high risk Posted yesterday at 02:10 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:10 AM 2 hours ago, frd said: What are your thoughts about Monday afternoon, regarding storms pushing East and through I-95 ? Accu-weather is talking about Monday as robust storm chances, geater than 50 % then and then the the focus shifts to Tuesday for the severe parameters and likely higher end potential. I'm not sure how much coverage there will be on Monday, but shear will be slightly improved (relative to today and tomorrow), and CAPE should be plentiful. It's probably a MRGL day with some potential for a late upgrade to a SLGT. A bigger threat might be localized flash flooding, with huge PW values and still relatively slow storm motion. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted yesterday at 02:36 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:36 AM 29 minutes ago, high risk said: If that 9pm cell missed you, it couldn't have been by much. Storms just blew up a bit east of me - getting occasional thunder here. My wife decided to ignore my meteorological advice and put our Clydesdale horse out for the night at the barn in Finksburg. We spent close to 2 hours cleaning him up for a competition tomorrow. I hope it doesn't rain. I don't want to rush a wash tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted yesterday at 01:23 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:23 PM 10 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: My wife decided to ignore my meteorological advice and put our Clydesdale horse out for the night at the barn in Finksburg. We spent close to 2 hours cleaning him up for a competition tomorrow. I hope it doesn't rain. I don't want to rush a wash tomorrow. Full Moon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted yesterday at 02:12 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:12 PM 12 hours ago, high risk said: I'm not sure how much coverage there will be on Monday, but shear will be slightly improved (relative to today and tomorrow), and CAPE should be plentiful. It's probably a MRGL day with some potential for a late upgrade to a SLGT. A bigger threat might be localized flash flooding, with huge PW values and still relatively slow storm motion. Mount Holly has increased the probabilities of rain from 50 % to likely at 70% here on Monday. The event on Monday plus Tuesday's storms has produced the days 1 to 3 rainfall, which has increased from the WPC. We should hopefully score some rain, with possible severe on Tuesday, as you mentioned, then several summer days around 86 to 88. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 1 hour ago, aldie 22 said: Full Moon? Yes! I'm the EMS guy today. Bonus is that my horses didn't roll!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 5 hours ago, frd said: Mount Holly has increased the probabilities of rain from 50 % to likely at 70% here on Monday. The event on Monday plus Tuesday's storms has produced the days 1 to 3 rainfall, which has increased from the WPC. We should hopefully score some rain, with possible severe on Tuesday, as you mentioned, then several summer days around 86 to 88. I’m not seeing much of a signal in the CAMs to support a higher PoP tomorrow out your way, but I hope it works out for you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 29 minutes ago, high risk said: I’m not seeing much of a signal in the CAMs to support a higher PoP tomorrow out your way, but I hope it works out for you. I'm going to start calling you Low Risk lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 42 minutes ago, high risk said: I’m not seeing much of a signal in the CAMs to support a higher PoP tomorrow out your way, but I hope it works out for you. Meanwhile tracking a cell that is moving East to West towards my location currently, will be a nail bitter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago No rain here, but we have severe storm moving South at 5 mph near Dunalk, MD . * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Baltimore City in northern Maryland... Northeastern Anne Arundel County in central Maryland... Southeastern Baltimore County in northern Maryland... * Until 600 PM EDT. * At 531 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Dundalk, or over Sparrows Point, moving south at 5 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Lotta purple showing up on 3k for Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scope1 Posted 58 minutes ago Share Posted 58 minutes ago Slight risked for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 36 minutes ago Share Posted 36 minutes ago Slight risk for excessive rainfall too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 24 minutes ago Share Posted 24 minutes ago 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: Slight risk for excessive rainfall too. Mount Holly with PWAT values up to 2-2.5 inches for Tuesday, plus, frontogenetic forcing as well, mentioned below could enhance rainfall. One other key impact point for Tuesday is a flash flooding threat. All of the area is in a Marginal (1/4) with Delmarva and portions of southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania in a Slight (2/4) risk in the Excessive Rainfall Outlook with the concern for localized flash flooding. PWAT values will rise to 2-2.5 inches with warm cloud depth of 10-12 kft, so the signal is there for the convection to be sufficient rainfall producers. The good news is that the convection will be moving but any training of showers or thunderstorms could lead to increased concern for localized flash flooding. There is also a signal for some frontogenetic forcing with the cold front which could also enhance the precipitation rates with the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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