Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[GaWx]

 The coastal areas of especially much of the Carolinas are likely going to be affected a good bit this weekend by Invest 92L, located ~100 miles E of N FL as it heads generally N. Recon will be in it early this afternoon. It’s possible that they’ll find that it’s already a TD. If so, TS Chantal may not be far behind. Conditions are moderately conducive to development. See the Tropical subforum for a dedicated thread for this.

Edit 5PM: officially now is TD3 and forecasted to become TS Chantal before landfall on SC

[UnionCountyNCWX]

On 6/19/2025 at 11:27 AM, Upstate Tiger said:

As we wait for our impending heat wave to develop over the weekend, the latest ENSO forecast is out.  Looks to stay neutral into the fall.  Overall forecast still showing neutral to last into January (48%) but weak Nina has increased (41%) for late fall early next year.   

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

Just saw a post on FB from some met im not familiar with (not from the SE) that mentioned it's looking like another La Nina winter coming up. (Because why wouldn't it be lol)

 

Also my weekly "It's hot, turn in next week for another update" post.

 

Getting to head to Delray Beach, FL on Friday for a week. Feels weird to say im escaping the heat by going to Florida, but that is in fact the case. 

[Upstate Tiger]

Not a forecast endorsement but interesting reading for a hot afternoon.  Provides education on the complicated relationship of winter teleconnections. 
 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/early-forecast-data-weak-polar-vortex-united-states-canada-winter-2025-2026-fa/

 

[olafminesaw]

Soggy weather will continue until morale improves 

[BooneWX]

6 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

Soggy weather will continue until morale improves 

On the bright side, if that’s the case, my lawn looks like it’ll come through the worst of summer with minimum thinning. 

[wncsnow]

2 hours ago, BooneWX said:

On the bright side, if that’s the case, my lawn looks like it’ll come through the worst of summer with minimum thinning. 

I'll trade some thinning for mowing every 5 days..