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Central PA Autumn 2024


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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I admittedly know nothing about tropical systems. I did read commentary in the lead in to Helene that any storm, regardless of intensity is potentially less damaging if it's in a weakening state upon approach vs. a storm that's intensifying at landfall. No idea if a storm that was 185 mph that hits the coast at 145 mph is any better than a 100 mph storm that reaches 120 mph at landfall. I guess at some point the pendulum flips in regards to intensity. 

A lot of times a weakening storm won’t do as well at tapping the winds aloft to the surface, especially with dying or disorganized convection around the core. A deepening storm with explosive convective development are where you see the very high winds aloft translated to the surface efficiently.

Every major hurricane is kind of unique in what it ultimately does in terms of wind/surge impact and how widespread the impacts are. Currently, the wind field of Milton is very confined.. owing to an extremely tight pressure gradient to go with its exceptionally low pressure. The 5pm advisory estimated the hurricane force wind field out only 25 nautical miles from the eye in all 4 quadrants, and 40 nautical miles for >50kts. TS force winds on 3/4 quadrants are  70-80nm with the NW quadrants out to 120nm. If this storm were impacting Florida right now in its current state, there would obviously be extreme damage and surge where the core of the storm impacted, but the absolute worst would be really confined. A “weaker” hurricane of this nature becomes a larger one. Instead of the extremely tight pressure gradient we have now, that pressure field expands and hence expands the wind field. When this is getting to the FL coast it could be one of those cases of maintaining a very low central pressure (for example a high end cat 4 pressure), but not necessarily focused cat 4-cat 5 winds. With that type of structure change could come a much larger field of weaker (but still destructive) hurricane force winds.. which would boost storm surge potential over a much bigger area along with the wind damage impacts. Time will tell how this eventually evolves with it’s structure, and if the forecast shear can weaken this more than expected in a better case scenario.. but this needs to be taken very seriously anywhere where there’s mandatory evacuations. The angle of attack of this coming eastward into the west coast of FL is a very bad one regardless when it comes to surge.

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20 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I second this thought and also will mention that discussing this does not mean we are wishing it.  I know sometimes it can come off that way.   I surely hope they have left. 

Thanks. And I know no one wishes for destructive weather. Discussing it is still our passion. 
 

Little one and mom are in Texas. Dad and parents and grandparents all staying. 

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Thanks. And I know no one wishes for destructive weather. Discussing it is still our passion. 
 
Little one and mom are in Texas. Dad and parents and grandparents all staying. 
I have lots of family in Melbourne. Eye may go very close to them.

Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk

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2 minutes ago, canderson said:

Thanks. And I know no one wishes for destructive weather. Discussing it is still our passion. 
 

Little one and mom are in Texas. Dad and parents and grandparents all staying. 

And they are on the ocean on the bay?  I forget.  Either way I personally think they should leave.

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2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

48 when I left the house. The next couple of nights may cause some to turn on the heat for the first time. I’ll try and resist but the wife and kids will make it hard. Weekend looks splendid. 

I set my heat at 65 last night but it never came on.

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Currently 46 degrees. 
4.14lb won the one fish lurker tournament yesterday. I had 2.16 lb 

Here is a picture of my morning 4 mile run.

I have friends that live down in St Pete.
Definitely not a good situation down there.

 

IMG_1153.jpeg

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Some spots including Warwick Twp. dropped into the 30's (38.7) this morning. Dry and cool weather continues over the next couple days highs tomorrow will struggle to escape the 50's in the higher spots with even some frost possible in the lower spots by Friday morning. We warm to a little above normal this weekend before falling back to well below to start the new work week. We may see more widespread frost by next Wednesday morning or so. Of note today in 1979 marks the start of the earliest recorded snow event in Chester County with the 1" at Morgantown/Elverson and 3" recorded on the 10th at Devault. Growing up in Northeast Philadelphia I remember this event as we received a coating there and it was the earliest I ever saw snow.image.png.7993c9728de6a14d0875943a5ccdd9fb.pngimage.png.de9e5921831d10f35edbbec1fb77d4e7.png

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