Eskimo Joe Posted Saturday at 11:56 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:56 PM 11 minutes ago, high risk said: I was more booming my call for a MRGL than excited about severe potential, but I thought we’d do ok with rain this evening. It looks like a miss now, and you’re correct that we will quickly return to drought if this persists. Looks like the heat builds in at the end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted Sunday at 01:02 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 01:02 AM 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Looks like the heat builds in at the end of the week. Thursday seems as though it may carry potential - but it's ages away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted Sunday at 02:20 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:20 AM Tornado Warning in Spotsylvania. Velocity scans are decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted Sunday at 02:25 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:25 AM The triple threat warning(s). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Sunday at 02:28 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:28 AM Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1007 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 VAC137-177-150245- /O.CON.KLWX.TO.W.0026.000000T0000Z-250615T0245Z/ Orange VA-Spotsylvania VA- 1007 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM EDT FOR EASTERN ORANGE AND NORTH CENTRAL SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTIES... At 1007 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 12 miles northwest of Spotsylvania, or 14 miles west of Fredericksburg, moving southeast at 10 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Lake Of The Woods, Chancellorsville, Cookstown, Parker, and Flat Run. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Sunday at 11:00 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:00 AM Day 5 outlooked from SPC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Sunday at 11:53 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:53 AM 52 minutes ago, yoda said: Day 5 outlooked from SPC Only thing worse than a Day 2 Moderate is a D5 15% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Sunday at 12:04 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:04 PM 1 hour ago, yoda said: Day 5 outlooked from SPC Forcing does appear to be quite strong with the deepening trough, so at this point it does seem plausible for there to be at the very least some strong thunderstorms around Thursday afternoon and evening. This is supported quite well by the machine learning guidance by UCAR/NCAR which has a targeted area of severe weather potential over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Will continue to monitor for trends in the guidance but regardless, the general idea that a front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area is consistent with the guidance. Improving weather should return by Friday and into next weekend as high pressure returns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted Sunday at 01:05 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:05 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted Sunday at 01:21 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:21 PM 00z Euro has 3000+ CAPE Thursday mid-afternoon and then storms roll though. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Sunday at 02:18 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:18 PM 55 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 00z Euro has 3000+ CAPE Thursday mid-afternoon and then storms roll though. What would the storm mode be? Could we even possibly see a derecho? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Sunday at 03:04 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:04 PM 45 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: What would the storm mode be? Could we even possibly see a derecho? Our best derechos come with a stout EML, high pressure centered from Kentucky SE to Bermuda, and antecedent surface temps at or above 95°. We appear to have none of those in place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Sunday at 03:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:32 PM 27 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Our best derechos come with a stout EML, high pressure centered from Kentucky SE to Bermuda, and antecedent surface temps at or above 95°. We appear to have none of those in place. So would the storm mode mainly be pop-up microbursty stuff or a squall line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Sunday at 03:42 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:42 PM 10 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: So would the storm mode mainly be pop-up microbursty stuff or a squall line? Right now I would favor the "classic" microbursty line of storms. This is not a knock at SPC by any means, but I do not trust any severe weather forecast beyond D3 in the Mid Atlantic or Northeast. We simply have too many mesoscale features that can muck up a forecast. My favorite research papers for this part of the country are below, and all reference the issues that numerical weather prediction has in this part of the world. Highly worth the read: Guastini, Corey T. and Bosart, Lance F., 2016, "Analysis of a Progressive Derecho Climatology and Associated Formation Environments" Monthly Weather Review Vol. 144, No. 4, pp 1363, 1520-0493, https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/144/4/mwr-d-15-0256.1.xml Vaughan, Matthew T., Tang, Brian H., and Bosart, Lance F., 2017, "Climatology and Analysis of High-Impact, Low Predictive Skill Severe Weather Events in the Northeast United States" Weather and Forecasting Vol. 32, No. 5, pp 1903, 1520-0434, doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-17-0044.1 Banacos, P. C., and M. L. Ekster, 2010: The Association of the Elevated Mixed Layer with Significant Severe Weather Events in the Northeastern United States. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 1082–1102, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010WAF2222363.1. Lombardo, K. A., and B. A. Colle, 2011: Convective Storm Structures and Ambient Conditions Associated with Severe Weather over the Northeast United States. Wea. Forecasting, 26, 940–956, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-11-00002.1. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted Monday at 03:06 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:06 AM 11 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said: So would the storm mode mainly be pop-up microbursty stuff or a squall line? We haven't done squall lines well at all in the Mid-Atlantic in recent years, but this setup certainly favors very organized intense convection. Pop-up stuff occurs with weak forcing, and the cold front arriving during peak heating (and it should plenty hot with high dew points) with a modestly strong upper level trough will provide strong forcing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Monday at 12:08 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:08 PM It will be at the very end of its range, but I'm curious to see what the 12z NAM comes up with Thursday afternoon into the evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted yesterday at 03:15 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:15 AM WTF is this? (It's just the FV3 doing its "huge storm" thing, but good lord.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted yesterday at 03:17 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:17 AM The Day 3 risk for Wednesday is a MRGL for the Eastern Shore and northeast MD, but evening guidance suggests that they will have to move it back tomorrow (as the new Day 2 outlook) to the west to include the DC/Baltimore area. Could even argue for a SLGT, but I'll wait until the 13Z outlook on Wednesday for that to be added. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted yesterday at 03:49 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:49 AM We need a classic night-time lightning barrage. Did yall see that tornado in Somerset Nebraska today! Holy photogenic batman! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted yesterday at 11:00 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:00 AM 7 hours ago, high risk said: The Day 3 risk for Wednesday is a MRGL for the Eastern Shore and northeast MD, but evening guidance suggests that they will have to move it back tomorrow (as the new Day 2 outlook) to the west to include the DC/Baltimore area. Could even argue for a SLGT, but I'll wait until the 13Z outlook on Wednesday for that to be added. MRGL/MRGL/SLGT the next 3 days. BTW, what do you consider us as? Northern MA or southern MA? Reading the Day 3 morning disco, they were kind of splitting up the areas for best chance of all hazards severe on Thursday. They said Northern Mid-Atlantic had the better chance for all hazards while southern was more a damaging winds threat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted yesterday at 01:02 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:02 PM 2% tor added on 1300z SPC OTLK for today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted yesterday at 02:01 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:01 PM If we get sun, then today has all the makings of a sneaky tornado threat along the I-81 to US 15 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted yesterday at 03:08 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:08 PM This looks fun for Thursday.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1344.html Mesoscale Discussion 1344 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Areas affected...parts of the Mid-Atlantic States Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 181536Z - 181730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds should increase this afternoon as isolated to scattered thunderstorms form off parts of the Blue Ridge towards coastal New Jersey and Delaware. Area is being monitored for a possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch with uncertainty on overall coverage/intensity for severe gusts. An upgrade to Slight Risk is likely with the 1630Z Day 1 Outlook. DISCUSSION...Initial low-topped convection has been slowly bubbling across far northern VA and the eastern WV Panhandle. Airmass immediately downstream appears uncapped per mesoanalysis and modified 12Z soundings, where surface temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 80s. 12Z guidance is consistent in suggesting isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing within a region of enhanced 700-500 mb west-southwesterlies. This should provide sufficient speed shear for a few transient cells with mid-level rotation. With poor mid-level lapse rates, hail magnitudes should remain small. But if stratus across the northern Chesapeake/Delaware Bays vicinity can break up this afternoon, a greater than isolated damaging wind threat may be realized. ..Grams/Hart.. 06/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39067797 39677750 40097619 40037514 39707417 39247463 38967537 38627599 38577660 38597727 38767779 39067797 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Borrowed from @WxWatcher007 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: For the weenies among us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Severe Thunderstorm Watch out until 7pm from roughly US-15 east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 4 minutes ago, George BM said: Severe Thunderstorm Watch out until 7pm from roughly US-15 east. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 433 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Eastern Maryland Southern New Jersey Southeast Pennsylvania Northern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will spread eastward across the watch area through the afternoon. The strongest cells will be capable of localized damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of Philadelphia PA to 55 miles southeast of Washington DC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted 6 hours ago Author Share Posted 6 hours ago 1 hour ago, yoda said: Borrowed from @WxWatcher007 If we ever get a 60% wind for us I will promptly perish. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 10 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: If we ever get a 60% wind for us I will promptly perish. I’d come down to chase! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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