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Snow Friday 1/19/24: is it a period of light snow (less than 2"), or is there a chance of a 5" swath in part of the NYC subforum? Event OBS.


wdrag
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We will have to wait for our big storm.   I've seen these surprise small swaths enough times not to write it off until it's over.  

 

Going to be a great time bird hunting with my dog in Pemberton, NJ tomorrow.  Nothing better than watching birds flush into falling snow.    Hope I don't drive home to find it raining or mixing on barnegat bay.  

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1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Why is it a bust? It was 1 to 3 all along. Now if we only get a dusting or flurries tomorrow I'd say its a bust. Upton is being conservative and that's wise at the moment. 

I don’t think there’s gonna be much accumulation if the rates are as light as models are starting to show. Everything’s covered in salt, it’s during the day, light rates

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6 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Im kinda surprized nobody is even talking the possibility of snow today,tech its snowing rn just not hitting the ground yet.:lol:

my iphone screen shows snowflakes falling -lol

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2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

I don’t think there’s gonna be much accumulation if the rates are as light as models are starting to show. Everything’s covered in salt, it’s during the day, light rates

im sure you will be saying beautiful light snow tomorrow everything covered. 

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1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Why is it a bust? It was 1 to 3 all along. Now if we only get a dusting or flurries tomorrow I'd say its a bust. Upton is being conservative and that's wise at the moment. 

Also, the "big winners" might only get a couple more inches of snow.

Looks like it will snow tomorrow and cover more than just cold surfaces and even stick around for a few days. I'd call that a win this season.

Also, inverted troughs are biatches to forecast.

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1 minute ago, SBUWX23 said:

im sure you will be saying beautiful light snow tomorrow everything covered. 

time to start comparing radar returns with mesoscale model runs and actual surface reports to get an idea about tomorrow here.......

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Just now, Metasequoia said:

Also, the "big winners" might only get a couple more inches of snow.

Looks like it will snow tomorrow and cover more than just cold surfaces and even stick around for a few days. I'd call that a win this season.

Also, inverted troughs are biatches to forecast.

These troughs sometimes hit places that were not modeled.  Have to watch that tomorrow .

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Just now, Metasequoia said:

Also, the "big winners" might only get a couple more inches of snow.

Looks like it will snow tomorrow and cover more than just cold surfaces and even stick around for a few days. I'd call that a win this season.

Also, inverted troughs are biatches to forecast.

All the models have a relative skunk zone over the metro with more to the south and more to the northwest but who knows at this point. Probably won't be uniform amounts

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14 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said:

im sure you will be saying beautiful light snow tomorrow everything covered. 

we all will.  even in a good winter, seeing a few inches of snow fall during the day is an experience to treasure.  I even like it when the sun comes out afterwards, it makes the snow sparkle like diamonds.

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I looked for a sweet spot based on your detailed snowfall maps of the region and I'd say for Nassau County it's near Muttowntown and for Suffolk County (and Long Island in general), it's somewhere between Miller Place and Mt Sinai.  We have snowfall measuring stations there I believe?

I am unaware of any supporting data for that conclusion.

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48 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Why is it a bust? It was 1 to 3 all along. Now if we only get a dusting or flurries tomorrow I'd say its a bust. Upton is being conservative and that's wise at the moment. 

When I hear the local forecasters saying " COULD be 1 or 2 inches" I know not to pay any more attention to it and hope for another event another day, which hopefully won't be 3-5 years from now LOL.

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1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

When I hear the local forecasters saying " COULD be 1 or 2 inches" I know not to pay any more attention to it and hope for another event another day, which hopefully won't be 3-5 years from now LOL.

It’s not even an advisory level event it’s 1-2 maybe at this point

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