May 2024

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Not yesterday?

No

[MJO812]

52 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

He was still wearing his winter coat. 

That's nycsnow

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That's nycsnow

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Not really seeing how we can get any heat into the NYC Metro Region with a pattern like this. 

WX/PT

[MJO812]

52 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Not really seeing how we can get any heat into the NYC Metro Region with a pattern like this. 

WX/PT

Lovely

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Not really seeing how we can get any heat into the NYC Metro Region with a pattern like this. 

WX/PT

not through jun 8 as it looks from this view from phl north perhaps even bwi

[SACRUS]

 

80 and a wonderful day out there

[SACRUS]

 

[Stormlover74]

Euro says screw your memorial day plans

[Rtd208]

17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro says screw your memorial day plans

Just about all of the 12z models came in wetter for Memorial Day. So it looks like plenty of rain/storms. 

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Not really seeing how we can get any heat into the NYC Metro Region with a pattern like this. 

WX/PT

Yup. More back door garbage. 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be another warm day with readings topping out mainly in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Temperatures will generally remain near or somewhat above normal through the remainder of May. Rain will overspread the region on Memorial Day. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral conditions are imminent.

The SOI was +1.17 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.772 today.

On May 23 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.719 (RMM). The May 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.691 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 65.1° (1.9° above normal).

 

[Jersey Andrew]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will be another warm day with readings topping out mainly in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Temperatures will generally remain near or somewhat above normal through the remainder of May. Rain will overspread the region on Memorial Day. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral conditions are imminent.

The SOI was +1.17 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.772 today.

On May 23 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.719 (RMM). The May 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.691 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 65.1° (1.9° above normal).

 

Don, any thoughts on the Mid Atlantic and Northeast susceptibility to hurricanes this year?

[Stormlover74]

Looking like some showers will roll through after 9 or 10 pm if they survive

[Wxoutlooksblog]

5 hours ago, SACRUS said:

not through jun 8 as it looks from this view from phl north perhaps even bwi

I'd say any heat in the northeast is very unlikely prior to June 15th with a lower than normal probability of any heat for the remainder of June. Out west, it's the reverse. They will bake.

WX/PT

[donsutherland1]

52 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Don, any thoughts on the Mid Atlantic and Northeast susceptibility to hurricanes this year?

I have some concerns for late summer/early fall if the pattern evolves as I suspect it will. 

[MJO812]

5 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro says screw your memorial day plans

My met game will most like be canceled. 

[MJO812]

5 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Just about all of the 12z models came in wetter for Memorial Day. So it looks like plenty of rain/storms. 

Looks like late afternoon deal

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Looking like some showers will roll through after 9 or 10 pm if they survive

This drying up I guess 

[SACRUS]

 

Highs;

 

PHL: 88
TTN: 85
ACY: 84
EWR: 81
NYC: 81
TEB: 81
New Brnswck: 80
LGA: 80
JFK: 77
BLM: 76
ISP: 74

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 93 (1991)
NYC: 95 (1880)
LGA: 95 (2007)
JFK: 91 (1991)

Lows:

EWR:  42 (1956)
NYC:  41 (1925)
LGA: 44 (1967)
JFK: 41 (1967)

Historical:

 

1896: An estimated F5 tornado hit Oakwood, Ortonville, and Thomas, Michigan. Forty-seven people were killed, and 100 were injured. Trees were debarked "even to the twigs, as though done by the careful hand of an experienced artisan." Parts of houses were found up to 12 miles away.

1917 - A tornado ripped through southeast Kansas, traveling 65 mph. The average speed was a record for any tornado. (The Weather Channel)

1955 - Two tornadoes struck the town of Blackwell, OK, within a few minutes time during the late evening. The tornadoes killed 18 persons and injured more than 500 others. Early the next morning a tornado virtually obliterated the small community of Udall KS killing 80 persons and injuring 270 persons. More than half the persons in the community were killed or injured by the tornado. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1975: On Raccoon Lake, Indiana, lightning struck the motor of a speedboat and traveled up the control wires, killing the driver. The 38-year-old man was knocked into the water by the bolt. His wife and two children, also in the boat, were not injured.

1987 - Thunderstorms spawned fifteen tornadoes in West Texas. One thunderstorm spawned a powerful tornado near Gruver, TX, along with golf ball size hail and 75 mph winds. A man on a boat on Lake Bistineau in northwest Louisiana was struck and killed by lightning, while the other three persons in the boat were unharmed. The man reportedly stood up in the boat and asked to be struck by lightning. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Unseasonably cool weather prevailed in the Upper Midwest. Marquette, MI, reported a record low of 26 degrees. Thunderstorms in the north central U.S. produced wind gusts to 62 mph at Idaho Falls, ID, and produced 4 inches of rain in less than four hours in northern Buffalo County. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a strong cold front produced severe weather from Oklahoma to Ohio through the day and night. Thunderstorms spawned nine tornadoes, and there were 155 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Hail three and a half inches in diameter was reported at Dittmer, MO, and thunderstorm winds gusting to 90 MPH caused twenty million dollars damage at Rockville IN. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Evening thunderstorms spawned four tornadoes in Kansas and Missouri, and there were three dozen reports of large hail or damaging winds. Thunderstorms produced hail two inches in diameter at Cole Camp, and wind gusts to 72 mph at Rosebud. Heavy thunderstorm rains produced flash flooding in central Missouri. Flood waters swept through Washington State Park southwest of Saint Louis, and nearly one hundred persons had to be rescued from water as much as twenty feet deep. The flood waters swept away a number of vehicles, some were carried as much as four miles away. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2008: A rare, large and destructive EF5 tornado created a 43-mile long path across Butler and Black Hawk counties in Iowa. This tornado killed eight people, injured dozens and caused several millions of dollars in damage. The tornado was nearly three-quarters of a mile wide as it moved through the southern end of Parkersburg. A third of the town was affected by devastating damage with nearly 200 homes destroyed. This storm produced the first EF5 tornado in Iowa since 6/13/1976 and only the third EF5 tornado to occur in the United States in the past ten years.

 

 

[Stormlover74]

54 minutes ago, FPizz said:

This drying up I guess 

A few isolated cells have popped up over somerset

[SACRUS]

[Stormlover74]

Pouring now with a bit of thunder and lightning

[winterwx21]

45 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Pouring now with a bit of thunder and lightning

Had a weak t-storm here that dropped a tenth of an inch of rain. At least it held off until after cookout time, as expected. Definitely a little more than what I was expecting though. The rain coming in from PA is falling apart as expected, but it was a bit of a surprise that these cells popped up. 

[SRRTA22]

2 hours ago, FPizz said:

This drying up I guess 

I was surprised seeing that line around new Brunswick about an hour ago. For dews in the 40s, it seemed strong. Could see the lightning from jersey city 

[psv88]

77 today. Beautiful 

[Allsnow]

Did we get some loud thunder overnight? 

[SACRUS]

 

68 - humidity up with a DT of 67.  Cloudy with some showers into SNJ.  Overnight storms narrow strip for some, looks like EWR/NYC didnt record any rain.  Should get to partly cloudy and warm to the low / mid 80s.  Clouds back later this evening and a warm and wet Memorial Day tomorrow.   Beyond that as we close May, trough into the east, perhaps some storms  Wed evening / THu, but overall near normal to below - coolest Thu (5/30) - Fri (5/31).   Overall trough east / ridge west pattern through the 8th - signal for cut offs still persists ECM keeps it offshore.  We'll see if the similar progression has a back and forth (1-2) warm up between troughs. Heat is evasive next 2 weeks. Perhaps a window for a day or 2 between troughs.

 

  

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 96 (1965)
NYC: 95 (1880)
LGA: 94 (2010)
JFK: 91 (2010)


Lows:

EWR: 44 (1967)
NYC: 41 (1967)
LGA: 45 (1972)
JFK: 42 (1967)

Historical:

 

1771 - A famous Virginia flood occurred as heavy rains in the mountains brought all rivers in the state to record high levels. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1917 - A tornado touched down near Louisiana MO about noon and remained on the ground for a distance of 293 miles, finally lifting seven hours and twenty minutes later in eastern Jennings County, IN. The twister cut a swath of destruction two and a half miles wide through Mattoon, IL. There were 101 persons killed in the tornado, including 53 at Mattoon, and 38 at Charleston IL. Damage from the storm totalled 2.5 million dollars. (David Ludlum)

1984 - Thunderstorms during the late evening and early morning hours produced 6 to 13 inches of rain at Tulsa OK in six hours (8.63 inches at the airport). Flooding claimed fourteen lives and caused 90 million dollars property damage. 4600 cars, 743 houses, and 387 apartments were destroyed or severely damage in the flood. (Storm Data) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms in southwest Iowa spawned five tornadoes and produced up to ten inches of rain. Seven inches of rain at Red Oak forced evacuation of nearly 100 persons from the town. Record flooding took place in southwest Iowa the last twelve days of May as up to 17 inches of rain drenched the area. Total damage to crops and property was estimated at 16 million dollars. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - There was "frost on the roses" in the Upper Ohio Valley and the Central Appalachian Mountain Region. Thirteen cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Youngstown OH with a reading of 30 degrees. Evening thunderstorms in North Dakota produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Jamestown. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms in produced large hail in eastern Oklahoma during the pre-dawn hours, and again during the evening and night. Hail two inches in diameter was reported near Prague, and thunderstorm winds gusted to 70 mph near Kenefic. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from eastern Colorado to western Arkansas and northeastern Texas. Severe thunderstorms spawned three tornadoes, and there were eighty-eight reports of large hail or damaging winnds. Evening thunderstorms over central Oklahoma spawned strong tornadoes east of Hinton and east of Binger, produced hail three inches in diameter at Minco, and produced wind gusts to 85 mph at Blanchard. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)