2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/22/2025 at 1:19 PM, snowman19 said:

I can see the -EPO, the +PNA not so much, especially since it’s a 2nd year -ENSO/-PDO. Not saying no +PNA but IMO it will be limited 

I think it will be variable...slightly negative in the mean, which is fine.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/25/2025 at 9:42 AM, GaWx said:

ACE is now at 37.14 with just a little more to be added from Fernand. This puts 2024 13th highest of the last 75 (83 percentile). The 1951-2024 avg through today is only 22.
 
 However, Invest 90L headed to the W Caribbean is now considered dead. Overall, the models including Euro Weeklies continue to look quite a bit quieter than climo through the 1st half of Sept. If that verifies, we’d quickly fall back down to at least NN ACE. From that point on, it would still remain to be seen whether or not PhiEaglesfan will be right about Erin being about the only big deal this season. I’ll be more than happy to give him kudos if he were to be right. But there’s still such a long way to go, especially in a cold ENSO season, which are often backended. In addition, recent seasons have been getting more backended, quite possibly related to GW.

I thought that was one of the more silly calls I have seen in a while.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/25/2025 at 11:08 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm so interested to see if we get a cold December this year, because strong -QBO/weak -ENSO analogs strongly support it. I remember those similar 2 conditions in the Fall of 2005, we used the 1989 analog, and it worked out great that Winter. Besides that, there is nothing strongly anomalously warm about the global pattern right now, wrt to previous years. I am going to be in the 70s for highs something like 13/14 August days, which is unusual. We had a warm up in June, but cold H5 was overtop of it, so it was a strong +NAO driven warm up. We aren't just popping ridging out of nowhere, like we did a lot 2020-2024. For all this about 2nd year El Nino's being so warm in the global pattern, you don't hear much about 2nd year La Nina's, and the cooling effect. I think since late November last year it's been a cooler US pattern, relative to global warming and all. Will be interesting to see if it lasts into the Winter. Analogs say that odds are starting to become in that favor, the more we get these cooler patterns through the Fall. 

(Long winded) Mic drop-

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/26/2025 at 8:05 AM, bluewave said:

Maybe you don’t understand the difference between climate normals and rankings. Normals keep getting warmer with each 10 year update. So it takes a smaller warm departure for a top ten warmest month or season using the warmest 1991-2020 climate normals. 

I don't care about the rankings. Most weather circles use departures based on current climo.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/26/2025 at 10:10 AM, Cobalt said:

Are you telling me that this wording

Wasn't meant to push any sort of agenda that this Summer was not as warm as others claim? bluewave brought up that you're comparing against the warmest 30 year average, which is a completely valid criticism. From what I can tell June's "only +1.3" is 13th warmest out of 136 years.

Words like "only" or "barely AN" are only applicable if we isolate the current 30 year average as the baseline for absolute warmth or cold. That is way more narrow of a scope than what bluewave did, comparing to the entire range of years. Comparing against 136 years is a way better benchmark than just 30.

 

 

 

 

I don't see why it matters unless someone is unconvinced of CC. We all understand that the world has warmed....but we measure based on current climo.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/26/2025 at 11:23 AM, Cobalt said:

Is that not exactly you're doing by using just the years within the 1991-2020 average and nothing else? If not changing the standards, it's focusing only on the ones that push your notions. You're dropping 100 of the 136 years of records because they make this year's averages seem warmer by comparison.

Would you look back on June 2025's +1.3 as a "cooler" month just because the 2001-2030 averages might place it as a -0.2, even if it ranks 20th warmest of 136 years? 

It's the established climo protocol. I don't think using that represents a tacit denial of CC. Do me a favor and voice concerns over in the CC thread.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I though that was one of the more silly calls I have seen in a while.

You never know, though. 2007 was a strong la nina, and had Felix at around this time (the second big storm, after Dean). You'd almost be certain that another major hurricane was going to happen the rest of the way. But it didn't happen.

1992 was a one-storm wonder. 2007 was a two-storm wonder. I think we're headed for this type of year, rather than a 2005 or 2020. Not every hurricane season is going to be active. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

You never know, though. 2007 was a strong la nina, and had Felix at around this time (the second big storm, after Dean). You'd almost be certain that another major hurricane was going to happen the rest of the way. But it didn't happen.

1992 was a one-storm wonder. 2007 was a two-storm wonder. I think we're headed for this type of year, rather than a 2005 or 2020. Not every hurricane season is going to be active. 

Yup...just my opinion. We'll see, but Like Chris said, late seasons have been active and protracted.

PS: Not every hurricane season is going to be active, nor is every active season going to be 2005 or 2020.

[snowman19]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yup...just my opinion. We'll see, but Like Chris said, late seasons have been active and protracted.

PS: Not every hurricane season is going to be active, nor is every active season going to be 2005 or 2020.

There’s people on twitter who think that just because it’s a La Niña it HAS to be above normal in ACE and named storms. As we all know on here, that’s just not the case, just like it doesn’t HAVE to be below normal when there’s an El Niño 

[raindancewx]

One thing I look at entering the Fall is the overall level of heat south of the United States. When you get warm ups ahead of storms in the Fall/Winter from much deeper heat sources it can really kill the cold shots in terms of the averaging out of the monthly/seasonal temps.

From 1961-2024, the tendency for the top Atlantic hurricane seasons is for the West Coast to be pretty warm Jun-Aug. We haven't had that this year. There have been pretty cold periods on the West Coast this summer. We don't appear to be heading to a top ten type season based on the composite.

2005 has a passing similarity but had different placements for the subtropical features. But really 1995/1999 are the only two of the ten super seasons that have any kind of cold Summer pattern at all for the West Coast.

The precipitation pattern is fairly similar but much wetter in the Plains and a bit drier in the East. But a lot of these active hurricane seasons have storms hitting the east/gulf to drive up their totals in Jun-Aug, which we haven't had this year.

The precip pattern difference looks like 2025 is the active hurricane seasons, but on a spoke centered on FL, with the core of the moisture rotated counterclockwise toward the Plans. To me that implies completely different positioning of the Bermuda High from the hyper active seasons. But we'll see.

[GaWx]

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

There’s people on twitter who think that just because it’s a La Niña it HAS to be above normal in ACE and named storms. As we all know on here, that’s just not the case, just like it doesn’t HAVE to be below normal when there’s an El Niño 

-Indeed, only 11 of 15 La Niña seasons (I’m including 2024) since 1995 had well AN active era ACE though that’s still near 3/4 of them.

-For neutral: only 1/3 had well AN active ACE

-For El Niño: only 2/9 had well AN ACE

-So, La Niña has been associated with the highest odds by far of a high ACE season

[so_whats_happening]

 

 

Did a very quick rather busy chart on excel. Basically it is the JJA ENSO data from CPC in blue and Ace numbers for the season in orange. Now this doesn't help explain where we came from like previous winter may have been Strong Nino and we crashed to weak nina by summer as an example which could play a role. This is for every year from 1950 to 2024.

Edit: Had to fix it so you could see every year. Shame it does not have dots for Ace to see the years better.

[BlizzardWx]

I know several consider last winter to be a top analog, but there really has been a lot of change in the SSTA pattern in just about every basin. The observed pattern also feels very different. We had a high of just 70 F today in Tulsa for the 5th coldest on record, which is on top of a cool and extremely wet summer...very different from last year at least at this juncture. 

[so_whats_happening]

Also wanted to post the latest for July and August via TAO on the subsurface look between 2N and 2S.

 

[snowman19]

6 hours ago, BlizzardWx said:

I know several consider last winter to be a top analog, but there really has been a lot of change in the SSTA pattern in just about every basin. The observed pattern also feels very different. We had a high of just 70 F today in Tulsa for the 5th coldest on record, which is on top of a cool and extremely wet summer...very different from last year at least at this juncture. 

I agree. The Niña is tipping its hand much earlier this year than last, there’s a -IOD event now and the NW Pacific is even warmer. There’s also a very pronounced -PMM and we have a deep -AAM, whereas last year was very +AAM/Nino like. Last year by this time we had a parade of recurving tropical and extratropical storms training over the inferno SSTS off Japan cooling/upwelling them, not happening this time around. In fact the -PDO is even stronger now with SSTS of 11 degrees F above normal in that area….that’s staggering. And obvious big changes in the Atlantic with the big persistent cold pool south of Greenland and up Davis Straight

EDIT: We’ve also had a QBO flip from + to -
 
 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

If we're going to dip into la nina in 2025-26, then 1949-50 is probably the best analog you're going to do here. I know that was 75+ years ago, but there aren't many years that go from ENSO neutral to a la nina. Plus, you had a strong -PDO and elevated solar (although it was declining by that point).

2020-21 would be the next best match, but that was coming off a borderline weak el nino, and we were still near a solar min. And while we had a -PDO, it wasn't as strong as 1949-50 and now.

[mitchnick]

5 hours ago, BlizzardWx said:

I know several consider last winter to be a top analog, but there really has been a lot of change in the SSTA pattern in just about every basin. The observed pattern also feels very different. We had a high of just 70 F today in Tulsa for the 5th coldest on record, which is on top of a cool and extremely wet summer...very different from last year at least at this juncture. 

The Atlantic looks less likely to support a strong ridge unless things change. 

[bluewave]

18 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't care about the rankings. Most weather circles use departures based on current climo.

Departures keep changing every 10 years so they are a subjective measure in a warming climate. Rankings are fixed based on the actual comparisons to past events making them an objective measure.

In the old days the departures and rankings were directly related when the temperatures didn’t vary much with each new 10 year update prior to the 1980s. This is the reason that records are based on the actual rankings and not departures.

A daily record high or low at a place like Boston is the actual temperature according to the rank. Since a record low for example will always be the number one ranked coldest temperature on a specific date. The record is not based on the numerical departure.  So it will always be an objective measure.

Now if you are doing simple seasonal outlooks then you will rely on departures for above and below areas on the maps. But this is only one metric for doing these seasonal outlooks. It’s a good starting point as to what you think the forecast will look like. 

Let’s say you were doing a summer outlook for a client in BTV. It would be a good summer outlook if you showed above normal temperatures. But if you wanted to stand out from the rest of the pack, then  you would attempt to let the client know what the sensible weather would be.

Since the 1991-2020 climate normals are the warmest on record, BTV is only currently at +1.8. This would lead the average person who is not familiar with the changing departures to think that the summer would just feel a little warmer than average.

But this is a subjective measure based on the recent climate. BTV is currently ranked 3 warmest summer on record. 5 days reaching 95 was the 4 th highest ever for a summer. The summer had 17 days reaching 90 and was the 4th highest. The 99° in June was 2nd highest for the month.

 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If we're going to dip into la nina in 2025-26, then 1949-50 is probably the best analog you're going to do here. I know that was 75+ years ago, but there aren't many years that go from ENSO neutral to a la nina. Plus, you had a strong -PDO and elevated solar (although it was declining by that point).

2020-21 would be the next best match, but that was coming off a borderline weak el nino, and we were still near a solar min. And while we had a -PDO, it wasn't as strong as 1949-50 and now.

Not sure if QBO data goes back that far but I wonder if that’s a match too or not

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Not sure if QBO data goes back that far but I wonder if that’s a match too or not

It was negative but it was negative 1948-55. So, it was very different back then as opposed to back and forth every two years.

[GaWx]

 Though yesterday’s full daily average sunspot # didn’t come close to the 290 record high for the current cycle, it still was a very impressive 207 and today’s early avg is at 209:
 

2025 08 22 2025.640  57   8.7  25  27
2025 08 23 2025.642  75   7.0  23  28
2025 08 24 2025.645 110   8.2  31  38
2025 08 25 2025.648 139  15.2  35  42
2025 08 26 2025.651 191  21.2  30  34
2025 08 27 2025.653 207  17.2  20  28
2025 08 28 2025.656 209  15.8  10  12

@snowman19

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Departures keep changing every 10 years so they are a subjective measure in a warming climate. Rankings are fixed based on the actual comparisons to past events making them an objective measure.

In the old days the departures and rankings were directly related when the temperatures didn’t vary much with each new 10 year update prior to the 1980s. This is the reason that records are based on the actual rankings and not departures.

A daily record high or low at a place like Boston is the actual temperature according to the rank. Since a record low for example will always be the number one ranked coldest temperature on a specific date. The record is not based on the numerical departure.  So it will always be an objective measure.

Now if you are doing simple seasonal outlooks then you will rely on departures for above and below areas on the maps. But this is only one metric for doing these seasonal outlooks. It’s a good starting point as to what you think the forecast will look like. 

Let’s say you were doing a summer outlook for a client in BTV. It would be a good summer outlook if you showed above normal temperatures. But if you wanted to stand out from the rest of the pack, then  you would attempt to let the client know what the sensible weather would be.

Since the 1991-2020 climate normals are the warmest on record, BTV is only currently at +1.8. This would lead the average person who is not familiar with the changing departures to think that the summer would just feel a little warmer than average.

But this is a subjective measure based on the recent climate. BTV is currently ranked 3 warmest summer on record. 5 days reaching 95 was the 4 th highest ever for a summer. The summer had 17 days reaching 90 and was the 4th highest. The 99° in June was 2nd highest for the month.

 

I agree with this...I'm not arguing that there isn't utility in seasonal rankings....however, if you aren't forecasting for a client that requests that, and understand the context of current climo within a warming climate than it isn't necessary. I do incorporate use of the 1951-2010 climo period for temps in an effort to "normalize" some of that disparity owed to CC when using analogs...otherwise, most older analogs will appear frigid by today's standards.

[TheClimateChanger]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Departures keep changing every 10 years so they are a subjective measure in a warming climate. Rankings are fixed based on the actual comparisons to past events making them an objective measure.

In the old days the departures and rankings were directly related when the temperatures didn’t vary much with each new 10 year update prior to the 1980s. This is the reason that records are based on the actual rankings and not departures.

A daily record high or low at a place like Boston is the actual temperature according to the rank. Since a record low for example will always be the number one ranked coldest temperature on a specific date. The record is not based on the numerical departure.  So it will always be an objective measure.

Now if you are doing simple seasonal outlooks then you will rely on departures for above and below areas on the maps. But this is only one metric for doing these seasonal outlooks. It’s a good starting point as to what you think the forecast will look like. 

Let’s say you were doing a summer outlook for a client in BTV. It would be a good summer outlook if you showed above normal temperatures. But if you wanted to stand out from the rest of the pack, then  you would attempt to let the client know what the sensible weather would be.

Since the 1991-2020 climate normals are the warmest on record, BTV is only currently at +1.8. This would lead the average person who is not familiar with the changing departures to think that the summer would just feel a little warmer than average.

But this is a subjective measure based on the recent climate. BTV is currently ranked 3 warmest summer on record. 5 days reaching 95 was the 4 th highest ever for a summer. The summer had 17 days reaching 90 and was the 4th highest. The 99° in June was 2nd highest for the month.

 

This has just been a brutal stretch though.

Here is where we were for summer to date through the 15th of the month:

And here is where we are now projected to finish:

[TheClimateChanger]

25 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

This has just been a brutal stretch though.

Here is where we were for summer to date through the 15th of the month:

And here is where we are now projected to finish:

On the plus side, it will be the hottest summer on record in the UK. The UK Met Office needs to brace for some unhinged comments from social media users. For some of these guys, 1976 will always be king no matter how hot recent summers are.

You can already see some of the trolls from across the pond recycling the same nonsense as the trolls here about airport tarmacs and jet engine blasts:

I suspect the CONUS will slot in around 12th place overall, and warmer than any pre-21st century summers except 1934 & 1936, but I guess that's a big victory for the trolls these days. I've already been called out by the usual suspects for not providing a list of record lows. In reality, I'm just trying to take a break from the trolls!

[michsnowfreak]

On 8/25/2025 at 11:08 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm so interested to see if we get a cold December this year, because strong -QBO/weak -ENSO analogs strongly support it. I remember those similar 2 conditions in the Fall of 2005, we used the 1989 analog, and it worked out great that Winter. Besides that, there is nothing strongly anomalously warm about the global pattern right now, wrt to previous years. I am going to be in the 70s for highs something like 13/14 August days, which is unusual. We had a warm up in June, but cold H5 was overtop of it, so it was a strong +NAO driven warm up. We aren't just popping ridging out of nowhere, like we did a lot 2020-2024. For all this about 2nd year El Nino's being so warm in the global pattern, you don't hear much about 2nd year La Nina's, and the cooling effect. I think since late November last year it's been a cooler US pattern, relative to global warming and all. Will be interesting to see if it lasts into the Winter. Analogs say that odds are starting to become in that favor, the more we get these cooler patterns through the Fall. 

I literally say the same thing every time we are in a La Nina or La Nina type state. Historically December has been the prize month of winter in a La Nina, but in recent years we have had so much trouble getting a colder than normal December (yet we have had no trouble getting a cold Nov, Jan, or Feb). Even last year, a colder than normal winter, but by far the mildest month was December. Im very interested to see if we get some real fun in December this year. Of course, it could cost us some fun in Feb, but we are definitely due.

[michsnowfreak]

9 hours ago, BlizzardWx said:

I know several consider last winter to be a top analog, but there really has been a lot of change in the SSTA pattern in just about every basin. The observed pattern also feels very different. We had a high of just 70 F today in Tulsa for the 5th coldest on record, which is on top of a cool and extremely wet summer...very different from last year at least at this juncture. 

We had a warm, humid summer here, and while once again, extreme temps were not a thing (14 days of 90F+, which is only 1 day more than normal, and only 4 of these days were 93+) it was the warm humid nights that made their mark. 

Yet now, we are in a stretch of a what will be about 10 days straight of unseasonably cool nights, several of them flirting in record low territory, so to say that summers back is broken is an understatement. The trees are starting to get some color as well. 

[brooklynwx99]

10 hours ago, BlizzardWx said:

I know several consider last winter to be a top analog, but there really has been a lot of change in the SSTA pattern in just about every basin. The observed pattern also feels very different. We had a high of just 70 F today in Tulsa for the 5th coldest on record, which is on top of a cool and extremely wet summer...very different from last year at least at this juncture. 

looking at the 500mb patterns over the last two summers, last year is a good match... had the same +NAO/+AO as well as the dual ridges over the western and eastern US. last year is also a good PDO, solar, and overall ENSO match as well. I think it holds a good bit of weight

 

[snowman19]

14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

looking at the 500mb patterns over the last two summers, last year is a good match... had the same +NAO/+AO as well as the dual ridges over the western and eastern US. last year is also a good PDO, solar, and overall ENSO match as well. I think it holds a good bit of weight

 

I’m not disagreeing with the 500mb +AO/+NAO, however, there are many big differences I see, namely last year’s Nina didn’t get going this early, it was a late-bloomer event, we didn’t have a strong -IOD and the AAM was the complete opposite. We had the very strong Nino like +AAM right into November, this year, deep -AAM. The PMM is and has been very negative this year, was not negative at this time last year. The North Atlantic didn’t have the south of Greenland to Davis Straight cold pool last year. Also, the marine heatwave around Japan in the NW PAC was getting bombarded with recurving tropical cyclones and extratropical storms coming off the coast, which was upwelling and cooling the SSTS in that area, not the case this year, in fact SSTS are 11 degrees F above normal in that area currently. Further, the QBO has flipped 

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m not disagreeing with the 500mb +AO/+NAO, however, there are many big differences I see, namely last year’s Nina didn’t get going this early, it was a late-bloomer event, we didn’t have a strong -IOD and the AAM was the complete opposite. We had the very strong Nino like +AAM right into November, this year, deep -AAM. The PMM is and has been very negative this year, was not negative at this time last year. The North Atlantic didn’t have the south of Greenland to Davis Straight cold pool last year. Also, the marine heatwave around Japan in the NW PAC was getting bombarded with recurving tropical cyclones and extratropical storms coming off the coast, which was upwelling and cooling the SSTS in that area, not the case this year, in fact SSTS are 11 degrees F above normal in that area currently. Further, the QBO has flipped 

QBO is not unfavorable this year and La Niña is still going to be weak. This seems like splitting hairs to me...and believe me, I want a repeat of last winter like a hole in the head.

[brooklynwx99]

45 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m not disagreeing with the 500mb +AO/+NAO, however, there are many big differences I see, namely last year’s Nina didn’t get going this early, it was a late-bloomer event, we didn’t have a strong -IOD and the AAM was the complete opposite. We had the very strong Nino like +AAM right into November, this year, deep -AAM. The PMM is and has been very negative this year, was not negative at this time last year. The North Atlantic didn’t have the south of Greenland to Davis Straight cold pool last year. Also, the marine heatwave around Japan in the NW PAC was getting bombarded with recurving tropical cyclones and extratropical storms coming off the coast, which was upwelling and cooling the SSTS in that area, not the case this year, in fact SSTS are 11 degrees F above normal in that area currently. Further, the QBO has flipped 

looking at RONI, the MJJ this year is -0.4 and last year it was -0.45. i also don't take the N ATL SSTs into account all that much, I find correlations with our weather pretty weak. even though the heatwave near Japan is stronger, the SSTs off the WC are also higher, so the PDO is about the same. if anything, it was more consistently under -3 last year

overall, I think there are a lot of big picture similarities. I don't like to get too granular with LR forecasting