Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[HIPPYVALLEY]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

24 hour storm 

8-12 hour storm.   

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I feel like this will be a south of Pike event. Let’s see how models look tomorrow but I’m planning on a light event up this way.

I do not agree.

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

2.4 hour storm 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

All you need is 12 hours in a good deformation area.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I do not agree.

Yeah, I’m just feeling cautious on this one. Let’s  see how modeling goes once we get into some better sampling tomorrow. I’m just worried about S stream coming in weaker and getting suppressed. 
are you thinking we start to see slightly more amped north trends showing up?
 

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All you need is 12 hours in a good deformation area.

Yes and this has some juice to it. It’s not going to put up 20-burgers all over the place but there’s potential for a widespread 10-14” if it breaks right. 2/9/17 is another quick hitter that comes to mind that kind of reminds me of this….produced a lot of 10-14” amounts even though the event was basically a 9-12 hour job. 
 

Be leery of the north trend though on the southern streamers. 

[CT Rain]

That improved confluence to the north increases the risk of suppression but it definitely helps with better cold air source and even better frontogenesis with a stronger baroclinic zone.

Sort of playing with fire but I like the look now a lot better than 2 days ago.

[Damage In Tolland]

There shouldn’t be much of a north trend 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CT Rain said:

That improved confluence to the north increases the risk of suppression but it definitely helps with better cold air source and even better frontogenesis with a stronger baroclinic zone.

Sort of playing with fire but I like the look now a lot better than 2 days ago.

Draws down some colder air in the CCB…temps would def be less of an issue on that look. They’d be marginal at the onset but once it got cranking, you have like -6 at 925 ingested into the system.  

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There shouldn’t be much of a north trend 

OK 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, I’m just feeling cautious on this one. Let’s  see how modeling goes once we get into some better sampling tomorrow. I’m just worried about S stream coming in weaker and getting suppressed. 
are you thinking we start to see slightly more amped north trends showing up?
 

Yes. Absolutely. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes and this has some juice to it. It’s not going to put up 20-burgers all over the place but there’s potential for a widespread 10-14” if it breaks right. 2/9/17 is another quick hitter that comes to mind that kind of reminds me of this….produced a lot of 10-14” amounts even though the event was basically a 9-12 hour job. 
 

Be leery of the north trend though on the southern streamers. 

I had 6" in 3 hours in 1/7....that will happen somewhere in this.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

That improved confluence to the north increases the risk of suppression but it definitely helps with better cold air source and even better frontogenesis with a stronger baroclinic zone.

Sort of playing with fire but I like the look now a lot better than 2 days ago.

Yep, like I said earlier....higher stakes.

[CoastalWx]

No 1/7 please. Let’s spread the love. 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No 1/7 please. Let’s spread the love. 

At least it looks like if the track is similar to 1/7, we’ll be significantly colder with that high trying to press down and getting that airmass ingested. 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, gimme some 1/7...

Where I am, at this rate I'd gladly take a 1/7 redux. I've only got the ICON in my corner right now - that's not... ideal. Shit, I'll even give you one of my inches to bump you up to 20" this time around (phrasing).

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I feel like this will be a south of Pike event. Let’s see how models look tomorrow but I’m planning on a light event up this way.

I think it will snow some here.  

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

At least it looks like if the track is similar to 1/7, we’ll be significantly colder with that high trying to press down and getting that airmass ingested. 

It's actually the weak S/W and attendant back side flow going normal to the hydrostatic gradient ( i.e., CAA) ... which scoots by overnight Saturday night - while not a huge deal, it is crucial and starts that process ...  

The advent of 'sneaky' cold advection 30 ... 36 hours prior to arrive disturbances is quite highly correlated - for those that don't know to look for that

[8611Blizz]

Some boston Mets are still pushing the rain train fwiw.

[CoastalWx]

26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

At least it looks like if the track is similar to 1/7, we’ll be significantly colder with that high trying to press down and getting that airmass ingested. 

Yeah and SSTs a few degrees cooler.

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I feel like this will be a south of Pike event. Let’s see how models look tomorrow but I’m planning on a light event up this way.

Lol, yesterday and the day before it was just the opposite.  Give it another couple days, and it may be different yet again. 

[brooklynwx99]

ECMWF likely would have been GFS-like. slightly stronger and faster vort, but more confluence. note the wind barbs are more WNW-ly rather than W on the ECMWF, hence more of a pushback against latitude gain

not sure how far this thing can really push north. you have a big ass TPV lobe sitting nearby

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

45 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I think it will snow some here.  

Lol. Bold thought.  More surprised posts of pics with you and the dog in shin deep snow coming?

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

ECMWF likely would have been GFS-like. slightly stronger and faster vort, but more confluence. note the wind barbs are more WNW-ly rather than W on the ECMWF, hence more of a pushback against latitude gain

not sure how far this thing can really push north. you have a big ass TPV lobe sitting nearby

Ideally, I would like the mid level goodies to settle a bit south of me on guidance.

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Ideally, I would like the mid level goodies to settle a bit south of me on guidance.

honestly, amp everything up, both confluence and the vort. provides the most explosive solution

[Damage In Tolland]

Trends def south. Confluence FTW on this one . I like where we sit 

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah I agree the 18z euro out to 90h looks south of 12z. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Gfs schooling the euro and the pope with the non phasing, more SS focused, and stronger confluence. Regardless of surface output…it has lead the way. We could still see the SS amp up with weaker confluence over the next 72hrs though so that’s another wrickle we’ll need to fine tune but we’re more hopeful SoP then we were 36hrs ago.

[Torch Tiger]

Hopefully it crushes SOP or even south coast.  Great news!

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gfs schooling the euro and the pope with the non phasing, more SS focused, and stronger confluence. Regardless of surface output…it has lead the way. We could still see the SS amp up with weaker confluence over the next 72hrs though so that’s another wrickle we’ll need to fine tune but we’re more hopeful SoP then we were 36hrs ago.

TPV stuff is so fickle. wouldn't surprise me to see a northern correction, but could keep going farther south. just gotta sit and wait. the synoptic pattern is solid enough with all of the LP in the northern ATL to prevent this from just flying north