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Central PA Autumn 2024


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2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Waddams is hanging on. The shear that was supposed to relatively demolish this guy just isn't getting it done and it appears the ERC has finished and final approach may be harsher than initially thought. 

 

Most thought it wouldn't recover before landfall.  That is NOT good news.

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Bubbler, you're the Florida man of the group. Costlier disaster: This thing landfalls just south of Tampa and spares the worst of the surge going right up the gut but still destroys a lot of the surrounding areas, or a landfall around Cape Coral where it appears there is a boom in construction?

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21 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Bubbler, you're the Florida man of the group. Costlier disaster: This thing landfalls just south of Tampa and spares the worst of the surge going right up the gut but still destroys a lot of the surrounding areas, or a landfall around Cape Coral where it appears there is a boom in construction?

Florda Man is an insult.  Ha.  I unfortunately think this thing landfalls into Tampa or St Pete and throws 10–15-foot surge into Tampa and still destroys LBK, AMI, Bradenton Beaches, etc.  This is all assuming the surge predicts are right, I have no way of knowing that other than to trust those models.    I think the worst case for money is a landfall from Cedar Key down to Sarasota.  If I am wrong and it is down as far as Sarasota, then Tampa is spared some surge.     The Barrier Islands all the way down to the tip of Florida get flooded as well if it landfalls between Cedar Key and Sarasota. 

 

Someone could see surge going 5-10 miles inland. 

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This situation in Florida just screams "Nerd creating an EAS scenario video on YouTube" with the major hurricane and PDS tornadic outbreak. My EAS scenario Bingo card is just missing something happening to a nuclear reactor from being a winner. 

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4 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

2pm advisory: 130 mph, 944 mb as Milton grows to be a big boy. 

It seems to be moving for the coast a bit early compared to some of the models the last 24 hours...but will go with high Cat 2 or Low Cat 3 at landfall.   With it being 130 now, Cat 4 is probably off the books. 

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5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It seems to be moving for the coast a bit early compared to some of the models the last 24 hours...but will go with high Cat 2 or Low Cat 3 at landfall.   With it being 130 now, Cat 4 is probably off the books. 

The only positive I see is that it should be across Florida and into the Atlantic in 6-8 hours. Worst case is for it to meander off the west coast for hours before making its move inland.

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Just now, mitchnick said:

The only positive I see is that it should be across Florida and into the Atlantic in 6-8 hours. Worst case is for it to meander off the west coast for hours before making its move inland.

I think some East Coast people are in for a tough time as well.   From the 'Cane itself then the onshore flow once it passes by.  

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Morons are currently on the beaches in St. Pete and Clearwater. 

I'm going to go ahead and crush a soapbox right now: If you are in an area that is under mandatory evac, if you are caught outside, the jail sentence you should receive should be staggering. And the fine you receive should bankrupt your descendants. 

Rescue should not be an option. You are on your own. 

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2 hours ago, Atomixwx said:

Morons are currently on the beaches in St. Pete and Clearwater. 

I'm going to go ahead and crush a soapbox right now: If you are in an area that is under mandatory evac, if you are caught outside, the jail sentence you should receive should be staggering. And the fine you receive should bankrupt your descendants. 

Rescue should not be an option. You are on your own. 

I think most people left will not get rescue until windows go below 40.    He has his eyes on Tampa right now with the eye wall.  But he is falling apart like the Cowboys Super Bowl aspirations.  

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3 hours ago, Atomixwx said:

Morons are currently on the beaches in St. Pete and Clearwater. 

I'm going to go ahead and crush a soapbox right now: If you are in an area that is under mandatory evac, if you are caught outside, the jail sentence you should receive should be staggering. And the fine you receive should bankrupt your descendants. 

Rescue should not be an option. You are on your own. 

Cheaper to let them go and just pay for their funeral. Lol

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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
304 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

PAZ019-025>028-034-035-045-046-049>053-058-101700-
/O.NEW.KCTP.FR.Y.0010.241011T0600Z-241011T1300Z/
Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill-
Including the cities of Lewistown, Shamokin, Lock Haven,
Huntingdon, State College, Mifflintown, Bedford, Williamsport,
Selinsgrove, Lewisburg, Altoona, McConnellsburg, Sunbury,
Pottsville, Berwick, Mount Union, Danville, and Bloomsburg
304 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 33 degrees will result in frost
  formation.

* WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania, including the Middle
  Susquehanna Valley.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive
  outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants and vegetation from the cold.

Potted plants should be brought inside.

The frost will occur mainly in valley locations.
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7 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
304 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

PAZ019-025>028-034-035-045-046-049>053-058-101700-
/O.NEW.KCTP.FR.Y.0010.241011T0600Z-241011T1300Z/
Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill-
Including the cities of Lewistown, Shamokin, Lock Haven,
Huntingdon, State College, Mifflintown, Bedford, Williamsport,
Selinsgrove, Lewisburg, Altoona, McConnellsburg, Sunbury,
Pottsville, Berwick, Mount Union, Danville, and Bloomsburg
304 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 33 degrees will result in frost
  formation.

* WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania, including the Middle
  Susquehanna Valley.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive
  outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants and vegetation from the cold.

Potted plants should be brought inside.

The frost will occur mainly in valley locations.

My first potted plants warning is coming soon.  Just missed this one.  Potted plants are a mixed thing as we see it on the way in and out of winter. 

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