June 2024

[IrishRob17]

And just like that it's humid again. 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

This will be the way it plays out 

Man I hope not. As you said we really need the rain. To me the timing of the front tomorrow doesn't look so early that we have to worry about the storms forming too late for our area, but I know there have been some model runs showing the storms forming to the south and east. I hope we don't get screwed. 

[psv88]

Crazy winds right now. 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah I like tomorrow just hoping the line forms west enough to hit us. I have an afternoon outdoor party that starts at 3. Incidentally last year the same party had a major storm blow though towards the end

Hopefully we can make that 2 years in a row of your party being interrupted, although I'm sure part of you doesn't want that to happen. Nice to see storms, but bad timing to have it happen during an event. 

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We are back to the rain on weekends theme since March 1st after a brief break.

Are we? Nice day on south shore, was close driving from Westchester until sunrise.  Noticeable shift in yellow grass close to the water 

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Hopefully we can make that 2 years in a row of your party being interrupted, although I'm sure part of you doesn't want that to happen. Nice to see storms, but bad timing to have it happen during an event. 

Last year we all took cover in the garage and then moved into the house when the rain didn't let up so they'd probably do the same 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, qg_omega said:

Are we? Nice day on south shore, was close driving from Westchester until sunrise

We only need a trace by tomorrow night to qualify 

[IrishRob17]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

We only need a trace by tomorrow night to qualify 

I had a trace this morning. 

[psv88]

Winds gusting to 35 at Farmingdale. That wasn’t expected 

[IrishRob17]

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Winds gusting to 35 at Farmingdale. That wasn’t expected 

Yeah, Upton has 30mph there in the hourly forecast. 

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Yeah, has 30mph there in the hourly forecast. 

Difference between 35 and 30 for a boater is a lot 

[IrishRob17]

12 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Difference between 35 and 30 for a boater is a lot 

The last time I was on a boat on the ocean I could've used some wind...my uncle was letting my 7 and 8 year old sons at the time steer the boat in circles at slow speeds as I sat in the back rather hungover. Well the fumes of the exhaust, which was not getting blown away fast enough for me, and going in circles in the hot sun was enough for me to add some chum to the water. Some decent gusts up here in the "highlands" that are making it a bit more tolerable for someone like me who would love all of summer to be like yesterday. 

[psv88]

6 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

The last time I was on a boat on the ocean I could've used some wind...my uncle was letting my 7 and 8 year old sons at the time steer the boat in circles at slow speeds as I sat in the back rather hungover. Well the fumes of the exhaust, which was not getting blown away fast enough for me, and going in circles in the hot sun was enough for me to add some chum to the water. Some decent gusts up here in the "highlands" that are making it a bit more tolerable for someone like me who would love all of summer to be like yesterday. 

Haha. You’re better off in the highlands then 

[Stormlover74]

Tornado watch for central and western pa

[rclab]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

The last time I was on a boat on the ocean I could've used some wind...my uncle was letting my 7 and 8 year old sons at the time steer the boat in circles at slow speeds as I sat in the back rather hungover. Well the fumes of the exhaust, which was not getting blown away fast enough for me, and going in circles in the hot sun was enough for me to add some chum to the water. Some decent gusts up here in the "highlands" that are making it a bit more tolerable for someone like me who would love all of summer to be like yesterday. 

Rob, the only place I was hung over was the rail. My cast plastic stomach insisted on it. Most times the little white D pill didn’t work. Some kindly boating vets advised me to stick to the bays, when feeling queasy focus on the unmoving shore line and/or try to catch a wave spray in the face. Probably needed a less sensitive inner ear. Stay well, as always …. 

[IrishRob17]

5 minutes ago, rclab said:

Rob, the only place I was hung over was the rail. My cast plastic stomach insisted on it. Most times the little white D pill didn’t work. Some kindly boating vets advised me to stick to the bays, when feeling queasy focus on the unmoving shore line and/or try to catch a wave spray in the face. Probably needed a less sensitive inner ear. Stay well, as always …. 

Twas the excess of alcohol the night before that was the true culprit. Nonetheless while I do like the beach if I had to choose I'd  take the mountains over the beach. 
 

79/71 here with the breeze, looks like I may get clipped by some showers in an hour or two. 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Are we? Nice day on south shore, was close driving from Westchester until sunrise.  Noticeable shift in yellow grass close to the water 

At least some measurable rainfall which was the case going back to March 1st. 

[IrishRob17]

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

At least some measurable rainfall which was the case going back to March 1st. 

Another trace here in the last hour. 

[Tatamy]

Strong / Severe Thunderstorms on the move in central PA.  Looks to be approaching the Delaware River around 7 PM.

[Allsnow]

Tornado warning central Pa 

[Allsnow]

Game on tomorrow? KPHL is all in 

[Stormlover74]

53 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Tornado warning central Pa 

Nice bow echo along 78 with 70 mph winds

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and very warm with some showers and thunderstorms. The potential exists for some strong or severe thunderstorms. Another cooler air mass will overspread the region tomorrow night. July will then get off to a pleasant start, but the month looks warmer to much warmer than normal overall.

Following New York City's 4th warmest spring and Philadelphia's 6th warmest spring, it is very likely that June 2024 will rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record in both cities. Records go back to 1869 in New York City and 1874 in Philadelphia.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.3°C for the week centered around June 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall.

The SOI was +26.01 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.176 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.3° (3.3° above normal). That would make June 2024 the third warmest June on record.

 

[Allsnow]

17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nice bow echo along 78 with 70 mph winds

Would think we get some rain from that line 

[Tatamy]

17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nice bow echo along 78 with 70 mph winds

This feature is coming straight at me.  We’ll see if it outdoes the one from a couple of days ago.

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Would think we get some rain from that line 

Maybe. Hrrr weakens it

[WestBabylonWeather]

Appears a line of storms coming in sooner than expected provided it holds together. I’m hoping it falls apart I want to chill on the deck 

[lee59]

75 degrees here and winds gusting to 30mph.

[Tatamy]

This is what the leading edge of that bow echo looks like as of a few minutes ago at exit 40 on I78.  The traffic cam was shaking like crazy.  It’s like a wall of rain.

[Allsnow]

37 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Maybe. Hrrr weakens it

Areas affected...Southeast PA...NJ...far northern MD/DE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484...

Valid 292238Z - 300015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484 continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to localized severe wind gusts from 50-65 mph will remain possible, mainly focused across southeast Pennsylvania and adjacent states. How far downstream this extends east of the Delaware Valley is uncertain, with forecast expectation of weakening farther east into New Jersey.

DISCUSSION...A surging accelerated portion of a short-line segment has bowed across a part of east-central to southeast Pennsylvania. Its current eastward track will result in movement into a more weakly unstable air mass. But given its organization, a damaging wind threat will probably spread east of WW 484 into NJ before diminishing. Meanwhile, supercell structure exists within the tail-end robust updraft in south-central PA. With a plume of low 90s surface temperatures emanating north over central MD, it is plausible the lagging portion of the convective line may undergo a similar acceleration and bowing surge. This could potentially impact parts of far northern MD/DE, adjacent to WWs 482/484.