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January 22-23 Potential Ice Event


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Yeah I think there is just too much focus on the power aspect when in reality the travel aspect is much more dangerous.
Last year's ice storm in far northern Illinois has minimal if any road impacts and tremendous infrastructure impacts. That was our worst ice storm since I've been here, definitely worse impacts than 2/19/19. Honestly tough to say how the road impacts will play out tonight, especially if temps come up close to freezing with the aforementioned lighter winds.



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Fascinating insight into your world as always @RCNYILWX thanks for sharing! I saw in the IWX media briefing there’s potential for wind gusts to 20 mph and that led me to believe there would be an increased risk of outages. But that appears to be in the early stages of this event before winds decrease.

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4 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Last year's ice storm in far northern Illinois has minimal if any road impacts and tremendous infrastructure impacts. That was our worst ice storm since I've been here, definitely worse impacts than 2/19/19. Honestly tough to say how the road impacts will play out tonight, especially if temps come up close to freezing with the aforementioned lighter winds.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

I'd have to imagine the roads will be bad considering how cold it was and for how long. Not quite to the magnitude of the ice storm after the Polar Vortex came south in 2014, but I do think it will be significant, especially with moderate precip rates vs heavy, limiting run off.

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12 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

not sure how good the GFS is with freezing rain 

12z

fram_acc-imp.us_mw.png

GFS nailed the ice storm that hit SE Michigan last February. But just like anything that model is the one that won out with that event. We will see this go around.

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Mesoscale Discussion 0083
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0917 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024

   Areas affected...portions of eastern/northeastern IL...northern
   IN...far southern MI and far northwest OH

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 221517Z - 221915Z

   SUMMARY...Light to moderate freezing rain is expected through the
   morning hours with rates of 0.01-0.03 in/hr possible. Some
   mixed-phase precipitation is also possible early.

   DISCUSSION...As of 15 UTC, regional radar mosaic imagery and surface
   observations showed a broad area of light to moderate wintry
   precipitation across parts of northeastern IL. Over the last hour,
   automated reports of unknown precipitation type and freezing rain
   have gradually become more numerous as the precipitation has
   expanded over an air mass with surface temperatures in the mid to
   upper 20s F. Driven primarily by low-level warm advection, light to
   moderate precipitation is expected to continue to move
   east/northeast this morning. Light snow has been observed across
   parts of southwest lower MI and northwest IN. However, observed and
   modified model soundings show an elevated warm nose of 1-2 C between
   1-2 km AGL will gradually advect northeastward over the next few
   hours. While some snow and sleet are possible ahead of the main area
   of precipitation, gradually deepening of the elevated warm layer to
   near 600-800 m will favor a transition to predominately freezing
   rain.

   Rain rates of 0.01-0.03 in/hr are possible above favorable surface
   temperatures for rapid ice accretion. The most likely corridor for
   impactful freezing rain appears to be from northeastern IL into
   northwest IN and far southwest lower MI through this morning. Hi-res
   CAM guidance has been poor thus far in handling the evolution of the
   precipitation field. While low-level warm advection may wane
   slightly through the day, observed low and mid-level ascent appears
   strong enough to continue to support precipitation into the early
   afternoon. Given the cold surface temperatures and melting layer
   aloft, freezing rain appears likely.

   ..Lyons.. 01/22/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

 

IMG_2796.png

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15 minutes ago, bowtie` said:

5244cee2-a81f-4b5f-8b62-29507eae3e4f.645

Funny you post that. I just bought myself a set of those same ones because I busted my ass 5 times last week and fell thru ice crossing a creek during work.  Had a cheap pair but lost those last week also

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Looks like this will NOT be an Ice Storm Warning event.

IWX AFD:

Key messages:
*Freezing rain tonight through Tuesday morning. Ice accumulations
 of 0.10 to 0.25 inch.
*Treacherous travel Tuesday morning, before a transition to rain in
the afternoon.

Mapped ice accumulations have been reduced with the afternoon
forecast package, as to not exceed 0.25". Please note that only a
glaze of ice can cause significant travel issues. The messaging
within the Winter Weather Advisory remains, "total ice accumulations
of one tenth to a quarter of an inch.". An anticipated break in the
precipitation, low wind speeds, and moderate rain rates will all
work to limit FZRA accumulations much beyond 0.25". Furthermore, the
lack of a blocking high pressure to our north and anticipated deep
southerly flow will limit the risk of a significant ice storm.
Regardless of the headline title, hazardous travel conditions are
expected tonight through Tuesday morning.

Air temperatures have warmed to near freezing this afternoon, with
pockets of freezing rain being reported. Slippery travel conditions
have been confined to the western and northwestern reached of the
forecast area. This precipitation is the result of modest warm air
advection ahead of a weak trough that has moved through the Great
Lakes. The weak forcing, paired with our initial dry air mass, has
limited precipitation rates thus far. However, light rainfall rates
are very efficient with respect to ice accumulation; hence the
slippery travel noted above.

Amid southwest flow, freezing rain is expected to spread northeast
through the forecast area tonight. There is high confidence that
impacts to travel will become more common as the night goes on.
This, as deeper moisture arrives and the thermal gradient aloft
amplifies primarily toward and after midnight, bringing widespread
freezing rain to the forecast area. The overnight timing and the
preexisting cold temperatures continue to provide high confidence in
accumulating ice tonight.

Toward dawn, moderate rainfall rates will ease icing efficiency,
followed by a gradual warming trend from  south to north in the
afternoon. A transition to all rain is expected Tuesday afternoon.
Therefore,the Winter Weather Advisory end time remains at 1pm EST
Tuesday. It is plausible the air temperature in the vicinity of
Hillsdale, MI could linger below freezing a a touch beyond that;
something to be monitored on Tuesday.
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3 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

I got a flight out at 7am, good chance its canceled? Also do they have to de-ice a plane if it sits more than an hour between landing and taking off for the next flight? 

I would say unsure on both but check ahead when you wake up.

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2 hours ago, Frog Town said:

In Toledo and the temp is pushing 37.  Not sure if there is warmer push than modeled, but it's gonna need to cool off significantly.  

The newest HRRR says 0 to 0.15" freezing rain for Toledo and up into the 0.30" range north of town.

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