Snowstorms Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 41 minutes ago, bluewave said: It didn’t even take 10 years to surpass the CONUS warm record set in 15-16. Where does 2022-23 and 2016-17 stand on the rankings? Locally, 2023-24 was the warmest on record here in Toronto at YYZ. Though records at YYZ only go back to 1938, I'm positive 2023-24 is in the top 5 or top 3 if I looked at all the records that went back to 1840. Of the top 8 warmest on record at YYZ, 5 are since 2015-16 which include 2015-16, 2016-17, 2019-20, 2022-23, and 2023-24. Fucked up lol. I know you make a lot of reference to 2015-16 so I wonder if this is just a hangover from that super Nino on the globe and global oceans or has the warming simply accelerated. The amount of warmth and warm winters we've seen in the last 8 years is absurd. We saw a similar thing with the 1997-98 super Nino. From 1997-2007, we only saw 2 cold winters across the continent (2000-01 and 2002-03) and one near average (2003-04). Although we experienced the multi-year Nina (1998-2001), it may have not been enough to counter the warmth that built up from the 3 strong Nino's vs one strong Nina from 1986-1998. Until the 2007-08 strong La Nina did we enter a period of colder winters from 2007-2015 and only really experienced one warm winter (2011-12). I'm talking about all of North America not locally. I don't think the -PDO is responsible for any of the warmth. The PDO was predominately negative between 2007 and 2015 and we experienced 90% cold winters. You made a post about strong Nino's stepping up global temperatures and I think it maybe partially to blame for the recent increase in warm winters. The 2015-16 super Nino may have greatly impacted ocean temperatures enhancing the +AMO and ultimately the SER which has been on steroids since. It may have also altered the usual -PDO, as even though numbers may say otherwise, only 2020-21, and 2021-22 looked like a full fledged -PDO across the Pacific (like 2007-2015 did). One simple look at the current SST map can tell you that despite the deeply negative anomaly. One can say the same thing about the MEI values hardly cracking moderate status despite a super Nino ONI value last tri-month. Basically we need a 2007-08 or 2010-11 type of La Nina to cool the oceans down. I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 With shrinking areas of cold globally, it is little surprise that warmer months are becoming more frequent even on a local basis. Below are monthly global GISS anomalies (2000-2023) and New York City's anomalies using the GISS baseline: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 Nobody wants snow after march 1. Time for baseball, beach and boating. LFG 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 31 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nice snow event on cmc A couple of runs in a row. You never know Long way to go tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 Yea I’m sure models won’t change over the next 9 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 i would like to see more of a cutoff signature, as AN heights over Nova Scotia usually aren’t the best for late season storms. however, teleconnections aren’t quite as useful as they are in mid-Jan due to shorter wavelengths. there’s also some nice HP to the north. something to watch, but I would lower expectations given a lack of ample cold air 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: Nobody wants snow after march 1. Time for baseball, beach and boating. LFG I'll gladly take snow through mid march, but then I don't want it anymore in late march when it's time to start gardening season. I do think a rainstorm is MUCH more likely for the NYC area due to the warm pattern. Hard to get a snowstorm heading into mid march without much cold air to work with. However march can be a crazy month, so we can't completely rule it out. Wouldn't be shocking if we pull off wet snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 1 hour ago, bluewave said: It didn’t even take 10 years to surpass the CONUS warm record set in 15-16. Some of the seasonal records were demolished. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 32 minutes ago, psv88 said: Nobody wants snow after march 1. Time for baseball, beach and boating. LFG I'm fine with it. Once the sun is out the following day it melts quickly. To each their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 1 hour ago, psv88 said: Nobody wants snow after march 1. Time for baseball, beach and boating. LFG If it’s a 6”+ event I’d be interested but if it’s some slop that’s gone the next day I really couldn’t care less. This event is still 8 days away and even though the pattern does become more favorable it probably just matters for upstate NY and New England. Boston will probably find some way to make it over 10” for the winter-that’s obscenely low for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 FYI, Tropical Tidbits now posts the ECMWF's AI forecasts. It's 3/15 map screams "Beware of the Ides of March!" It's posted here for purposes of illustration only. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: FYI, Tropical Tidbits now posts the ECMWF's AI forecasts. It's 3/15 map screams "Beware of the Ides of March!" It's posted here for purposes of illustration only. 6Z run of the same model: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 1 minute ago, uofmiami said: 6Z run of the same model: Torchy in the same ol spots....road trip to Colorado? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 3 hours ago, hudsonvalley21 said: A couple of runs in a row. You never know Long way to go tho. It's still rain for metsfan on that map though 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 Just now, Rjay said: It's still rain for metsfan on that map though I'm left of that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: I'm left of that Sorry rain for you! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Sorry rain for you! That low will end up over Buffalo after the next 8 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: That low will end up over Buffalo after the next 8 days Not with the blocking 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Not with the blocking Regardless, you'll need to be inland and elevated from here on out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Regardless, you'll need to be inland and elevated from here on out... We have seen snow in March so we aren't out of the woods yet. The climo argument is bullcrap with a good pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 Just now, MJO812 said: We have seen snow in March so we aren't out of the woods yet. The climo argument is bullcrap with a good pattern. You're missing arctic air-most of the coast's biggest storms have an arctic outbreak ahead of them...even March 1998 had that. Marginal cold will cut it in Jan/Feb but not March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 An example of poor run-to-run continuity: Snowfall Forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 An extended period of warmer to much warmer than normal weather is getting underway. March will likely see generally unseasonable warmth through the first 7-10 days of the month. The generally mild conditions could persist through mid-month. As has often been the case in recent months, the most impressive warmth in absolute temperatures and relative to normal will likely occur north and west of New York City. New York City will likely finish the first week of the month with an anomaly near 10° above normal despite frequent wet weather. No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region through at least March 10th. The probability of an unprecedented second consecutive winter with less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City has increased. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around February 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.65°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring. The SOI was +0.53 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.920 today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmansascientist Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 9 Years ago, February 2015, was one of the coldest February's on record (3rd coldest in history, coldest since 1934). That also marked the last time any month was one of the lowest 10 in NYC history. In those same 9 years, starting March 2015, there have been 27 different months that have been top 10 warmest months in Central Park history, including 5 in 2015 alone. To put it in perspective a full 25% of all months since March 2015 are among the top 10 of their respective months (and 22.5% of the 120 top 10 monthly records for warmth have been set since March 2015). Thought this was interesting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 42 minutes ago, Fresh cold air said: Do neutral enso summers normally torch to a degree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 Some stations in the Northeast are over 50 to 1 top 10 warmest to coldest months since 2010. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 7 hours ago, psv88 said: Nobody wants snow after march 1. Time for baseball, beach and boating. LFG actually, I’m a skier. There’s a bunch of skiers on here and you may not want snow, but the lack of cold air up in the mountains is going to cut short a season that is very expensive. Locally ski season goes until April 1. For those of us that buy season passes we bank on skiing several times in March. More importantly, in an economically depressed state like New York, people in the Hudson Valley Catskills Adirindacks, depend on people skiing for four or five months of the year for their livelihood. there are a few other jobs up there outside of tourism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 52 minutes ago, Fresh cold air said: Oh my, according to this chart, we could be cooking this summer! I really hope not! That’s if the summer has a neutral ENSO. The CFSv2 is quite aggressive in bringing La Niña for summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 21 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: actually, I’m a skier. There’s a bunch of skiers on here and you may not want snow, but the lack of cold air up in the mountains is going to cut short a season that is very expensive. Locally ski season goes until April 1. For those of us that buy season passes we bank on skiing several times in March. More importantly, in an economically depressed state like New York, people in the Hudson Valley Catskills Adirindacks, depend on people skiing for four or five months of the year for their livelihood. there are a few other jobs up there outside of tourism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Some stations in the Northeast are over 50 to 1 top 10 warmest to coldest months since 2010. For New York City: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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