2025 Severe Weather General Discussion

[high risk]

2 hours ago, frd said:

What are your thoughts about Monday afternoon, regarding storms pushing East and through I-95 ?

Accu-weather is talking about Monday as robust storm chances, geater than 50 % then and then the the focus shifts to Tuesday for the severe parameters and likely higher end potential.     

        I'm not sure how much coverage there will be on Monday, but shear will be slightly improved (relative to today and tomorrow), and CAPE should be plentiful.    It's probably a MRGL day with some potential for a late upgrade to a SLGT.   A bigger threat might be localized flash flooding, with huge PW values and still relatively slow storm motion.

[Eskimo Joe]

29 minutes ago, high risk said:

 

If that 9pm cell missed you, it couldn't have been by much.   Storms just blew up a bit east of me - getting occasional thunder here.

My wife decided to ignore my meteorological advice and put our Clydesdale horse out for the night at the barn in Finksburg. We spent close to 2 hours cleaning him up for a competition tomorrow. I hope it doesn't rain. I don't want to rush a wash tomorrow.

[aldie 22]

10 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

My wife decided to ignore my meteorological advice and put our Clydesdale horse out for the night at the barn in Finksburg. We spent close to 2 hours cleaning him up for a competition tomorrow. I hope it doesn't rain. I don't want to rush a wash tomorrow.

Full Moon?

[frd]

12 hours ago, high risk said:

        I'm not sure how much coverage there will be on Monday, but shear will be slightly improved (relative to today and tomorrow), and CAPE should be plentiful.    It's probably a MRGL day with some potential for a late upgrade to a SLGT.   A bigger threat might be localized flash flooding, with huge PW values and still relatively slow storm motion.

Mount Holly has increased the probabilities of rain from 50 % to likely at 70% here on Monday.  

The event on Monday plus Tuesday's storms has produced the days 1 to 3 rainfall, which has increased from the WPC. 

We should hopefully score some rain, with possible severe on Tuesday, as you mentioned, then several summer days around 86 to 88.   

 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, aldie 22 said:

Full Moon?

Yes! I'm the EMS guy today. Bonus is that my horses didn't roll!!

[high risk]

5 hours ago, frd said:

Mount Holly has increased the probabilities of rain from 50 % to likely at 70% here on Monday.  

The event on Monday plus Tuesday's storms has produced the days 1 to 3 rainfall, which has increased from the WPC. 

We should hopefully score some rain, with possible severe on Tuesday, as you mentioned, then several summer days around 86 to 88.   

 

I’m not seeing much of a signal in the CAMs to support a higher PoP tomorrow out your way, but I hope it works out for you. 

[dailylurker]

29 minutes ago, high risk said:

I’m not seeing much of a signal in the CAMs to support a higher PoP tomorrow out your way, but I hope it works out for you. 

I'm going to start calling you Low Risk lol

[frd]

42 minutes ago, high risk said:

I’m not seeing much of a signal in the CAMs to support a higher PoP tomorrow out your way, but I hope it works out for you. 

Meanwhile tracking a cell that is moving East to West towards my location currently, will be a nail bitter. 

[frd]

No rain here, but we have severe storm moving South at 5 mph near Dunalk, MD . 

 

 

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Baltimore City in northern Maryland...
  Northeastern Anne Arundel County in central Maryland...
  Southeastern Baltimore County in northern Maryland...

* Until 600 PM EDT.

* At 531 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Dundalk, or
  over Sparrows Point, moving south at 5 mph.