Severe Weather 5-6 through 5-9-24

[pbrussell]

God, that dominant supercell is heading right toward none other than Moore isn’t it 

[Powerball]

1 hour ago, Powerball said:

Up until this point, there's been nothing to force convective development south of I-40

That said, I would still keep an eye out on the Lawton and Wichita Falls area for more discrete development over the next couple of hours, especially with the actual jet streak moving in.

NWS Norman seems to be on a similar wavelength, because they're now thinking the best timing for severe weather in OKC and southward is between 11pm and 1am.

And, per my post, the radar in SW OK has since blown up. These are the cells that could cause problems for OKC down to the Red River soon.

Some were a bit too quick to write off this area.

[canderson]

I’m real worried about Norman to OKC, including Moore. 

[Sydney Claridge]

10 minutes ago, canderson said:

I’m real worried about Norman to OKC, including Moore. 

Me too.

There's nothing too concerning on that storm around Gracemont and Binger just yet, but it wouldn't take much at all for that to change.

[WxWatcher007]

 

[andyhb]

That is a terrifying image.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

The OKC supercell turned into a line instead

[Quincy]

Just got home to Moore… but a very quick chase recap:

Had a late departure from OKC at 4pm, but made it to NW Oklahoma as supercells were beginning to mature. I chased the northern OK supercell west of Enid for a while, but it just couldn’t wrap up.

I then went south for a more intense supercell. It went tornado warned and produced a lot of lightning. 

It had a donut whole presentation on radar at one point, but I kept a distance due to the extreme chaser convergence and traffic. I watched the storm in a field near Marshall. Once it passed by, I had to call the chase off. There was gridlock eastbound toward I-35. 

I made it all the way to El Reno for the tail and supercell. It briefly looked like it might produce, but once I felt cool outflow surging, I bailed back to Moore. 

There’s a supercell approaching from the west, but I’m not particularly concerned, based on radar presentation.

I haven’t read this thread since midday, but I’m assuming there was talk about the setup “underperforming.” I have to give the 3km NAM credit for having a pretty solid handle on convective evolution. It suggested that storms would tend to go linear. 

It also appeared that upper level winds were slightly more southerly than westerly, leading to storm mergers and linear transition. The more westerly flow is impinging on the unstable environment now, it was, perhaps, just a tiny bit too late to contribute to more discrete supercells.

Also, the low level lapse rates from OUN seemed to verify closer to the lower NAM progs, which were probably a limiting factor. They heavily contributed to the underperforming nature of the last central Oklahoma high risk. Even 00z only “recovered” to 6.2 C/km. Marginally favorable at best. 

Anyway, I’m not saying the setup was a bust, but there are reasons why the highest ceiling wasn’t met. 

A few rogue supercells did evolve and embedded supercells continue to sustain a tornado threat, at least for the next couple of hours. 

[canderson]

5 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

The OKC supercell turned into a line instead

And actually weakening a bit as it moves east. I’m out (but glad it did this) 

[Sydney Claridge]

7 minutes ago, canderson said:

And actually weakening a bit as it moves east. I’m out (but glad it did this) 

It just escalated. Severe thunderstorm warning with a destructive damage threat tag now out for the Moore area, with 80 MPH wind gusts possible.

[WxWatcher007]

PDS severe thunderstorm warning for the cell near Norman?

[Quincy]

11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

PDS severe thunderstorm warning for the cell near Norman?

Right over my house. I’ll report back if we see anything noteworthy. Looks outflow dominant. 

Update: Saw several power flashes to the west (from Moore), strong wind gusts, maybe to 50 mph, small hail and lots of lightning, but that’s about it. 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

TOR for OKC

[canderson]

Well shit. That exploded at the exact wrong spot. 

[WxWatcher007]

A number of tornado warnings in Missouri right now as well

[WxWatcher007]

OKC ASOS gusted to 69mph. Just outside of the PDS severe warning.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=Kokc#

[the_other_guy]

Taken from 34,000 feet this afternoon

[Stx_Thunder]

4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

PDS severe thunderstorm warning for the cell near Norman?

80 mph wind gusts would be the reason if so when I read that warning. Which is considered destructive thunderstorm damage.

I don’t remember if I’ve ever seen a PDS severe thunderstorm warning. But do remember seeing a PDS severe thunderstorm watch on SPC a few years ago (which I also never thought existed and is rare).

[CheeselandSkies]

3 hours ago, Stx_Thunder said:

80 mph wind gusts would be the reason if so when I read that warning. Which is considered destructive thunderstorm damage.

I don’t remember if I’ve ever seen a PDS thunderstorm warning. But do remember seeing a PDS thunderstorm watch on SPC a few years ago (which I also never thought existed and is rare).

It is rather rare. Only used when an abnormally significant derecho (such as 8/10/20) appears imminent and the tornado threat is relatively low enough to not warrant a tornado watch.

[Akeem the African Dream]

11 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

high risk bust?

not seeing any damage that is more than Ef-1 

[A-L-E-K]

bust for sure

[Eskimo Joe]

It appears the door is through the tree, not behind it.

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

38 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It appears the door is through the tree, not behind it.

 

 

I would like to see a side angle of that. That view is not conclusive, very possible it’s propped up behind the tree. TWC and major news outlets have been caught in the past staging/propping up debris to make the scene appear for catastrophic.

[Witness Protection Program]

38 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

That's the east side of the river, including 2nd St @ Wrangler Heights.  Both these houses were leveled:

https://www.google.com/maps/@36.5601045,-96.1527161,3a,75y,282.23h,83.21t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sP4I7JOdB3pNlXvzdOtlO6A!2e0!7i16384!8i8192?coh=205409&entry=ttu

  

[Powerball]

To address the point of whether yesterday was a bust, per the SPC, the expectation would be for 20+ more tornado reports *AND/OR* a derecho with widespread winds of 80+ MPH.

Source:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/prob_cat_mar22.html

So technically, once all of the reports are confirmed (there's only 7 so far), this event will likelly end up falling short.

But the pedantry of whether yesterday was a bust aside, from a real world standpoint, it doesn't matter. Possibly multiple lives have been lost and at least one town has been destroyed. Plus, there were over 300 severe weather reports in total yesterday, which is impressive in any setup.

[Tezeta]

Glad it busted. That coulda been so bad for a lot more people and areas. 

[nwohweather]

20 minutes ago, Powerball said:

To address the point of whether yesterday was a bust, per the SPC, the expectation would be for 20+ more tornado reports *AND/OR* a derecho with widespread winds of 80+ MPH.

Source:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/prob_cat_mar22.html

So technically, once all of the reports are confirmed (there's only 7 so far), this event will likelly end up falling short.

But the pedantry of whether yesterday was a bust aside, from a real world standpoint, it doesn't matter. Possibly multiple lives have been lost and at least one town has been destroyed. Plus, there were over 300 severe weather reports in total yesterday, which is impressive in any setup.

I'm glad someone brought this up. I can't hate on the High risk because it was a very small area that had it. Moderate would have been fine but we did get a truly violent tornado that was long tracked.

[Eskimo Joe]

28 minutes ago, Powerball said:

To address the point of whether yesterday was a bust, per the SPC, the expectation would be for 20+ more tornado reports *AND/OR* a derecho with widespread winds of 80+ MPH.

Source:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/prob_cat_mar22.html

So technically, once all of the reports are confirmed (there's only 7 so far), this event will likelly end up falling short.

But the pedantry of whether yesterday was a bust aside, from a real world standpoint, it doesn't matter. Possibly multiple lives have been lost and at least one town has been destroyed. Plus, there were over 300 severe weather reports in total yesterday, which is impressive in any setup.

We do this every time. The damage assessment, debris management, and storm assessments will take days. Give it a week before calling bust. 

As a reference, the April 27, 2011 outbreak only had 5 confirmed tornadoes the next day. It took a month to compile the information and enter the reports.

[Tezeta]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We do this every time. The damage assessment, debris management, and storm assessments will take days. Give it a week before calling bust. 

As a reference, the April 27, 2011 outbreak only had 5 confirmed tornadoes the next day. It took a month to compile the information and enter the reports.

Cmon dude this wasn’t like 4/27/11 so no need to enter that into the conversation.

the qlcs regime overperformed in Missouri and Iowa and the barnsdell cell obviously went ham. But the main high risk had problems performing all day. A moderate woulda been fine.