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5/6-5/9 Severe Threats


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So there has been a consistent signal of severe weather for various portions of the subforum next week. 

Right now, Wednesday looks to be the day but Monday-thursday all show some potential. With multiple waves, it is going to be a complicated week. 

The only thing that we know at this point is that there will be more the sufficient upper level flow over a very favorable parameter space. 

Selected sounding is from west central ohio on wednesday. 

 

If this thread is premature, feel free to delete it. 

2024050300_GFS_144_40.07,-84.52_severe_ml.png

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Day 4/5/6 outlooks posted below >

day 4 looks like it will be affecting some of the same areas that got hit fairly hard over the last week. I would expect the day 6 outlook to shift NE a lot, especially based off of the 12z GFS, but the euro is a lot less bullish. Either way, looking forward to an active pattern with storms to track

 

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I think Tuesday could be a classic Illinois Indiana day. Impressive jet stream punches in aloft. LLJ goes Plains nuts over in the Midwest. And that warm sector CAPE!

Wednesday looks pretty good too. Maybe the SPC thinks boundaries are going to push the warm sector back into the Mid South. I'd much prefer things stay up in IL/IN/OH and they may if a major MCC doesn't wash out everything Tuesday night. 

Thursday could actually end up in the Ohio Valley or Tennessee Valley, neither of which is acceptable chase territory, though the latter is close to home. If Tue/Wed satisfy, I won't care about Thursday terrain.

Oh yeah I can't make it to the Plains for Monday, so figure I'll post here in Lakes Ohio Valley.

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Tuesday is now coming into range of the nam. Looks like a stout MCS forms in the evening on Monday and rapidly moves east. Based on trends, I expect illinois to be rain free by 15z Tuesday. Also seems like a faster solution is more likely pushing the threat further east on Tuesday. 

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18z euro is a little bit more amplified and a little slower. 

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1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

don't get ahead of yourself...

I definitely got ahead of myself. Runs today have significantly downtrended the northern end of the threat. 

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Tuesday looks like the convectively enhanced outflow boundary gets down toward southern Illinois. It could stay farther north in Indiana or lift north there with greater LLJ help. At any rate 500 mb flow will be robust and with a shortwave coming around 00Z after the morning one departs. It'll probably convect late afternoon. Boundary intersection between lifting outflow and synoptic front or pre-frontal trough will be the area of interest. CAPE lurks ready to recover north with the said boundary intersection.

Wednesday now looks like it may have the greater kinematics. Still robust 500 mph flow, with greater LLJ. The more true short-wave at 500 mb should promote a surface low response. Key is for the strength of the system to keep boundaries north of the Ohio River. North of I-64 would be preferred. Wednesday severe wx could stretch all the way from Texas to Ohio. I feel like we were just talking about this. Oh yeah the eclipse! Anyway Wednesday will probably be most interesting just east of the surface low. Placement is TBD after prior convection.

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3 hours ago, largetornado said:

day2otlk_0600.gif

Slight risk for D2. Little surprising 

yeah really thought they'd go enhanced for tomorrow, especially because it looks a bit more potent than wednesday

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Yes I agree with Tuesday 10% centered around Dayton, straddles IN/OH border. From what I recall driving to Detroit, that's quite chasable territory. LLJ is forecast to be roaring into the vicinity. Right Rear/Entrance of jet streak should promote lift. The morning stuff is going to be on the Left Front/Exit. Right entrance is sometimes fickle, but an excellent boundary will sit underneath it. Tuesday looks like a classic outflow re-generation day.

Then on Wednesday it could be anywhere with the rain enhanced boundary sinking south. Unfortunately, it looks like it could be Kentucky which isn't great chase terrain. Though some open ag spots are available. Wednesday could also go berserk the northern half of the Mid-South MO/IL, but that's touch and go terrain. I'm not sure how one would position after Tuesday. Probably depends on how Tuesday goes, to position for Wednesday.

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24 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Yes I agree with Tuesday 10% centered around Dayton, straddles IN/OH border. From what I recall driving to Detroit, that's quite chasable territory. LLJ is forecast to be roaring into the vicinity. Right Rear/Entrance of jet streak should promote lift. The morning stuff is going to be on the Left Front/Exit. Right entrance is sometimes fickle, but an excellent boundary will sit underneath it. Tuesday looks like a classic outflow re-generation day.

Then on Wednesday it could be anywhere with the rain enhanced boundary sinking south. Unfortunately, it looks like it could be Kentucky which isn't great chase terrain. Though some open ag spots are available. Wednesday could also go berserk the northern half of the Mid-South MO/IL, but that's touch and go terrain. I'm not sure how one would position after Tuesday. Probably depends on how Tuesday goes, to position for Wednesday.

Agreed. NW Ohio/rural SE Michigan and NE Indiana is very similar to Oklahoma, especially NW Ohio

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9 hours ago, nvck said:

yeah really thought they'd go enhanced for tomorrow, especially because it looks a bit more potent than wednesday

Wednesday has a much higher ceiling than tomorrow.

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1 hour ago, nwohweather said:

Agreed. NW Ohio/rural SE Michigan and NE Indiana is very similar to Oklahoma, especially NW Ohio

TDAY is down until further notice. Anyone chasing in that area will be critical to the early warning process as the lowest WSD88 beam is 5-7k ft in parts of Ohio. 

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The good news for those of us in Northeast Ohio is that the models seem to show a dramatic decrease in storm intensity, coverage and even lightning by the time it makes it all the way here in the east. Nevertheless, it sure seems like Indiana and potentially parts of Western Ohio could get a smack before night-time cooldown decreases the storm intensity.

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Hi.

Looks perfect for this old retired guy to go on a back yard chase. As I get older, I am shying away from driving for hours. A small target area with ideal chasing terrain, as @nwohweather alluded to, and a familiarity with the road network makes this a go for me.

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While this isn't looking like a huge severe event locally, I'm happy to be seemingly reeling in another day of multiple rounds of storms.  My heart of hearts would love to go chasing tomorrow but I'm extremely wary of any chase to the east of home because I despise that moment of realization when you consider that every minute you stay in pursuit becomes another minute you're going to spend driving back. I love driving, but what really seals the deal is my car doesn't have functioning cruise control atm (from when I had to replace the ignition cylinder back in November and I broke some pins on the module connecting everything under the steering column), and I'm not about to make myself have to drive six hours back from NW Ohio in the dark without CC. 

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17 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

If we somehow outperform the OK event that would be something

The daytime portion definitely busted. The nighttime portion still has time but we will see.

 

Ohio warm fronts are bad news. 

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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1210 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO
   VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Ohio Valley
   today. A few tornadoes, potentially strong, large to very large
   hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear possible.

   ...Ohio Valley...

   Plains upper trough will eject northeast across the mid/upper MS
   Valley early in the period as 80+kt 500mb speed max translates from
   northern OK into western IL by 18z, then into extreme southwest MI
   by early evening. Primary corridor of mid-level height falls will
   spread north of this jet, though 30-60m, 12hr falls are expected as
   far south as I-70 across IN/OH during the expected convective cycle.
   In response to this short wave, southwesterly LLJ will shift into
   IL/IN by 18z, then into the mid OH Valley by late afternoon. This
   evolution will encourage considerable moistening early in the period
   and buoyancy will increase markedly by mid day within a strongly
   sheared, but deep southwesterly flow regime.

   Current thinking is ongoing convection, associated with this trough,
   will propagate into the mid MS Valley by daybreak, then advance
   downstream with some propensity for weakening during the morning.
   However, boundary-layer heating after this initial activity will
   result in a modest-strongly unstable air mass by early afternoon.
   Convective temperatures will be easily breached as readings warm
   through the 70s to near 80F, and isolated-scattered thunderstorms
   should evolve along the southern fringe of the main jet core.
   Forecast soundings across the OH Valley exhibit favorable
   shear/buoyancy for supercells, especially given the steep lapse
   rates. Storms that evolve within this environment will likely remain
   discrete, or perhaps evolve into some clusters. Tornadoes, a few
   strong, are possible along with very large hail. Some damaging winds are also possible.
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Ready 2 b shelved

One of the memorable shelf clouds I saw was in Schaumburg 10 years ago that rolled in the morning also. I wasn’t expecting it walking outside lol. Was in awe.
 

Looked like a long ufo. Dark front with glacierish teal hues behind it etc. 

 

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