September 2024

[Rjay]

0.0001"

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Propblem for Mets  / Braves baseballl Wed - Thu

 

only a problem if the braves win the first 2 games..

[bluewave]

On 9/22/2024 at 3:48 PM, MJO812 said:

We need this in 4 months. 

Unfortunately, it wouldn’t be much help in 4 months if the Greenland Block continues linking up with the Southeast Ridge. Notice how the Southeast Ridge is correcting stronger for Thursday. So the models have pushed the heaviest rains north of I-78 from previous runs. We also get into SW flow which has been a rarity this month. So the usual warm spots in NJ could make it over 80° in what was originally forecast to be a cooler day. 

New run

 

Old run

 

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Unfortunately, it wouldn’t be much help in 4 months if the Greenland Block continues linking up with the Southeast Ridge. Notice how the Southeast Ridge is correcting stronger for Thursday. So the models have pushed the heaviest rains north of I-78 from previous runs. We also get into SW flow which has been a rarity this month. So the usual warm spots in NJ could make it over 80° in what was originally forecast to be a cooler day. 

New run

 

Old run

 

 

 

A swap with what was a much warmer forecast for Monday (yesterday).   Clouds may get in the way but if enough sun heights pushing 588 DM and 850 MB temps in the 16c range.  What an interesting pattern

[SACRUS]

 

63 / 50 cloudy. Cloudy and showers and some spotty drizzle today and Wed.  Helene targets the Panhandle and southeast and pumps heights on the EC. Warmer Thu / Fri could get to or exceed 80 with enough clearing. Drier weekend, may be cloudy Saturday but a nicer sunday.  Overall drier and warmer.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Major C 3/4 west of Tampa

 

[SACRUS]

10 hours ago, nycwinter said:

only a problem if the braves win the first 2 games..

Looks like Wed/Thu are possible rain outs and for Atl it remains wet Fri/Sat vs the KC R.   Not sure what MLB would do,  they only have Mon 30th before the WC playoffs.  Atl should and every other EC team have built a dome.  

[SACRUS]

 

someone is doing the rain rain stay away dance on loop or the record is skipping.

 

[Allsnow]

Brutal. Driest September on record 

[ForestHillWx]

Actually had a nip in the air this morning. Went with a long sleeve short/shorts combo getting the kids off to school…

[Brian5671]

models with a swath of rain NYC/north tomorrow night

[gravitylover]

18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

models with a swath of rain NYC/north tomorrow night

2" centered over me. I hope it starts slow so the ground softens before the heavy stuff or the runoff will be painful. 

[bluewave]

50 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Brutal. Driest September on record 

All previous major hurricanes taking the same track as Helene came NNE up along the coast or OTS. This will be the first time a major hurricane bends back toward the NW. Just goes to show how anomalous a blocking pattern we are in.

 

All historical major hurricanes taking track close to forecast Helene

 

Rare bend back to NW after landfall

 

 

 

 

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

All previous major hurricanes taking the same track as Helene came NNE up along the coast or OTS. This will be the first time a major hurricane bends back toward the NW. Just goes to show how anomalous a blocking pattern we are in.

 

All historical major hurricanes taking track close to forecast Helene

 

Rare bend back to NW after landfall

 

 

 

 

That’s two gulf storms this month that failed to produce a sprinkle here 

[uofmiami]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

All previous major hurricanes taking the same track as Helene came NNE up along the coast or OTS. This will be the first time a major hurricane bends back toward the NW. Just goes to show how anomalous a blocking pattern we are in.

 

All historical major hurricanes taking track close to forecast Helene

 

Rare bend back to NW after landfall

 

 

 

 

Assuming Helene to be strengthens to a major hurricane, we shall see. If not, what do those maps show?  Probably a bend back NW, etc. 

[doncat]

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

That’s two gulf storms this month that failed to produce a sprinkle here 

Yeah and also that strong coastal that moved NW into the Carolina's.

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Assuming Helene to be strengthens to a major hurricane, we shall see. If not, what do those maps show?  Probably a bend back NW, etc. 

It's kinda funny all the talk of a major hurricane and it's not even named yet.

[uofmiami]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's kinda funny all the talk of a major hurricane and it's not even named yet.

The way this hurricane season has gone to date, I'd be hesitant to go along with the models on intensity, especially at this early stage of development too.  We'll see how strong PTC9 gets in the days ahead.

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Assuming Helene to be strengthens to a major hurricane, we shall see. If not, what do those maps show?  Probably a bend back NW, etc. 

All 22 hurricanes of any intensity passing through that area moving NNE continued recurving to the NE and none bent back to the NW.

[Brian5671]

14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's kinda funny all the talk of a major hurricane and it's not even named yet.

keeps getting delayed too...

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

keeps getting delayed too...

Would be a huge bust

[Allsnow]

All this hurricane talk as The Atlantic continues to be a dry desert. Major fail by the pros of a active/historic season 

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Would be a huge bust

I would think it forms but some of the hurricane models are strong TS or Cat 1 for top strength....but who knows we've seen some of these go to town very quickly.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

I would think it forms but some of the hurricane models are strong TS or Cat 1 for top strength....but who knows we've seen some of these go to town very quickly.

Yeah it definitely still could 

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

All this hurricane talk as The Atlantic continues to be a dry desert. Major fail by the pros of a active/historic season 

It's been so boring that a typical cane in the gulf is a major topic lol.  Kind of like in some of our horrid winters how an inch or two snow event becomes a big deal.

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

All this hurricane talk as The Atlantic continues to be a dry desert. Major fail by the pros of a active/historic season 

The landfall forecast was better than the ACE and total storms which were too high. It’s interesting that the Euro correctly forecast the more stable air over the tropics but missed on the ACE and number of storms. The summer temperature forecast did very well.

 

 

 

[Stormlover74]

Nam is fairly wet while 3k favors nw areas

[Brian5671]

I'll take anything at this point.

[Stormlover74]

Rgem is .5 to 1" city on west but hasn't been reliable of late

[MANDA]

11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I'll take anything at this point.

Same here.  Anything!