Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[GaWx]

 The coastal areas of especially much of the Carolinas are likely going to be affected a good bit this weekend by Invest 92L, located ~100 miles E of N FL as it heads generally N. Recon will be in it early this afternoon. It’s possible that they’ll find that it’s already a TD. If so, TS Chantal may not be far behind. Conditions are moderately conducive to development. See the Tropical subforum for a dedicated thread for this.

Edit 5PM: officially now is TD3 and forecasted to become TS Chantal before landfall on SC

[UnionCountyNCWX]

On 6/19/2025 at 11:27 AM, Upstate Tiger said:

As we wait for our impending heat wave to develop over the weekend, the latest ENSO forecast is out.  Looks to stay neutral into the fall.  Overall forecast still showing neutral to last into January (48%) but weak Nina has increased (41%) for late fall early next year.   

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

Just saw a post on FB from some met im not familiar with (not from the SE) that mentioned it's looking like another La Nina winter coming up. (Because why wouldn't it be lol)

 

Also my weekly "It's hot, turn in next week for another update" post.

 

Getting to head to Delray Beach, FL on Friday for a week. Feels weird to say im escaping the heat by going to Florida, but that is in fact the case. 

[Upstate Tiger]

Not a forecast endorsement but interesting reading for a hot afternoon.  Provides education on the complicated relationship of winter teleconnections. 
 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/early-forecast-data-weak-polar-vortex-united-states-canada-winter-2025-2026-fa/

 

[olafminesaw]

Soggy weather will continue until morale improves 

[BooneWX]

6 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

Soggy weather will continue until morale improves 

On the bright side, if that’s the case, my lawn looks like it’ll come through the worst of summer with minimum thinning. 

[wncsnow]

2 hours ago, BooneWX said:

On the bright side, if that’s the case, my lawn looks like it’ll come through the worst of summer with minimum thinning. 

I'll trade some thinning for mowing every 5 days..

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Did this year’s summer outlooks predict a soggy summer?

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[eyewall]

This has to be one of the worst summers I can remember for dewpoints. I am so ready for it to be over.

[olafminesaw]

2 hours ago, eyewall said:

This has to be one of the worst summers I can remember for dewpoints. I am so ready for it to be over.

It has been worse than normal, although July is typically fairly consistent in that regard. I think the rain makes it feel worse because RH% has somewhat of an impact on how humid it feels as well, not just the dewpoint.

[GaWx]

 Based on the quotes I copied below from June showing the GFS as having verified as being much too hot for highs, the 0Z 7/22 GFS will almost certainly verify as too hot and likely much too hot for highs as the hottest at ATL was 95 on 6/24 and 96 on 6/25.

 First, here’s the laughable 0Z 7/22 GFS for KPDK (NE ATL/Chamblee) (0Z Euro is much cooler there with hottest highs of “only” 101 on 7/30 and 103 on 7/31 and will likely come much closer): highs of 100 today vs FFC’s forecast of 96, 103 on 7/28, 104 on 7/29, 108 on 7/30, and 107 on 7/31 (Keeping in mind that FFC was almost spot on for the late June heat by being much cooler than the GFS, FFC’s forecast hottest through 7/29 is only mid 90s):

 Second, here are quotes of two posts I made elsewhere in late June showing the way too hot GFS progs for late June highs:

“KATL is also looking brutal on the 6Zs this week with these highs: (GFS/Euro)

6/22: 96/91
6/23: 99/95
6/24: 103/102
6/25: 101/104
6/26: 94/96
6/27: 96/87

 Currently FFC has ATL’s hottest on 6/25 with upper 90s, but they’re watching closely.”

and

”Which did better today for highs, GFS or Euro?

6Z GFS/Euro highs today for:

RDU: 103/99 vs actual of 100; Euro wins

GSO: 101/100 vs actual of 95; both were terrible though Euro less terrible

FAY: 99/99 vs actual of 98; both did well

ATL: 102/98 vs actual of 95; Euro did better than the awful GFS but still was 3 too hot

Euro also did better yesterday at GSO and FAY

 So for these 2 days overall, Euro did significantly better than GFS, which tended to be at least several degrees too hot.”

[GaWx]

 I compared the 0Z 7/22 GFS and Euro progged highs for ATL. Now I’ll do it for NC:

0Z 7/22 hottest highs for RDU/GSO/FAY:

0Z 7/22 GFS: RDU 102 (7/29), GSO 101 (7/29), FAY 104 (7/28)

0Z 7/22 Euro: RDU 98 (7/27); GSO 98 (7/27, 7/30, 7/31); FAY 100 (7/27)

 So, the 0Z 7/22 GFS’ hottest is hotter than that for the Euro by 3-4 F. That sounds quite familiar.

 Who do you favor? Based on many significantly too hot GFS runs and much closer Euro runs for the late June heatwave, I’m easily favoring the Euro for GSO/FAY. RDU is tricky though because of its often too hot sensor. So, I’ll go halfway between for RDU (what verified there in late June).

 So, I’m going 100 for RDU, 98 for GSO, and 100 for FAY as of now for a wild guess of the hottest of 7/27-31.

[eyewall]

I just want this summer to end quickly.

[NorthHillsWx]

3 hours ago, eyewall said:

I just want this summer to end quickly.

The humidity this summer has been off the charts. Today is a welcomed reprieve