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May 2024 General Discussion


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Ended up with garden variety storms with 0.6" of rain.   Watching radar you could definitely see the stronger convection struggling to get north of 96 by Howell. 

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13 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

open to east arguments fwiw, feels like we've had more dry line appearances than i'm used to lately, couldn't just be persistent plains drought though

 

There's definitely some empirical evidence to support a eastward shift (towards Dixie Alley) over the past few decades

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5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

brutal

Yeah... Living near the shore of Superior in the Spring is nothing to brag about but come mid June through early Sept it's endless days of sun, 70's, low humidity and cool, crisp nights.  Then, when everyone's sick of Summer and complaining about the heat and humidity, it's Autumn here, so it's worth it.

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https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/swpc-issues-its-first-g4-watch-2005
 

If we can clear out early Friday night might see a couple times in a lifetime level northern lights here. Saturday night looks better for clear skies but not sure if there’ll be any aurora then. The 5-10% chance of a Carrington event redux over the next 24-36 hours or so is pretty wild also. 

IMG_4726.png

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8 hours ago, luckyweather said:

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/swpc-issues-its-first-g4-watch-2005
 

If we can clear out early Friday night might see a couple times in a lifetime level northern lights here. Saturday night looks better for clear skies but not sure if there’ll be any aurora then. The 5-10% chance of a Carrington event redux over the next 24-36 hours or so is pretty wild also. 

IMG_4726.png

That sunspot is a beast. 5 CMEs in the past few days. The next couple days can’t go fast enough so it turns out of our direction. July 2012 we missed a massive almost carrington style solar flare missed earth by 3 days

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2 hours ago, SolidIcewx said:

That sunspot is a beast. 5 CMEs in the past few days. The next couple days can’t go fast enough so it turns out of our direction. July 2012 we missed a massive almost carrington style solar flare missed earth by 3 days

Regardless, the grid is going down at some point soon, by hook or by crook. Hope all my weather friends have fresh water, canned food, candles, batteries, and God. 
 

Goodluck friend . 

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7 hours ago, SolidIcewx said:

That sunspot is a beast. 5 CMEs in the past few days. The next couple days can’t go fast enough so it turns out of our direction. July 2012 we missed a massive almost carrington style solar flare missed earth by 3 days

Yeah, it looks like some of the first CME's are going to combine as they hit us, with more behind allowing for an extended event with auroras this weekend. Forecast looks decent, so should be clear enough around here tonight. Looks like I might have to pull an all-nighter. I don't have a smartphone, but I do have a digital camera, so will try and get some pics. I think it has video, too, but never have used that function. Might try that, too.

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4 hours ago, King James said:

Regardless, the grid is going down at some point soon, by hook or by crook. Hope all my weather friends have fresh water, canned food, candles, batteries, and God. 
 

Goodluck friend . 

Grid instability is a possibility with this event. I've seen aurora cover 2/3 of the sky around here when I was younger, and different colors from green, red, and even purple. The lights stayed on then, but you never know. They're just giving estimates on strength of hits, and some have fizzled, and others were a total surprise. If you start having higher end X-flares with halo CME's that start combining, then we are in big trouble. Start brushing up on your Mad Max movies. :lol:

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Temps chilly this morning with 28 at the TH arpt, and 32 in town. Frost warnings this morning here, with freeze warnings over N WI. NWS DLH just started issuing these statements up here on May 7, as growing season starts.

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2 hours ago, Brian D said:

Yeah, it looks like some of the first CME's are going to combine as they hit us, with more behind allowing for an extended event with auroras this weekend. Forecast looks decent, so should be clear enough around here tonight. Looks like I might have to pull an all-nighter. I don't have a smartphone, but I do have a digital camera, so will try and get some pics. I think it has video, too, but never have used that function. Might try that, too.

G4 geomagnetic storm ongoing right now. Hope some of us can get some pics to post

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Will be headed up to NW. Illinois after work later for the Northern Lights, if things are still looking good.

That area will have the best combination of the least amount of light pollution and earliest exit of clouds.

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