mitchnick Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Funny with that piece of guidance....was the farthest North a few days ago and now the farthest South. Wednesday and yesterday it gave me 2+" today and 12z today gave me 1+". I ended up with a coating in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Is that showing an inch of qpf all snow for dc/south? 25 mm is approximately 1 inch. Example I guess is 30x .04 =1.2 @ 10 to 1= 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Is that showing an inch of qpf all snow for dc/south? 25 mm is approximately 1 inch. But no mention of ratios. However, closest sleet is around Fredericksburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 18z GEFS looks pretty solid. Similar to 12z but just a tad drier. Mixing is a thing on a significant number of members for the lowlands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: 18z GEFS looks pretty solid. Similar to 12z but just a tad drier. Mixing is a thing on a significant number of members for the lowlands. Does the euro have 18Z eps? I'm only asking because I have never seen it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: 18z GEFS looks pretty solid. Similar to 12z but just a tad drier. Mixing is a thing on a significant number of members for the lowlands. What's your definition of lowlands. How far from the fall line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 GFS continues to spit out serious amounts in the highlands over the next couple of weeks. I'm up to 7" today and 30" on the year. I hope this rosy outlook verifies - would be like the winters in the 2000s and early 2010s. @jonjon will be buried and us in Oakland/Mountain Lake Park not far behind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 Wednesday and yesterday it gave me 2+" today and 12z today gave me 1+". I ended up with a coating in spots.I’d say predicting the precise location of isolated snow squalls is different than a full storm but… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 1 minute ago, jayyy said: I’d say predicting the precise location of isolated snow squalls is different than a full storm but… Atmospheric memory is a thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2025 Author Share Posted January 3, 2025 Alright...Varsity King has begun.... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 Atmospheric memory is a thing.Sure. But it’s an arctic front vs a complex storm setup. Not really the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2025 Author Share Posted January 3, 2025 Nothing new at this time. Out to hour 42 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2025 Author Share Posted January 3, 2025 ok...out to 51...slightly amp'd s/w...slightly less confluence. No expectations...it's really really minor 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2025 Author Share Posted January 3, 2025 Looking at precip...the shield is noticeable souther so far. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmvpete Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 1 hour ago, yoda said: Afternoon heavy snow and ice disco from WPC - https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd My colleague Josh Weiss wrote an exceptional discussion for the major winter storm portion. I took care of the other parts of the CONUS today. Lucky me...lol. 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2025 Author Share Posted January 3, 2025 Kinda recovered. At 66...snow starts at 9z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2025 Author Share Posted January 3, 2025 snowing pretty good at 9z...previous post was kinda right..northern edge of.precip is souther...or just slower? Let's see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2025 Author Share Posted January 3, 2025 Yeah, heaviest pushed south, but metros still doing ok. And now thermal issues. All snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 11 minutes ago, Paleocene said: What's your definition of lowlands. How far from the fall line? Basically DC and south/east in this case 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2025 Author Share Posted January 3, 2025 Yeah...south a bit...drier up this way. Central VA getting it pretty good 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2025 Author Share Posted January 3, 2025 Definitely moved south. Central VA RIC gonna be smoked 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 Euro and UK vs all else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2025 Author Share Posted January 3, 2025 Out by 1am Tuesday. RIC 15+ DCA 6-8 Balt 4-6 Take this with a grain of salt. SV maps suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 Just now, Deck Pic said: I know it busts badly sometimes. But when it's on, the Euro is a thing of elegant beauty. The Euro is my daddy Euro and UK is kinda on their own compared to all the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: I know it busts badly sometimes. But when it's on, the Euro is a thing of elegant beauty. The Euro is my daddy More people are going to start rooting for it to be wrong if it moves any more that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 Just now, winter_warlock said: Euro and UK is kinda on their own compared to all the other models Gonna be a meeting in the middle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 Just now, winter_warlock said: Euro and UK is kinda on their own compared to all the other models Euro has been rock steady for days. I would buy that over the Gfs unfortunately. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 This is really some 1980 miracle on ice battle of the Americans vs the Europeans. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 GFS is becoming a bigger outlier every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Out by 1am Tuesday. RIC 15+ DCA 6-8 Balt 4-6 Take this with a grain of salt. SV maps suck I think you'll find when comparing them to say Pivotal, the snowfall color scheme is too high on SV. Meaning 6" is really 4" and 4" is really 2", etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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