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2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations


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3 minutes ago, mob1 said:

I'd kill for that. Given the temperatures to start, dry midlevels at the storms closest approach (that aspect is always undermodeled)- then it'll take some time to moisten the columns again and by then the storm is moving east quickly and it'll be daytime anyways so it'll likely be white rain. 

If NYC records an inch, I'll consider it a win. 

I'm betting over. I will say it again and people are dismissing it . 

It's a bombing low near the Benchmark. We are talking sub 990

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12 minutes ago, North and West said:

I would thoroughly enjoy being surprised, but if we get 16” out this in Morristown, then I’m also playing in the Super Bowl this evening whilst dating a billionaire pop star.


Hahaha hey neighbor. Totally agree with your odds of that happening! 

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Winter Storm Warning

National Weather Service New York NY
327 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2024

Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Western Passaic-Western Bergen-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-
327 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2024


* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10

* WHERE...Parts of northeast New Jersey and southeast New York,
  and all of interior southern Connecticut.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute.


If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.



For more information from the National Weather Service visit
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After how bad the NAM was with the last storm (way too cold) why are people taking it seriously? The HRRR and GFS were equally as bad, they had areas that got all rain getting snow even as the event started. They even had my area getting a few of inches of snow and I didn’t see so much as a dusting. This is a classic SWFE, they almost always move north in the last 12 hours, not south and models almost always underestimate the mid-level warming in these. Rain to snow events as a general rule tend to underperform, especially with upper 40’s the day before going into it. Surface temps are going to be above freezing and ratios are going to be less than 10:1. I would wait until the 0z runs tonight and the 6z runs tomorrow morning before I spike the football

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5 hours ago, USCG RS said:

Given the Baroclynic Zone to set up, I would say this shifts south. You have cold air coming in, not retreating. 

Likewise, as a poster (MaineJay) on another board stated: "I'll go on a little limb here. The baroclinic zone appears about 20-40 miles south of what the NAM3 has it. I'm thinking that the NAMs tick south with the 12z." 

This has been my sentiment for a while (he just more beautifully stated it). 

That withstanding, given the cold air overriding the warm SSTs, I would say this shifts south. Likewise, the BCZ will allow for better dynamics as well. I would say NYC and LI, SCT as well are in a good spot for this. Thumpy. 




As usual you are always spot on. PLEASE post more often.

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9 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Inner weenie is comin on out 


6 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Awful visual. Think I just threw up a little in my mouth 

You’ll be fine Rmine1. You just had a Joey Chestnut moment. As always ….

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