2025 Severe Weather General Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

11 minutes ago, high risk said:

I was more booming my call for a MRGL than excited about severe potential, but I thought we’d do ok with rain this evening.  It looks like a miss now, and you’re correct that we will quickly return to drought if this persists. 

Looks like the heat builds in at the end of the week. 

[Kmlwx]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like the heat builds in at the end of the week. 

Thursday seems as though it may carry potential - but it's ages away. 

[wawarriors4]

Tornado Warning in Spotsylvania. Velocity scans are decent

[StormyClearweather]

The triple threat warning(s). 

[yoda]

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1007 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

VAC137-177-150245-
/O.CON.KLWX.TO.W.0026.000000T0000Z-250615T0245Z/
Orange VA-Spotsylvania VA-
1007 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM EDT FOR EASTERN
ORANGE AND NORTH CENTRAL SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTIES...

At 1007 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 12 miles northwest of Spotsylvania, or 14 miles west of
Fredericksburg, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying
         debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter.
         Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile
         homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Of The Woods, Chancellorsville, Cookstown, Parker, and Flat Run.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

[yoda]

Day 5 outlooked from SPC 

[Eskimo Joe]

52 minutes ago, yoda said:

Day 5 outlooked from SPC 

Only thing worse than a Day 2 Moderate is a D5 15%

[frd]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

Day 5 outlooked from SPC 

 Forcing does appear to be
quite strong with the deepening trough, so at this point it does
seem plausible for there to be at the very least some strong
thunderstorms around Thursday afternoon and evening. This is
supported quite well by the machine learning guidance by
UCAR/NCAR which has a targeted area of severe weather potential
over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Will continue to monitor
for trends in the guidance but regardless, the general idea that
a front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area is
consistent with the guidance. Improving weather should return by
Friday and into next weekend as high pressure returns.

[midatlanticweather]

[MN Transplant]

00z Euro has 3000+ CAPE Thursday mid-afternoon and then storms roll though.

[SnowenOutThere]

55 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

00z Euro has 3000+ CAPE Thursday mid-afternoon and then storms roll though.

What would the storm mode be? Could we even possibly see a derecho?

[Eskimo Joe]

45 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

What would the storm mode be? Could we even possibly see a derecho?

Our best derechos come with a stout EML, high pressure centered from Kentucky SE to Bermuda, and antecedent surface temps at or above 95°. We appear to have none of those in place.

[SnowenOutThere]

27 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Our best derechos come with a stout EML, high pressure centered from Kentucky SE to Bermuda, and antecedent surface temps at or above 95°. We appear to have none of those in place.

So would the storm mode mainly be pop-up microbursty stuff or a squall line? 

[Eskimo Joe]

10 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

So would the storm mode mainly be pop-up microbursty stuff or a squall line? 

Right now I would favor the "classic" microbursty line of storms. This is not a knock at SPC by any means, but I do not trust any severe weather forecast beyond D3 in the Mid Atlantic or Northeast. We simply have too many mesoscale features that can muck up a forecast. My favorite research papers for this part of the country are below, and all reference the issues that numerical weather prediction has in this part of the world. Highly worth the read:

 

• Guastini, Corey T. and Bosart, Lance F., 2016, "Analysis of a Progressive Derecho Climatology and Associated Formation Environments" Monthly Weather Review Vol. 144, No. 4, pp 1363, 1520-0493, https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/144/4/mwr-d-15-0256.1.xml
• Vaughan, Matthew T., Tang, Brian H., and Bosart, Lance F., 2017, "Climatology and Analysis of High-Impact, Low Predictive Skill Severe Weather Events in the Northeast United States" Weather and Forecasting Vol. 32, No. 5, pp 1903, 1520-0434, doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-17-0044.1
• Banacos, P. C., and M. L. Ekster, 2010: The Association of the Elevated Mixed Layer with Significant Severe Weather Events in the Northeastern United States. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 1082–1102, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010WAF2222363.1.
• Lombardo, K. A., and B. A. Colle, 2011: Convective Storm Structures and Ambient Conditions Associated with Severe Weather over the Northeast United States. Wea. Forecasting, 26, 940–956, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-11-00002.1.