July 2024

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, winterwarlock said:

ah ok...im sorry i thought this was days over 90...anyone have that chart

Let's pull up a dew point chart too while we're at it.

The data supports this summer as being one of the hottest already, now combine that with average dews. 

And it's only gonna get hotter. 

[qg_omega]

On 7/5/2024 at 11:45 AM, SnoSki14 said:

Good luck dodging rain with dews in the upper 70s

 

On 7/5/2024 at 12:02 PM, forkyfork said:

everyone start preparing for flooding now

18z Euro for the week

[winterwarlock]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

 

18z Euro for the week

wow...what about Saturday

[FPizz]

2 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

wow...what about Saturday

18z only goes to 90, but I think ensembles go to 144

[psv88]

93 today. 

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

NYC:95
TTN: 95
PHL: 95
New Brnswck: 94
EWR: 94
TEB: 93
LGA: 992
ISP: 90
JFK: 89
ACY: 89
BLM: 87

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 105 (1993)
NYC: 100 (1993)
LGA: 99 (1994)
JFK:  97 (1971)


Lows:

EWR: 56 (1948)
NYC: 56 (1894)
LGA: 60 (1984)
JFK: 59 (2018)

Historical:

1680: The first confirmed tornado death in the United States occurred in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The funnel was filled with, stones, bushes, and other things. The tornado also unroofed a barn and snapped many large trees.

1816 - Frost was reported in low places throughout New England. (David Ludlum)

1950 - The town of York, NE, was deluged with 13.15 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1975 - Three people were killed and six others were injured when lightning struck a walnut tree near Mayo, FL. The nine people were stringing tobacco under a tin shed when the bolt hit the nearby tree. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms in the central U.S. produced wind gusts to 90 mph at Waterloo, IA, 6.38 inches of rain at Tescott, KS, and twenty-five minutes of ping-pong ball size hail at Drummond, OK. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thirty cities in the north central and northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Beckley, WV, equalled their all-time record with a high of 93 degrees. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms spawned seven tornadoes in Adams and Logan counties of eastern Colorado, and hail caused 2.3 million dollars damage in Adams, Logan and Washington counties. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Sixteen cities in the central and western U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 103 degrees at Denver, CO, equalled their record for July, and a 110 degree reading at Rapid City, SD, equalled their all-time record high. Denver reported a record five straight days of 100 degree heat, and Scottsbluff, NE, reported a record eight days in a row of 100 degree weather. (The National Weather Summary)

2003: What may be the world's highest dew point temperature was recorded at Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, in the Persian Gulf. A dew point of 95 degrees was recorded at 3 PM while the air temperature was 108 degrees. The apparent temperature at that time would have been 172 degrees.

 

[SACRUS]

4 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

yep but there are 8 years from 2000 similar or worse including 2002 which is the grandaddy

For which site? and do you want to see  90 degree days thru jul 8th?

[Rtd208]

High for the day yesterday was 95 here.

Current temp 74/DP 73/RH 97%

[SnoSki14]

8 hours ago, qg_omega said:

 

18z Euro for the week

It's definitely been underwhelming. Useless heat/humidity that hasn't yielded anything 

It's like cold/dry in the winter. Probably will have to wait til more tropical activity springs up later in the summer. 

Euro has a very active August/September for east coast. 

[bluewave]

We knew that the bulk of the moisture with Beryl would go west from a few days ago due to the record breaking WAR to 603 dam. Our next chance of more widespread heavy convection will probably hold off until Thursday into Saturday with the slowly moving front. The Euro was too dry last weekend compared to SPC HREF that did much better with the heavy rains. The GFS has the possibility for 2”+ with that round of convection where the best training sets up. So a continuation of the rain on weekends theme going back to March 1st.

 

 

Data for July 5, 2024 through July 7, 2024
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

CT	DANBURY	COOP	3.17
NY	SOUTH SALEM 0.8 N	CoCoRaHS	3.04
CT	MERIDEN 2.8 WSW	CoCoRaHS	2.93
CT	RIDGEFIELD 2.4 NNE	CoCoRaHS	2.81
CT	BETHEL 3.5 NNE	CoCoRaHS	2.64
CT	SOUTHBURY 2.3 W	CoCoRaHS	2.64
CT	MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP	WBAN	2.63
CT	WALLINGFORD CENTER 3.3 NNW	CoCoRaHS	2.60
CT	MIDDLEFIELD 1.4 W	CoCoRaHS	2.58
CT	GUILFORD	COOP	2.52
NY	STONY POINT 0.7 NW	CoCoRaHS	2.47
CT	PROSPECT 1.9 ENE	CoCoRaHS	2.33
CT	PROSPECT 0.5 SW	CoCoRaHS	2.30

 

 

[Dark Star]

10 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

People over estimate the number of 90 degree days we get on average across the area. 

Maybe because the heat index (real feel) is talked about too much?  I would prefer less emphasis be put on "real feel" temps, even though there might be actual health risks involved.  Too many people hear wind chill of 10 degrees, and think that is the actual temperature.

[Dark Star]

42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We knew that the bulk of the moisture with Beryl would go west from a few days ago due to the record breaking WAR to 603 dam. Our next chance of more widespread heavy convection will probably hold off until Friday into Saturday with the slowly moving front. The Euro was too dry last weekend compared to SPC HREF that did much better with the heavy rains. The GFS has the possibility for 2”+ with that round of convection where the best training sets up. So a continuation of the rain on weekends theme going back to March 1st.

 

 

Data for July 5, 2024 through July 7, 2024
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

CT	DANBURY	COOP	3.17
NY	SOUTH SALEM 0.8 N	CoCoRaHS	3.04
CT	MERIDEN 2.8 WSW	CoCoRaHS	2.93
CT	RIDGEFIELD 2.4 NNE	CoCoRaHS	2.81
CT	BETHEL 3.5 NNE	CoCoRaHS	2.64
CT	SOUTHBURY 2.3 W	CoCoRaHS	2.64
CT	MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP	WBAN	2.63
CT	WALLINGFORD CENTER 3.3 NNW	CoCoRaHS	2.60
CT	MIDDLEFIELD 1.4 W	CoCoRaHS	2.58
CT	GUILFORD	COOP	2.52
NY	STONY POINT 0.7 NW	CoCoRaHS	2.47
CT	PROSPECT 1.9 ENE	CoCoRaHS	2.33
CT	PROSPECT 0.5 SW	CoCoRaHS	2.30

 

 

Just another example of 4-7 day models not getting it right

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Just another example of 4-7 day models not getting it right

One of the bigger issues in recent years has been the models underestimating the WAR day 6-10. So it’s no surprise the WAR is trending stronger the closer we get. But with these record high dew points there is always going to be convection around. We usually need to get within the range of the CAMs like HREF for more specific forecasts. While these CAMS can signal the potential for heavy rains, the exact location is usually off. That’s why I like to look at the Upton and Mt Holly zones in totality for what our options could be. Then wait until we get closer in to refine. Same goes for winter systems since we still haven’t gotten to the point of perfect IMBY forecasts even into the shorter range. 

[SACRUS]

 

78 / 73 . Partly cloudy, foggy beaches and hazy, hot humid.   Low - mid 90s strong Southerly flow , blast of 850 MB temps >20C later today into tomorrow.  Enough sun will push temps higher with less onshore.  Rain chances increase Wed PM - Fri with strong tropical flow, boundary (whats left of Bryl)and cut off low spinning around the preriphery of the Atlantic ridge offshore.  Beyond there continued hot with a more SW flow Sun (7/14) - Tue (7/16), could see some 95 temp.   Overall warm- hot and humid with strong ridgee/heat west, Atlantic ridge nudging into the EC,  stronger heat from the WC into the EC latr in the month.

 

7/9  - 7/10 : Humid/ Hot slight storm chances
7/11  - 7/13:  Humid, Warm-hot , increased rain/storm chnces - could b drenchers
7/14 - 7/16 : Hot - stronger heat potential
7/17 - beyond : Overall warm - hot

 

[SACRUS]

 

Tropical flow still capable and likely to have storms and heavy rains.

 

[winterwarlock]

8 hours ago, SACRUS said:

For which site? and do you want to see  90 degree days thru jul 8th?

yeah a chart of 90 degree days up to July 8 so far...I think I had 15 but I have to go back and check. Curious to what some of those hot summers like 2002, 2022, 1999 had

[qg_omega]

33 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Tropical flow still capable and likely to have storms and heavy rains.

 

Separate storm now on Saturday, no rain from beryl 

[MANDA]

6 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Separate storm now on Saturday, no rain from beryl 

Beryl remnants were never going to give us much of anything. 

[psv88]

Low of 74 and no 60s likely for at least a week. We’re in the meat of summer now 

[SACRUS]

Up to a (similar to yesterday)  84 / 71

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, winterwarlock said:

yeah a chart of 90 degree days up to July 8 so far...I think I had 15 but I have to go back and check. Curious to what some of those hot summers like 2002, 2022, 1999 had

 

Will run but the key is 30 by end of July to get to the high season totals  (2010, 1993, 1988, 2022, 1991, etc) .  EWR is at 16, Nw Brnswck 13

[Stormlover74]

Looks like early Thursday morning is our first shot at any rain/storms

[SACRUS]

 

87 / 74

 

EWR: 86
NYC: 86

[bluewave]

Newark is currently in 5th place for most 90° days by by July 8th at 16 days. The average number of 90° days last decade is 33. So Newark is probably on track for 40+ days this year. The only thing which could get in the way of reaching closer to 50 would be a shift to a much wetter pattern like in 2021.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending most 90° days by July 8th and seasonal total

2010-07-08….21…54

1991-07-08 ….19…41

2021-07-08 ….18…41

1986-07-08 ….18…22 

2022-07-08 …17…49

2024-07-08 …16 ?

2012-07-08…..16…33

1994-07-08 ....16…39

1993-07-08 …16….49 

1987-07-08 …16 …37

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Low of 74 and no 60s likely for at least a week. We’re in the meat of summer now 

 

With enough rain Fri / Sat AM - it could drop into the 60s one or each of those days.

[SACRUS]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Newark is currently in 5th place for most 90° days by by July 8th at 16 days. The average number of 90° days last decade is 33. So Newark is probably on track for 40+ days this year. The only thing which could get in the way of reaching closer to 50 would be a shift to a much wetter pattern like in 2021.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending most 90° days by July 8th and seasonal total

2010-07-08….21 54

1991-07-08 ….19 41

2021-07-08 ….18 41

1986-07-08 ….18 22 

2022-07-08 …17 49

2024-07-08 …16 ?

2012-07-08 16…33

1994-07-08 ..16 39

1993-07-08 …16 49 

1987-07-08 …16 37

 

Thanks, BW saved a bunch of number crunching.  86 with the quick start and drop off.   Where does 88/66, fit musy be 9 and 10.   2002 was a late Jul/Aug run.

[SACRUS]

 

The fog along the beaches at the Jersey shore and looks like the south shore of LI was as dense as can be  Sun night and Mon night, and at points during the day.  Burning off now but still low visibility and thick fog/mist.

 

[forkyfork]

34 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Thanks, BW saved a bunch of number crunching.  86 with the quick start and drop off.   Where does 88/66, fit musy be 9 and 10.   2002 was a late Jul/Aug run.

will be tied for 4th any minute

[SACRUS]

 

89 / 74 here

 

EWR: 89
NYC: 88