2024-2025 La Nina

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Does it matter that much exactly what month the peak is determined to have occurred (which I’d think would have to be after the fact, regardless) if the peak is indeed going to end up occuring in early 2025?

That is true, we won’t know when the solar peak occurred until after it already happened. Early 2025 is just an educated guess by the experts right now 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark I wonder if this ends up being more of a factor than people, including myself were thinking with the Atlantic hurricane season? Could it possibly cause all the record tropical season forecasts to bust IF it continues?

 

 

 

 

Too early for MDR activation anyway.   Some of that may be changing associated with CC ... not getting into that. By and large, the first week of June is more typically "home grown" so to speak, which covers the western Caribbean, GOM and adjacent of Florida on the Atl side.

[Typhoon Tip]

On 6/1/2024 at 11:26 AM, bluewave said:

Yeah, right in cue the ridge is returning to the Western US as we start June. This has been the dominant summer pattern since the 15-16 super El Niño. But the winter pattern has been the opposite with more of a trough over the Western US and record ridging and warmth over the Northeast. So that record NE PAC block during the 13-14 and 14-15 winters shifted to the summer. And the winters have had trouble maintaining any type of ridging In these areas as a trough has been dominating out West. The recent exception was during January 22. That was the result of the MJO 8 pattern. But most of the winter MJO activity has been in the phase 4-7 range since the 15-16 super El Niño. 

 

That is interesting ... how well that maps over that bias ( summer ). 

But, I'm halting at the doorstop of interesting for now.   The longer termed ( obviously, less dependable - ) telecon favor a relaxation of the +PNA as we get passed mid month. Seeing more and more members attempting the diametric mode...  well shit speak of the devil, the 12z GFS - obviously to early for confidence.  That below actually contains a S/W heat release/kinetic air mass rattling around inside of it.   Look at that MCS traffic - that's something I have not seen now in years...a southern Ontario MCC

 

[GaWx]

51 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I still wonder if the discharge of radioactive water off Japan has played, or is playing a role, in this marine heat wave. Perhaps a small role, and its more likely that changes in atmospheric circulations thanks to the WP warm pool is playing a larger role. But I don’t really know for sure.

Also notice the marine heat wave seems to be spreading eastward with its extent all the way south of the GOA. One way we could see wholesale pacific changes is if that heat wave spreads all the way to the western coast of NA, while it abates off Japan and NW of Hawaii. Then we’d circle back to a 2013-15-like pattern. But that remains to be seen whether it happens, if ever. And if it does, it could take a few years.

 

The latest versions of the extended climate models for next winter on Tropical Tidbits (CFS, CANSIPS, NMME) are all keeping the warmest NPac SST anomalies in the W 1/2 of the ocean and are thus maintaining a robust -PDO. The same can be said for the Weather Bell versions of the CANSIPS and Euro.
 

 However, for an unexplained reason, the Weather Bell SSTa CFS maps, which have major differences in various parts of the globe, have been suggesting on most runs a +PDO with a large cold tongue extending from SE of Japan E to just N of Hawaii and a strong warm area just off W N America. It makes no sense for the same model for the same period to show near polar opposite output. It looks to me like there’s a serious bug in the WB CFS output.

[Rhino16]

26 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The latest versions of the extended climate models for next winter on Tropical Tidbits (CFS, CANSIPS, NMME) are all keeping the warmest NPac SST anomalies in the W 1/2 of the ocean and are thus maintaining a robust -PDO. The same can be said for the Weather Bell versions of the CANSIPS and Euro.
 

 However, for an unexplained reason, the Weather Bell SSTa CFS maps, which have major differences in various parts of the globe, have been suggesting on most runs a +PDO with a large cold tongue extending from SE of Japan E to just N of Hawaii and a strong warm area just off W N America. It makes no sense for the same model for the same period to show near polar opposite output. It looks to me like there’s a serious bug in the WB CFS output.

Does WB show what climatology it is using?

edit: actually this wouldn’t necessarily be the reason it’s wrong, especially if the other models agree with each other…

[GaWx]

9 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Does WB show what climatology it is using?

edit: actually this wouldn’t necessarily be the reason it’s wrong, especially if the other models agree with each other…

It is never bad to question the climo base as differences can cause different output. But in this case I don’t see that being the reason. WB uses 1981-2010 whereas TT uses 1984-2009. Not the same but they’re close. Also, WB CFS anomalies are much colder in some areas and warmer in others.
 From just N of Hawaii westward for 4,000 miles, WB CFS is solidly BN vs AN on TT CFS while just off N America WB CFS is solidly AN (warmer than just about the rest of the NPac) vs NN on TT CFS. So, WB is much colder in one area and warmer in another.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

MAM ONI (NOAA): + 0.7C

Best analog: 1988 (-3 months)

JJA 1987: +1.6 -> SON 2023: +1.6

JAS 1987: +1.7 -> OND 2023: +1.7

ASO 1987: +1.8 -> NDJ 2023-24: +1.8

SON 1987: +1.7 -> DJF 2023-24: +1.7

OND 1987: +1.4 -> JFM 2024: +1.5 (NOAA)

NDJ 1987-88: +1.1 -> FMA 2024: +1.1 (NOAA)

DJF 1987-88: +0.7 -> MAM 2024: +0.7 (NOAA)

MAM RONI: + 0.11C

Best analog: 2010

NDJ 2009   1.57 DJF 2010   1.45 JFM 2010   1.09 FMA 2010   0.62 MAM 2010   0.07 

NDJ 2023   1.47 DJF 2024   1.21 JFM 2024   0.86 FMA 2024   0.48 MAM 2024   0.11 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That is interesting ... how well that maps over that bias ( summer ). 

But, I'm halting at the doorstop of interesting for now.   The longer termed ( obviously, less dependable - ) telecon favor a relaxation of the +PNA as we get passed mid month. Seeing more and more members attempting the diametric mode...  well shit speak of the devil, the 12z GFS - obviously to early for confidence.  That below actually contains a S/W heat release/kinetic air mass rattling around inside of it.   Look at that MCS traffic - that's something I have not seen now in years...a southern Ontario MCC

 

The summer of 2017 to 2023 +PNA run was the longest on record since 1950 lasting 7 years. This June so far is a continuation of the streak. Everyone will be tracking the pattern next winter to see if the unprecedented 9 warmer to record warmer winters in a row around the Northeast makes it to 10 years. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The summer of 2017 to 2023 +PNA run was the longest on record since 1950 lasting 7 years. This June so far is a continuation of the streak. Everyone will be tracking the pattern next winter to see if the unprecedented 9 warmer to record warmer winters in a row around the Northeast makes it to 10 years. 

 

Put it this way ... the climate is changing fast enough now that "colder than normal patterns" may verify diurnals that average still > 0 but less than +.5 F as the mean - leaving folks scratching heads. 

It's like our neutral is above the 30 year normalized mean.  While rather standard deviation warm patterns routinely over perform.  I suspect the objective numbers already elucidate this to more than less "degree" ( pun hopefully annoying ...) anyway.  Then every once in a lengthening while, the big NE Pac ridge cold loads and does a big dump into mid latitude

 

[GaWx]

 The all important RONI ONI difference for MAM is out: -0.64. 

RONI +0.11
ONI +0.75

RONI ONI difference:
DJF: -0.58
JFM: -0.63
FMA: -0.66 (record low; records back to 1950)
MAM: -0.64

 So, the difference is holding as we go toward La Niña. That’s why I’ve been saying that the equivalent RONI weeklies recently likely had already gotten to ~-0.5. Based on the dailies bouncing back slightly in recent days, I’d guess the equivalent RONI dailies have probably bounced back to the -0.4 to -0.3 vicinity.

RONI: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

ONI: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt

[LakePaste25]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

The summer of 2017 to 2023 +PNA run was the longest on record since 1950 lasting 7 years. This June so far is a continuation of the streak. Everyone will be tracking the pattern next winter to see if the unprecedented 9 warmer to record warmer winters in a row around the Northeast makes it to 10 years. 

 

The correlation you’re showing makes sense, but I would add the caveat (in my opinion) that PNA doesn’t have as much of an influence on our summer compared to winter due to shorter wavelengths. You can have indexed - or + PNA that occupies different real estate that might give us a downstream ridge. I do think the NAO blocking  however, has a big influence. Here’s two of our recent hotter summers for example (you can find plenty more), 2018 and 2021 which had a predominately +PNA, but also an upstream eastern US ridge. Not a lot of -NAO during both of those. 
 

 

[raindancewx]

I find it a bit amusing that the severe heat wave in Mexico is breaking right as they elect their first female president, who happens to be a climate scientist (she's pretty bright - some of her papers are pretty interesting). 

The heat in some sense didn't really end though...it just moved. We're going to be near 100 locally at 5,300 feet above sea level. That's pretty common in June here but it doesn't typically happen until late June. 

Still doesn't look like much Atlantic hurricane activity is coming for a bit. I'm not completely sold on a hyperactive season just yet. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Could even be a wake-up call. A pulse reading that a modality is formulating where the bulk populous leans toward the veracity of climate change. If these democratic society leaders want to retain their power seats, they'd better plug their shit into something like the objective reality - dangerously hot air is in the commoner's living rooms.

Having 100 to 110 routinely over the 2 to 3 weeks leading the election ...prooobably didn't hurt her cause?  Lol.  I'm just speculating here, but I find that amusing.

It would be interested to hearing exit polling commentary, though.   Perhaps the masses have spoken, and their collective vote sends a message that if you want power and control over issues that affect all people, you had better stop screwing around.  Either way, to suffer that kind of heat and then a left wing climate specialist - like no shit!

'Hmm, maybe we ought to seek council from those with a sense of what's f'ing going on outside their environmentally controlled ivory towers.'

[FPizz]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Could even be a wake-up call. A pulse reading that a modality is formulating where the bulk populous leans toward the veracity of climate change. If these democratic societies leaders want to retain their power seats, they'd better plug their shit into something like the objective reality of palpable dangerously hot air in the commoner's living rooms.

Having 100 to 110 routinely over the 2 to 3 weeks leading the election ...prooobably didn't hurt her cause?  Lol.  I'm just speculating here, but I find that amusing.

It would be interested to hearing exit polling commentary, though.   Perhaps the masses have spoken, and their collective vote sends a message that if you want power and control over issues that affect all people, you had better stop screwing around.  Either way, to suffer that kind of heat and than a left wing climate specialist - like no shit!

'Hmm, maybe we ought to seek council from those with a sense of what's f'ing going on outside their environmentally controlled ivory towers.'

Vote for me I'll make it colder! 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

My prediction for 2024-25 ONI & RONI:

AMJ 2024 ONI: +0.3; RONI: -0.45

MJJ 2024 ONI: 0.0; RONI: -0.87

JJA 2024 ONI: -0.5; RONI: -1.17

JAS 2024 ONI: -1.0; RONI: -1.42

ASO 2024 ONI: -1.4; RONI: -1.61

SON 2024 ONI: -1.5; RONI: -1.70

OND 2024 ONI: -1.4; RONI: -1.70

NDJ 2024-25 ONI: -1.4; RONI: -1.65

DJF 2024-25 ONI: -1.3; RONI: -1.53

JFM 2025 ONI: -1.1; RONI: -1.24

FMA 2025 ONI: -0.9; RONI: -1.00

[bluewave]

A great map demonstrating why the -PDO was near daily record lows the last few days. There was an area of SSTs south of the Western Aleutians which were the warmest on record for the month of May. Also notice large areas of the tropical Western Pacific were also the warmest on record for the month of May. 

https://x.com/Climatologist49/status/1797698712766173461

May 2024 sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were warmer than any other May on record. May 2024 SSTs exceeded the record set just last year by 0.11°C (18.76°C vs 18.65°C global averages).

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Maybe, question is when in “early” 2025 does it peak and start descending? Is it January, February, March? 

It takes a good year following solar max for the solar wind to really kick up the geomaetnic energy. Its not immediate. But regardless, obviosuly we aren't seeing a 1995-1996 or anything. lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 6/3/2024 at 1:18 PM, GaWx said:

 Does it matter that much exactly what month the peak is determined to have occurred (which I’d think would have to be after the fact, regardless) if the peak is indeed going to end up occuring in early 2025?

No, not for this season. That will be more of a factor for 2025-2026 if it peaks this season.

20 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It takes a good year following solar max for the solar wind to really kick up the geomaetnic energy. Its not immediate. But regardless, obviosuly we aren't seeing a 1995-1996 or anything. lol

 

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

My prediction for 2024-25 ONI & RONI:

AMJ 2024 ONI: +0.3; RONI: -0.45

MJJ 2024 ONI: 0.0; RONI: -0.87

JJA 2024 ONI: -0.5; RONI: -1.17

JAS 2024 ONI: -1.0; RONI: -1.42

ASO 2024 ONI: -1.4; RONI: -1.61

SON 2024 ONI: -1.5; RONI: -1.70

OND 2024 ONI: -1.4; RONI: -1.70

NDJ 2024-25 ONI: -1.4; RONI: -1.65

DJF 2024-25 ONI: -1.3; RONI: -1.53

JFM 2025 ONI: -1.1; RONI: -1.24

FMA 2025 ONI: -0.9; RONI: -1.00

If that happens the RONI will be rivaling 73-74 and 88-89

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I find it a bit amusing that the severe heat wave in Mexico is breaking right as they elect their first female president, who happens to be a climate scientist (she's pretty bright - some of her papers are pretty interesting). 

The heat in some sense didn't really end though...it just moved. We're going to be near 100 locally at 5,300 feet above sea level. That's pretty common in June here but it doesn't typically happen until late June. 

Still doesn't look like much Atlantic hurricane activity is coming for a bit. I'm not completely sold on a hyperactive season just yet. 

No one should ever be "sold" on an extreme anomaly...unless its a DM warm anomaly in today's climate.

[snowman19]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It takes a good year following solar max for the solar wind to really kick up the geomaetnic energy. Its not immediate. But regardless, obviosuly we aren't seeing a 1995-1996 or anything. lol

I wish I had a dollar for everytime the usual suspects on twitter said 95-96 was the analog when there is a La Niña 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If that happens the RONI will be rivaling 73-74 and 88-89

That RONI plot is just a combination of the 2010-11 and 1998-99 peaks. I used the 2010 analog through OND, and then changed to 1998-99 starting with NDJ. I'm not so sure we even hit the 2010-11 peak of -1.7 now that we've fallen behind the pace.

The ONI is just 1988 shifted 3 months until OND, then change to 1998-99 starting with NDJ.

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

The correlation you’re showing makes sense, but I would add the caveat (in my opinion) that PNA doesn’t have as much of an influence on our summer compared to winter due to shorter wavelengths. You can have indexed - or + PNA that occupies different real estate that might give us a downstream ridge. I do think the NAO blocking  however, has a big influence. Here’s two of our recent hotter summers for example (you can find plenty more), 2018 and 2021 which had a predominately +PNA, but also an upstream eastern US ridge. Not a lot of -NAO during both of those. 
 

 

Yeah, our sensible weather here in the Northeast is determined by the combination of several teleconnections or 500mb anomaly centers acting in concert. But the +PNA influence during the last 7 summers left open the possibility of a slightly cooler than average outcomes when combined with factors such as the NAO and AO. This was the case in the summers of 2023 and 2017. So our summers since the 2015-2016 super El Niño have featured 6 out of 8 warmer than average to record warm summers. The winters have featured 9 out of 9 warmer to record warmer years in a row since the 2015-2016 super El Niño. This has been more impressive with the record Western Pacific warm pool driven MJO 4-7 record activity. We will probably need to find a marine heatwave somewhere else strong enough in coming winters to shift the dominant forcing away from the Maritime Continent if we are to see a colder than normal winter again. But I am currently not seeing where or how such a shift away from a warm to record warm winter pattern of the last 9 years will happen.

[Yanksfan]

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, our sensible weather here in the Northeast is determined by the combination of several teleconnections or 500mb anomaly centers acting in concert. But the +PNA influence during the last 7 summers left open the possibility of a slightly cooler than average outcomes when combined with factors such as the NAO and AO. This was the case in the summers of 2023 and 2017. So our summers since the 2015-2016 super El Niño have featured 6 out of 8 warmer than average to record warm summers. The winters have featured 9 out of 9 warmer to record warmer years in a row since the 2015-2016 super El Niño. This has been more impressive with the record Western Pacific warm pool driven MJO 4-7 record activity. We will probably need to find a marine heatwave somewhere else strong enough in coming winters to shift the dominant forcing away from the Maritime Continent if we are to see a colder than normal winter again. But I am currently not seeing where or how such a shift away from a warm to record warm winter pattern of the last 9 years will happen.

Having that warm Pacific blob migrate eastward would fix the winter blahs as well.

[Terpeast]

24 minutes ago, Yanksfan said:

Having that warm Pacific blob migrate eastward would fix the winter blahs as well.

And for the west Pac to cool, too. But no sign of that happening yet. 

[Yanksfan]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

And for the west Pac to cool, too. But no sign of that happening yet. 

Not saying when but in due time it will. While this pattern is stubborn, weather is cyclical by nature. Who can forget the string of great winters the metro had a decade ago? All good and bad patterns ultimately come to an end.

[raindancewx]

https://x.com/Claudiashein

I'm kind of tempted to ask Mexico's new president about seasonal forecasting models in Mexico or in general. It's a weird thing, thinking a politician could answer that or discuss that with a US president to improve our weather forecasting. 

The heat wave in MX seems tied to delayed monsoon onset as much as anything. Here is what AI had to say. It's pretty consistent with my own research. I've also found August/Sept tend to be wetter than July at statistically significant levels locally using a difference in proportions test at the 0.05 level with high v. low, July-June annualized solar activity.

What kind of winter does the US tend to see following a delayed start to the monsoon in Mexico?

 

Answer

Based on the provided search results, a delayed start to the monsoon season in Mexico tends to be followed by a drier than normal winter across the southwestern United States, including states like New Mexico, Arizona, and parts of Texas. Here are the key points:

• There is an inverse relationship between winter precipitation in the southwestern U.S. and the strength/timing of the subsequent North American Monsoon. A wet winter is generally followed by a weaker/later monsoon (Me: we had a wet winter in 2023-24), while a dry winter precedes a stronger/earlier monsoon onset.
• If the monsoon gets a late start in Mexico, with precipitation increases delayed until late June or July, this tends to signal an early end to the monsoon rains in the U.S. Southwest as well. The monsoon moisture surge progresses northward from Mexico.
• A late monsoon onset in Mexico is often linked to cooler sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific (me - which we have), which can suppress the monsoon circulation and moisture transport. Warmer Gulf of Mexico temperatures (me - which we have) can enhance moisture flow into Mexico and the Southwest during an earlier monsoon onset.
• When the North American Monsoon starts late in Mexico, climate models project a decrease in monsoon rainfall over the southwestern U.S. in July and August, followed by an increase in September and October compared to normal. This suggests a delayed, shorter monsoon season.
• The delayed timing of the monsoon rains may be more impactful than the total precipitation amount. A late monsoon onset preceded by a dry winter would likely lead to an extended dry period in the fall across the Southwest before the arrival of winter precipitation.

So in summary, when the monsoon rains are delayed in getting established over Mexico, it serves as an indicator that the upcoming winter is more likely to be drier than average across New Mexico, Arizona and surrounding states due to the inverse relationship between winter and monsoon precipitation in this region.

[mitchnick]

5 hours ago, raindancewx said:

https://x.com/Claudiashein

I'm kind of tempted to ask Mexico's new president about seasonal forecasting models in Mexico or in general. It's a weird thing, thinking a politician could answer that or discuss that with a US president to improve our weather forecasting. 

The heat wave in MX seems tied to delayed monsoon onset as much as anything. Here is what AI had to say. It's pretty consistent with my own research. I've also found August/Sept tend to be wetter than July at statistically significant levels locally using a difference in proportions test at the 0.05 level with high v. low, July-June annualized solar activity.

What kind of winter does the US tend to see following a delayed start to the monsoon in Mexico?

 

Answer

Based on the provided search results, a delayed start to the monsoon season in Mexico tends to be followed by a drier than normal winter across the southwestern United States, including states like New Mexico, Arizona, and parts of Texas. Here are the key points:

• There is an inverse relationship between winter precipitation in the southwestern U.S. and the strength/timing of the subsequent North American Monsoon. A wet winter is generally followed by a weaker/later monsoon (Me: we had a wet winter in 2023-24), while a dry winter precedes a stronger/earlier monsoon onset.
• If the monsoon gets a late start in Mexico, with precipitation increases delayed until late June or July, this tends to signal an early end to the monsoon rains in the U.S. Southwest as well. The monsoon moisture surge progresses northward from Mexico.
• A late monsoon onset in Mexico is often linked to cooler sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific (me - which we have), which can suppress the monsoon circulation and moisture transport. Warmer Gulf of Mexico temperatures (me - which we have) can enhance moisture flow into Mexico and the Southwest during an earlier monsoon onset.
• When the North American Monsoon starts late in Mexico, climate models project a decrease in monsoon rainfall over the southwestern U.S. in July and August, followed by an increase in September and October compared to normal. This suggests a delayed, shorter monsoon season.
• The delayed timing of the monsoon rains may be more impactful than the total precipitation amount. A late monsoon onset preceded by a dry winter would likely lead to an extended dry period in the fall across the Southwest before the arrival of winter precipitation.

So in summary, when the monsoon rains are delayed in getting established over Mexico, it serves as an indicator that the upcoming winter is more likely to be drier than average across New Mexico, Arizona and surrounding states due to the inverse relationship between winter and monsoon precipitation in this region.

Drier out your way would probably suggest High Pressure overhead. Might result in more troughiness in the east...he says with gleam in his eyes. Or maybe that's just because I woke up at 4:30. 

[GaWx]

 The NOAA PDO for May of 2024 comes in way down at -2.97, which compares to the May WCS PDO of -1.86. The last time the May PDO was lower than this was way back in 1950. 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

 That tells me that the last few days of NOAA PDOs have very likely been near -4. I’m educatedly guessing that the upcoming winter NOAA PDO will average -1.5 or lower based on the model progs and recent trends. The last 3 winters have been sub -1.5. Getting a sub -2 will be very tough based on there having been only four that low since 1853-4. But there have been 16 sub -1.5 and La Niña will help the chance for, say, a -1.5 to -1.75 winter. I’ll be surprised if it isn’t sub -1.

[bluewave]

14 hours ago, Yanksfan said:

Having that warm Pacific blob migrate eastward would fix the winter blahs as well.

This goes to what I have been saying in earlier posts in this thread. The winter 13-14 and 14-15 Northeast Pacific blocking pattern has shifted to the summer. Some were expecting a repeat of those winters in 19-20 when the marine heatwave exceeded those levels during the summer. But the pattern weakened heading into the fall and winter allowing the MJO 4-7 and supercharged SPV to dominate during the 19-20 winter. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-15820-w

Summer 2019 observations show a rapid resurgence of the Blob-like warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that produced devastating marine impacts in the Northeast Pacific during winter 2013/2014. Unlike the original Blob, Blob 2.0 peaked in the summer, a season when little is known about the physical drivers of such events