40/70 Benchmark Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie has the snow on Friday too in SNE. Looks pretty marginal in the lowest levels in the CP, but if guidance is going to try and spit out good hourly rates, then it will be worth watching. Certainly over the interior hills it is becoming a threat. The pattern we were hoping for in February now looks to be happening in late March and early April. Still on ignore right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Well if it has to happen.. let’s get a Fir Flattener for the hills of SNE and make it a no power , white Easter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well if it has to happen.. let’s get a Fir Flattener for the hills of SNE and make it a no power , white Easter. I'm down! We already got our Morch 2012 Sr the first half of the month, lets get one more snowstorm before we torch 2nd half of April ideally, probably going to be 30s and rain though or a whiff Friday though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wonder why the west PAC warm pool only prohibits entry into phase 8-1 during the cold season....perhaps as the relatively cooler ambient waters begin to warm (cool in the fall) it loses (gains) pervasiveness throught the Hemisphere? Same pattern happened last March which gave interior New England a huge event. It’s very frustrating that we can’t line a pattern up like this in DJF 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well if it has to happen.. let’s get a Fir Flattener for the hills of SNE and make it a no power , white Easter. Let's do it! Biggest Euro run of the year about to come out .. Also some sneaky fzdz tonight into tomorrow morning interior? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Euro still a whiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wonder why the west PAC warm pool only prohibits entry into phase 8-1 during the cold season....perhaps as the relatively cooler ambient waters begin to warm (cool in the fall) it loses (gains) pervasiveness throught the Hemisphere? The other explanation is that the warmer waters didn't really have as much to do with it as hypothesized. Might be some other important factor or factors. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Just now, ORH_wxman said: The other explanation is that the warmer waters didn't really have as much to do with it as hypothesized. Might be some other important factor or factors. We had dateline forcing too for a time. I agree. I'm not as wrapped up in the west pac warm pool argument. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: I'm down! We already got our Morch 2012 Sr the first half of the month, lets get one more snowstorm before we torch in April, probably going to be 30s and rain though.. where’s the torch in April lol…you had your torch the first half of this month, now it’s long gone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Just now, WinterWolf said: where’s the torch in April lol…you had your torch the first half of this month, now it’s long gone. There is none as of now, we have to wish in into existence. Hopefully second half warms up after the cool first half 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Some of the guidance started to get milder after the first week of April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Some of the guidance started to get milder after the first week of April. EPS looked decently mild by 4/9.....but then again, the EPS has been utterly horrific this cold season, so taken with a grain of salt for now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 I haven't been altogether blown away by the west Pac warm pool stuff, either. I've sort of let that conversation go as just a passive observer. I am not sure why warmth there has more meaning than warmth in the PDO ... or AMO or the ENSO... The oceans are markedly warm, everywhere, above climo - save for pockets here and there that are proven more transient. Ex, the La Nina 'cool' phases are warmer than the La Nina cool phase baselines from 100 years ago. The El Ninos are also warmer relative to modern vs older climate generations. This has to be true, because ... it cannot be logically true when utilizing a moving/adjusted climate baseline to then have the same base temperature at either end. Crude example, say a modest cool ENSO may even be similar to a modest warm ENSO 150 years ago... The wholesale planet warms together is what this looks more like... so how we aver (much less really convincingly guess) one area as being so much forcing over others is sort of dubious to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 17 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: I'm down! We already got our Morch 2012 Sr the first half of the month, lets get one more snowstorm before we torch 2nd half of April ideally, probably going to be 30s and rain though or a whiff Friday though.. Let’s do it . 16 minutes ago, ma blizzard said: Let's do it! Biggest Euro run of the year about to come out .. Also some sneaky fzdz tonight into tomorrow morning interior? I’m sure the Euro will be right for the first time in 4 years and it’ll be OTS. Goes with the persistence forecasting that has worked so well the last 4-5 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Let’s do it . I’m sure the Euro will be right for the first time in 4 years and it’ll be OTS. Goes with the persistence forecasting that has worked so well the last 4-5 years GEFS pretty far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 How the 12Z ECMWF is fully out to 240hrs on wxbell is beyond me, doesn't seem possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: How the 12Z ECMWF is fully out to 240hrs on wxbell is beyond me, doesn't seem possible. They announced (ECMWF folks) euro op will start earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: They announced (ECMWF folks) euro op will start earlier. oh ok, i knew something had to be up. Normally it would only be out to like 24h-48hrs by now, which is exactly where pivotal is at currently. Thats good for next winter, should start coming out around 12? and be done by 1pm ish which is nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 I absolutely love that the GFS wants us to remember March 18 lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I absolutely love that the GFS wants us to remember March 18 lol All these storms in spring probably bear some likeness to one another ... but a while ago I posted a juxtaposition of the 500 mb April 1997 library/NCEP chart against the 500 mb of this morning's GFS operational just for shits and giggles - there's definitely some similarity there, though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Not sure of the significance when weighting into this particular model conflict today, but the Euro was also 'whiffy' with the last event and didn't conceded until it was 3 or 4 days out - fwiw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 16 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: How the 12Z ECMWF is fully out to 240hrs on wxbell is beyond me, doesn't seem possible. It’s also faster in finishing now. Next winter the 12z run will be completed by 1:15pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Euro has been glue factory worthy this year…it’ll cave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not sure of the significance when weighting into this particular model conflict today, but the Euro was also 'whiffy' with the last event and didn't conceded until it was 3 or 4 days out - fwiw Or in layman’s terms: 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Euro has been glue factory worthy this year…it’ll cave. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 That Storm on 4/8 needs to stay the hell away...Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Good amount of idv eps members that look like the gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Good amount of idv eps members that look like the gfs 'idv' ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: 'idv' ? Individual i took it as 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Individual i took it as oh... heh. I'm like, "I don't something -" or - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Good amount of idv eps members that look like the gfs Euro was also west of 00z. At the least it's more rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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