Lmfaooo Last year they were saying we were in a -QBO. The mis-information on twitter is hilarious
 

Well, once the savior of the world gig predictably fails, she can get a job working for Dutch Boy paints.

[Cobalt]

22 hours ago, mitchnick said:

First, I know they try, but since there are so many stations that haven't existed since 1901, they are obviously filling in blanks.

Okay, then let's just take the timeframe since 1960 since it probably has better data. If that's the case then in that 66 year data set, Pennsylvania has had its 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 10th, 13th, and 14th warmest June-Julys since 2005. Only one year in that timeframe has cracked the top 28 coolest June-Julys, 2009 (which is tied as 1st coolest)

22 hours ago, mitchnick said:

As for the recent heat, it means nothing to me. I'm not scared.

Nobody said anything about being scared here  we're in a thread that in part is focused on predicting the upcoming temperatures for the winter months. It's important to remind ourselves that given current trends, warmer than average months are far outpacing colder than average ones. Betting on colder than normal is a losing battle, with recent reprieves like August 2025 becoming increasingly rare.

 

While we're on the topic of winter, in that same 66 year (as you suppose, more accurate) data set with less filled in blanks, the 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, and 11th warmest winters for Pennsylvania have all happened since 2002. So 8 winters cracking the top 12 warmest, while in that time only 3 winters have cracked the top 12 coldest. It's easy to tell why qg_omega and snowman bet on warm winters nearly every year nowadays, by an ever-increasing margin, they are right. The winter chill of many here's youths is becoming increasingly infrequent 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

Okay, then let's just take the timeframe since 1960 since it probably has better data. If that's the case then in that 66 year data set, Pennsylvania has had its 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 10th, 13th, and 14th warmest June-Julys since 2005. Only one year in that timeframe has cracked the top 28 coolest June-Julys, 2009 (which is tied as 1st coolest)

Nobody said anything about being scared here  we're in a thread that in part is focused on predicting the upcoming temperatures for the winter months. It's important to remind ourselves that given current trends, warmer than average months are far outpacing colder than average ones. Betting on colder than normal is a losing battle, with recent reprieves like August 2025 becoming increasingly rare.

 

While we're on the topic of winter, in that same 66 year (as you suppose, more accurate) data set with less filled in blanks, the 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, and 11th warmest winters for Pennsylvania have all happened since 2002. So 8 winters cracking the top 12 warmest, while in that time only 3 winters have cracked the top 12 coldest. It's easy to tell why qg_omega and snowman bet on warm winters nearly every year nowadays, by an ever-increasing margin, they are right. The winter chill of many here's youths is becoming increasingly infrequent 

Honestly, I've posted more about temps in this forum in the past 2 or 3 pages than I have in this or any forum. Lol In the end, there's nothing I  can do about it in the large scale, so I don't care or focus on them. I hope it's cold enough to snow as often as possible over 2-3 months out of the year. If not, oh well. There's always whining to ease the pain.

[BlizzardWx]

12 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Lucky for you I have an anomaly map I saved from last year around this time. Im going to have to delete some images from earlier on this thread and last thread because im running out of space again. 400mb is a killer

Interesting that the ECMWF weeklies seem to want to develop a GOA low for mid September and October. If that did happen I imagine we'd start to erase a lot of those warm anomalies south of Alaska like last year. 

[roardog]

[snowman19]

[SnoSki14]

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The bad information is unbelievable. 

They live in a different reality 

[so_whats_happening]

11 hours ago, anthonymm said:

If we can get the western pac to cool significantly and the eastern pac to continue boiling then that pretty much locks in a great winter in the east right?

Not necessarily but it should help chances. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 9/1/2025 at 1:40 PM, michsnowfreak said:

Ive been saying since April 2014, we will never see another 2013-14 again in our lifetimes, referring to sensible weather. It wasnt just the snowiest winter on record. The combo of snow + cold + snow depth + wind had never been seen in the record era, and not even close.

+NAO's run wetter, so when that phases with the northern stream, as rare as it is, it produces a lot of good snowfall. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It's been pretty constant central-subsurface cold since the 23-24 El Nino. You can see how the surface has been running much warmer than the subsurface (more credence to RONI), which makes me think that when we finally do shift to El Nino, it will be warmer than the subsurface Kelvin Waves would indicate. Pretty good chance we go to El Nino in 2026 or 2027. 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, roardog said:

Looks like canonical Niña. I’m looking for JB to cool this down for his final outlook considering he tends to do that when it isn’t cold along the NE coast. Also, here’s some big hints within this that he will do just that:

August 29, 2025

• The threat of a cold winter looms.
• Plenty of blocking is expected over the Arctic.
• A prominent Alaskan ridge should lead to plenty of cold air.
• Another Thanksgiving to Christmas cold period is on the table, but this time it may not break.
• The heart of the winter looks coldest relative to average, but there are questions as to how it starts and ends.

[snowman19]