CAPE Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago The new watch west of the bay is in effect until 10pm. The watch over here expires at 5pm. I'm guessing it would be extended. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Clearing here presently, DP up to 68, a steam bath. Basically missed round one with the two tonado warnings in Salem County, NJ., and the Georgetown/Dagsboro, DE / radar indicated Tornado warning. Very active week weatherwiseso far, and we are not done yet! Area in WV looks ominous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Garrett County getting mugged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Tornado warning SW Pennsylvania. Maybe a sneaky tornado threat this evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, AlexD1990 said: TOR for sussex county, DE. this storm went kidney shaped as soon as it fired This is the cell that I was watching on radar that formed on 404 between Denton and Bridgeville. We just settled on a place in Millville and are heading down in about 30 minutes. Too bad I didn't go down earlier, would have been driving parallel with the storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gunny23 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 24 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: Garrett County getting mugged That system just came through Davis - was over pretty quick but the wind is gusting big time now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 18z HRRR looks fun for this evening. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, CAPE said: 18z HRRR looks fun for this evening. Seems to be initializing poorly, so wonder how that bodes for this evening. If anything, feels like it could over-perform. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx12 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 324 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... West central Montgomery County in central Maryland... Southwestern Frederick County in north central Maryland... Northern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Southeastern Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 400 PM EDT. * At 324 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Round Hill, or near Charles Town, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Round Hill, Paeonian Springs, Purcellville, Leesburg, Waterford, Neersville, Doubs, Lucketts, Hillsboro, Point Of Rocks, Hamilton, Lovettsville, Tuscarora, Lincoln, Taylorstown, Rippon, Lansdowne, Poolesville, Adamstown, and Charles Town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 53 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: Garrett County getting mugged Bittinger gusted to 29 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago The Loudoun cell looks like it might be splitting or bowing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 332 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front is expected to lift through and to the northeast of the region today into late afternoon. A low pressure system will move into the Great Lakes today with a trailing cold front pushing through the area on Saturday. High pressure will build in from the north Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING/... A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for areas generally about a county north of the Interstate 64 corridor and areas north of that into PA until 10 PM this evening. This is in response to a combination of several key features. THe first of which is a remnant outflow boundary that was laid down this morning by a line of severe thunderstorms that passed to our northeast. This boundary is gradually washing out/drifting slowly towards the southeast into a hot and humid airmass, characterized by temperatures well into the 80s and dew points into the 70s. The result of this air mass is extreme instability values, with MLCAPE in the 2000-2500+ J/kg range. Lapse rates are going to continue to steepen into the afternoon in the low- levels, and they are already pretty high for Mid-Atlantic standards (around 7 C/km) in the mid-levels. The second key feature is a remnant MCV that is moving out of the KY/WV region, with ongoing convection moving into western portions of our forecast area. The expectation is that that ongoing MCS will move off towards the northeast, but outflow from this system will reignite convection as it cross the mountains into eastern WV/western MD. The one factor that does lead to some uncertainty is the presence of some pretty substantial westerly flow aloft. Oftentimes, this can squash a convective threat in this region. Guidance is generally leaning towards some development along the aforementioned boundaries however, so perhaps the remnant MCV is enough to overcome these mid-level westerlies. So, leaning more towards convection being able to develop than not. Once it does get going in our area, as mentioned previously, it is going to have a very favorable environment for explosive development and a substantial damaging wind threat into this evening as it drifts east. Additionally, given some very fat CAPE profiles, large hail would also be a substantial threat if more isolated convection is able to develop. This round of storms should move through pretty quickly into this evening, likely clearing the Chesapeake Bay by around 8-10 PM or so. Then most of the area should dry out, though a few lingering showers/storms may hang around if there are any remnant outflows hanging around. Outside of the severe component of all of this, there could be a non-zero flash flooding threat this afternoon/evening as well. Accompanying these threats will be very heavy rainfall rates at times and could occur over areas that had already taken on a lot of rainfall in the past few days. Additionally, there could end up being some training issues along that initial west-east oriented outflow boundary set down this morning. A Flood Watch wasn`t considered at this time, largely due to the uncertain nature of the convective evolution this afternoon. A marginal risk for excessive rainfall is also highlighted for our area today for the localized potential for some flash flooding. Another round of severe weather could be on the horizon later this evening into the overnight hours. This is still very uncertain though, and very dependent on yet another MCS developing to our west and tracking in such a way that would impact our area. Since we won`t have our daytime heating, the severity could be diminished some, but the humidity, nearby trough, approaching cold front on Saturday could be enough to make it interesting in terms of severe elements overnight. At this time, would feel more confident that this occurs across central/southern VA, but can`t be 100 percent certain at this time. This is very much a "wait and see what develops" scenario and will be much more in the way of NOWcasting later today. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: The Loudoun cell looks like it might be splitting or bowing out. Dying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx12 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 358 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Central Montgomery County in central Maryland... East central Loudoun County in northern Virginia... North central Fairfax County in northern Virginia... * Until 445 PM EDT. * At 358 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Leesburg, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Cabin John, Gaithersburg, Leesburg, Potomac, Washington Grove, Belmont, American Legion Bridge, Langley, Bradley Farms, North Potomac, Germantown, Redland, Poolesville, Mclean, Montgomery Village, Darnestown, Derwood, Lowes Island, Lansdowne, and Great Falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Dying Right turn and rewarned looks like to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Dying Definitely not as intense but it definitely is a clean split now on radar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Northern part warned for ping pong ball sized hail BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 400 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Southeastern Frederick County in north central Maryland... Northeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... * Until 445 PM EDT. * At 400 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Point Of Rocks, or 7 miles northwest of Poolesville, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Clarksburg, Damascus, Doubs, Park Mills, Lucketts, Adamstown, Barnesville, Green Valley, Point Of Rocks, Laytonsville, Dickerson, Monrovia, Tuscarora, Taylorstown, Montgomery Village, Buckeystown, and Germantown. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3939 7719 3935 7718 3934 7719 3931 7717 3918 7713 3921 7759 3928 7758 TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 267DEG 25KT 3924 7749 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx12 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 358 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Central Montgomery County in central Maryland... East central Loudoun County in northern Virginia... North central Fairfax County in northern Virginia... * Until 445 PM EDT. * At 358 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Leesburg, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Cabin John, Gaithersburg, Leesburg, Potomac, Washington Grove, Belmont, American Legion Bridge, Langley, Bradley Farms, North Potomac, Germantown, Redland, Poolesville, Mclean, Montgomery Village, Darnestown, Derwood, Lowes Island, Lansdowne, and Great Falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Nice supercell split to the NW of DC. There's an old outflow boundary (and a bay breeze!) to the east that could spell some trouble if those begin to interact with it. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Happy to see that nasty cell headed toward me split perfectly in two. I don't want hail! Looks like the same places in Clarksburg that got hail a couple weeks ago are gonna get it again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago The northern cell is still the more intense one it seems like. We'll see how this goes once they get some distance between each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Getting some pea sized hail and wind gusts to 30mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Here's the thunderstorm shield doing its work 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0820.html Mesoscale Discussion 0820 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Areas affected...western/central PA to northern VA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 263... Valid 162014Z - 162215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 263 continues. SUMMARY...A mix of damaging winds and severe hail remains possible through early evening from western to central Pennsylvania southward into northern Virginia. A corridor of greater damaging wind potential is apparent in central Maryland, the District of Columbia, and far northern Virginia. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage has steadily increased ahead of a minor MCV, and separately along a wavy outflow boundary. Measured strong to severe wind gusts have occurred along the outflow associated with the MCV. Very strong mid-level winds persist in the wake of this MCV, as sampled by recent RLX VWP data. With surface temperatures in the mid to upper 80s ahead of this outflow, yielding peak MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg, damaging wind swaths are most probable into central MD to far northern VA. Farther north, convection has largely struggled, outside of a slow-moving supercell along the separate outflow boundary in south-central PA. Mixed severe hail and damaging wind will remain possible here, amid weak low-level shear/SRH. ..Grams.. 05/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ... LAT...LON 41077947 41107851 41097790 40777722 39657638 38947630 38457635 38177670 38587811 39107820 39617826 40137886 40727947 41077947 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Cumberland airport gusted to 60 mph 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, BlizzardNole said: Garrett County getting mugged I had a 63 mph gust imby - strongest thunderstorm wind since I've been living here. Got 0.55" of rain in a short time too. Good storm because I didn't lose power thank god. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Martinsburg gusted to 62 mph 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago storm grew right overhead. torrential rain and some wind. I'm out of propane but had decided to put off getting more. looks like it was the right decision, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Another weakening MCS moving eastward from KY/southern OH may arrive towards daybreak per some guidance. Likely won't be as intense in the wake of previous storms/loss of daytime heating, but nonetheless more storms/heavy rain will be possible in some places. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago They reissued the severe thunderstorm watch for the Northern part of the Delmarva. Lol why not just have left the original watch goingSent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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