Winter Banter 24-25

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

NWS Local point and clock has a little bit of snow:

Ground Hog Day

Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Wind chill values between 15 and 25. East wind around 7 mph.

Tonight

Snow, mixing with rain after 10pm, then gradually ending. Steady temperature around 34. Southeast wind 5 to 7 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

 

Ground Hog Day

Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Wind chill values between 15 and 25. East wind around 7 mph.

 

Sunday Night

Snow, mixing with rain after 10pm, then gradually ending. Steady temperature around 34. Southeast wind 5 to 7 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

 

Ground Hog Day

Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Wind chill values between 15 and 25. East wind around 7 mph.

are they forecasting a time loop too (or three).....

[Snowshack]

Traveling for work to Pontiac, MI - can't even luck into snow here -- looks the same as Long Island

[Volcanic Winter]

There’s a bit of an ongoing seismic crisis at Santorini / Kolumbo volcanoes in Greece (Kolumbo is a neighboring system of Santorini, only a few miles northeast - and is also capable of powerful eruptions and has done so in historic times). 

The resurgent dome of Nea Kameini in the middle of Santorini’s caldera has effusively erupted numerous times in recent history, but this doesn’t appear to be that as the locus of quakes is between the two systems. 

This, IMHO, is very unusual. And appropriately, Santorinians are quite nervous at the moment.

It’s unlikely any major eruption is about to begin just because, as always, large eruptions at any given system are rare. But something is going on and this warrants considerable caution. I’m seeing daily large magnitude quakes … mag 4-5. 

I have actually been to Santorini in the late 2000’s, I dated a young Greek woman when I was just starting college and I traveled with her there. Santorini is unbelievably beautiful, but also the size and magnitude of the caldera is incredibly apparent - the whole area is born of extremely powerful volcanism. 
 

Edit: 9000 evacuate Santorini

https://watchers.news/2025/02/04/over-9-000-people-evacuate-santorini-as-seismic-crisis-worsens-uk-issues-travel-advisory-greece/

If the seismic activity continues to escalate and doesn’t begin to peter out relatively soon, the chances of an eruption  increase. However they’re also talking about this as a potential tectonic event or prelude to a large earthquake. Part of why is because the locus of quakes is between the two magma centers of both volcanoes which is part of why this whole thing is odd in the first place. No idea what’s going to happen, I wouldn’t have thought this type of seismic crisis as foreshocks to a large earthquake (this seems volcanic for sure, IMHO) - but I overall agree in getting people out of the area. Something is definitely going down right now. 

[North and West]

There’s a bit of an ongoing seismic crisis at Santorini / Kolumbo volcanoes in Greece (Kolumbo is a neighboring system of Santorini, only a few miles northeast - and is also capable of powerful eruptions and has done so in historic times). 
The resurgent dome of Nea Kameini in the middle of Santorini’s caldera has effusively erupted numerous times in recent history, but this doesn’t appear to be that as the locus of quakes is between the two systems. 
This, IMHO, is very unusual. And appropriately, Santorinians are quite nervous at the moment.
It’s unlikely any major eruption is about to begin just because, as always, large eruptions at any given system are rare. But something is going on and this warrants considerable caution. I’m seeing daily large magnitude quakes … mag 4-5. 
I have actually been to Santorini in the late 2000’s, I dated a young Greek woman when I was just starting college and I traveled with her there. Santorini is unbelievably beautiful, but also the size and magnitude of the caldera is incredibly apparent - the whole area is born of extremely powerful volcanism. 

The past five years have been just terrific. Glad to see it’s getting better.


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[donsutherland1]

FYI: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/04/doge-noaa-headquarters

[Nibor]

55 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

FYI: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/04/doge-noaa-headquarters

What I want to say will probably get me arrested.

[Rjay]

It's coming

 

[rclab]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

It's coming

 

 

48 minutes ago, Nibor said:

What I want to say will probably get me arrested.

Point taken Nibor. As always …..

 

[NorthShoreWx]

9 minutes ago, Rjay said:

It's coming

 

Yeah, stop wasting taxpayer money on NOAA and let these guys take over.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, NorthShoreWx said:

Yeah, stop wasting taxpayer money on NOAA and let these guys take over.

Joe bastardi,  head of the new American weather service 

[Rjay]

36 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Joe bastardi,  head of the new American weather service 

Hear they're building a state of the art facility in Greenland. 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

FYI: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/04/doge-noaa-headquarters

we can just use the euro for all our forecasts right?

I wish I could get all my food from europe too, since it's much healthier.

[donsutherland1]

32 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

we can just use the euro for all our forecasts right?

I wish I could get all my food from europe too, since it's much healthier.

There's a lot more than just the models being at risk. NWS forecasting jobs, research, digital content, etc., could all be at risk. There's also the possibility that a lot of what is public could be privatized. Already, the Musk team has made a move in that direction by eliminating the IRS's free e-file platform.

[North and West]

FYI: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/04/doge-noaa-headquarters

I hope they’re asking why watches are issues either seemingly really early or really late. We need to make advisories sensible again.


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[weatherpruf]

14 hours ago, Rjay said:

Hear they're building a state of the art facility in Greenland. 

Why not. Could be warm enough soon.

[weatherpruf]

15 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Joe bastardi,  head of the new American weather service 

I'm sure there's a 25 year old Rutgers grad who can do it....wait a sec....

[weatherpruf]

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

There's a lot more than just the models being at risk. NWS forecasting jobs, research, digital content, etc., could all be at risk. There's also the possibility that a lot of what is public could be privatized. Already, the Musk team has made a move in that direction by eliminating the IRS's free e-file platform.

We are well beyond "could be." 

[bobjohnsonforthehall]

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

There's a lot more than just the models being at risk. NWS forecasting jobs, research, digital content, etc., could all be at risk. There's also the possibility that a lot of what is public could be privatized. Already, the Musk team has made a move in that direction by eliminating the IRS's free e-file platform.

Buuuuuuuuuut the free e-file program still exists. Link below. Although I'm not entirely sure why someone would trust the IRS to make sure that you pay as little in taxes as possible. 

 

https://www.irs.gov/filing/irs-free-file-do-your-taxes-for-free

[BxEngine]

Keep to the weather aspect of the govt bs. 

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

Keep to the weather aspect of the govt bs. 

i can't wait for all the models to be paywalled so i stop seeing snow maps

[donsutherland1]

For an update on the situation at the NOAA:

https://abcnews.go.com/US/doge-now-access-noaas-systems-reviewing-dei-program/story

[bobjohnsonforthehall]

19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

For an update on the situation at the NOAA:

https://abcnews.go.com/US/doge-now-access-noaas-systems-reviewing-dei-program/story

Interesting read. Lots of speculation and scare and little in terms of actual knowledge of what is actually happening.  Certainly wants the reader to feel a certain way without any actual facts though so I guess if that was the point of the story then...mission accomplished?

[Rjay]

21 minutes ago, bobjohnsonforthehall said:

Interesting read. Lots of speculation and scare and little in terms of actual knowledge of what is actually happening.  Certainly wants the reader to feel a certain way without any actual facts though so I guess if that was the point of the story then...mission accomplished?

Sure, nothing to see here, right?  

[bobjohnsonforthehall]

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Sure, nothing to see here, right?  

Speculation disguised as a news story does nobody any good. Most especially when the author doesn't have the intellectual or journalistic curiosity to do anything but parrot talking points of a singular point of view.

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, bobjohnsonforthehall said:

Speculation disguised as a news story does nobody any good. Most especially when the author doesn't have the intellectual or journalistic curiosity to do anything but parrot talking points of a singular point of view.

I hate when people diss parrots in this way, parrots have an extremely high level of intelligence, easily higher than most people in this forum.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

i can't wait for all the models to be paywalled so i stop seeing snow maps

Hey there's a positive side to all this.....

 

[coastalplainsnowman]

37 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I hate when people diss parrots in this way, parrots have an extremely high level of intelligence, easily higher than most people in this forum.

LibertyBell you have some awesome responses sometimes.  They remind me of Kramer from Seinfeld. Apolitical, above the fray of the heated debate, the first thing that comes to your mind is: "you guys are really doing parrots an injustice here."  lol that's great.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

LibertyBell you have some awesome responses sometimes.  They remind me of Kramer from Seinfeld. Apolitical, above the fray of the heated debate, the first thing that comes to your mind is: "you guys are really doing parrots an injustice here."  lol that's great.

I think it's best to be apolitical especially when you see people from *both sides* doing some very silly things.

Makes you wonder why there should be *sides* in the first place when our goals should be for the betterment of all.

Thanks for the great compliment-- it's much appreciated!

 

[LibertyBell]

Onto something mysterious, giant chunks of ice falling from a clear blue sky in Florida

 

https://nypost.com/2025/02/05/us-news/massive-chunk-of-ice-falls-from-the-sky-pierces-roof-of-florida-home-and-no-ones-sure-where-it-came-from/

 

There's probably a simple explanation for this like it falling from a plane, but accounts of huge chunks of ice falling from a clear sky predate the existence of air planes. They're called megaicycryometeors.

 

https://www.wwnytv.com/2025/02/05/large-chunk-ice-falls-sky-crashes-into-roof-this-is-first/

 

The homeowners say they’re thankful they weren’t home at the time.

“When something occurs, what the potential life threat could be is what we’re kind of looking at,” Berryhill added. “And in this situation, a large object falling from the sky is going to gain speed fast. It’s going to cause tremendous bodily harm or possibly even death.”

The FAA has not yet determined the source of the falling ice.

 

https://www.wptv.com/news/state/large-chunk-of-ice-falls-from-sky-smashes-through-roof-of-home-in-palm-coast#:~:text=In past incidents%2C falling ice,formation of "blue ice."

 

The ice chunks that are connected to aircraft are *blue ice* (some chemicals must be mixed in to make it blue), but the ones not linked to aircraft have no color.

 

Authorities are still investigating the source of the ice. In past incidents, falling ice chunks have been linked to aircraft. Ice can accumulate on planes at high altitudes and break away as they descend into warmer air. Additionally, while aircraft are not permitted to eject waste mid-flight, leaks can occur, leading to the formation of "blue ice."

[LibertyBell]

https://skybrary.aero/articles/megacryometeor

 

Description

A megacryometeor is a very large chunk of ice which, despite sharing many textural, hydro-chemical, and isotopic features found in large hailstones, is formed under unusual atmospheric conditions which clearly differ from those of the cumulonimbus cloud scenario (i.e clear sky conditions). They are sometimes called huge hailstones, but unlike hailstones do not need to form under thunderstorm conditions.

Mass and size

More than 50 megacryometeors have been recorded since 2000. They vary in mass between 0.5 Kg to several tens of kilograms. One in Brazil weighed in at more than 50 Kg.

Formation

The process that creates megacryometeors is not completely understood yet, mainly with respect to the atmospheric dynamics necessary to produce them. They may have a similar mechanism of formation that which leads to the formation of hailstones. Scientific studies show that their composition matches normal tropospheric rainwater for the areas in which they fall. In addition, megacryometeors also display textural variations of the ice surface and hydro-chemical and isotopic heterogeneity in its composition, which gives potential evidence to a complex formation process in the lower atmosphere. It is known that they do not form from airplane toilet leakage because the large chunks of ice that occasionally do fall from airliners are distinctly blue due to the disinfectant use by them (hence the common term "blue ice").

Some have speculated that these ice chunks must have fallen from aircraft fuselages after plain water ice accumulating on those aircraft through normal atmospheric conditions has simply broken loose. However, similar events also occurred prior to the invention of aircraft. Studies show that meteorological fluctuations in tropopause, associated with hydration of the lower stratosphere and stratospheric cooling, can be related to their formation. A detailed micro-Ramen spectroscopic study made it possible to place the formation of the megacryometeors within a particular range of temperatures: -10 to -20 C. They are sometimes confused with meteors because they leave small impact craters, though they form in the atmosphere and not outer space.