John1122 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 The Arctic blast is coming and there's a pretty good shot that at least the western half of the forum seeing several inches of snow. Time to fire up a thread so long range discussion can proceed as normal in the January thread. Don't have the ratio'd Euro but I suspect it's better than the 10:1. 06z GFS 00z Euro 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 MRX Morning Disco " Early next week will see a dramatic change in the weather brought on by much colder temperatures for first half of the work week. The two main impacts for the first part of the week will be bitterly cold temperatures/wind chill values and possibly accumulating snowfall in the Valley. Fairly high confidence on the very cold temperatures with the worst mornings being Tuesday and Wednesday mornings where ambient temperatures look to drop into the teens, and widespread single digits Wednesday morning. Wednesday morning will be the coldest wind chill morning as the winds will be about 5-15 mph out of the west dropping wind chill values to near zero area-wide and well below zero in the higher elevations. The other aspect of this system will be the possibility of accumulating snowfall across the Valley for Monday through Tuesday. QPF amounts look somewhat limited for this event, but if the temperature forecast verifies it will be favorable for snowfall across much of the area. Probabilistic guidance continues to show a greater than 50% chance to see over an inch of snow along Interstate 40, with better chances to see more snowfall as you go further northwest, with around a 20% to see an inch of snow near Chattanooga. Probabilities of seeing over 3 inches of snow drops down to about 30% along Interstate 40. So currently most ensemble guidance is painting possibly Winter Weather Advisory criteria snowfall amounts for the first half of next week. This is still several days out and the QPF amounts can change quite a bit with systems like this, so make sure to stay tuned to the latest forecast and don`t just pick out the highest forecast snowfall totals you see on social media as the most likely scenario." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 OHX Morning Disco " .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 203 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Some wrap around moisture will linger into Friday night which could end as some light snow showers along the Plateau. Little to no accumulations are expected with those. This weekend will be chilly with highs in the 30s to low 40s but we are going to miss those 30s and 40s because a very cold airmass will be sagging southward on Sunday. We`ve been talking about the potential for some snow early next week and that continues to be the case. Some timing differences persist, but snow showers will be possible as early as Sunday night, but more so on Monday as a couple shortwaves swing through. QPF will likely be light with these disturbances, but snow ratios will be higher than our typical Middle Tennessee snows thanks to the cold air in place. The details on the timing and any snow accumulations will still need to be worked out in the coming days. The one thing that has been consistent is the bitterly cold air with this air mass. Once temperatures drop below freezing Sunday evening, locations will remain there until at least Wednesday afternoon, if not Thursday afternoon. Lows Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning will be in the single digits across the majority of the area." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 No morning disco from Memphis yet. That area has the best shot at snow the way it looks now but as always, everything is subject to change. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Here's the kuchera euro 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 If it digs and slows/separates wave #2 (Red Circle surface reflection) a hair more...Blue arrow is wave #1 departing. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 GFS trending toward EURO. All I care about right now is what the euro does. If we can just increase QPF even .15-.2 across the region you're talking about widespread 7-8" the ceiling is so high with this one. GFS is snow in the single digits. Ratios will be upwards of 20:1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 33 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: GFS trending toward EURO. All I care about right now is what the euro does. If we can just increase QPF even .15-.2 across the region you're talking about widespread 7-8" the ceiling is so high with this one. GFS is snow in the single digits. Ratios will be upwards of 20:1 Also, hasn't the Euro been under performing on precipitation this season so far? With this last storm I was projected to get around 1.5 inches of rain and ended up with 2.5. One can only hope that trend continues next week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 6z Euro was taller with the western ridge. We’ll see what that means on the control in about an hour or so. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 hours ago, John1122 said: No morning disco from Memphis yet. That area has the best shot at snow the way it looks now but as always, everything is subject to change. This morning the ABC 24 news Meteorologist in Memphis talked about the possibility of accumulating snow in west Tennessee along with bitterly cold temperatures for next week. He said he was going to wait until tomorrow morning to start talking about/predicting snow totals. Guess we will see what he says tomorrow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 6z Euro control was a lot slower and deeper with the trailing wave. It almost looked like it was trying for a suppressed Miller A: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 27 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: 6z Euro control was a lot slower and deeper with the trailing wave. It almost looked like it was trying for a suppressed Miller A: Wow that was a major East coast Storm there. 12z will be interesting! Need it to turn that corner even faster to get precip back our way but that's a great look 5-6 days out. i feel like we have been saying 6 days out for 4 days now lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Would snow on the ground to our NW change anything? Could the front have less drag and in return makes it further SE and could potentially suppress a GOM low if it’s there?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 This is a super long event. Snow breaking out with the Arctic front by hr 90 on gfs but trailing piece doesn't pull away until hour 144 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Memphis morning disco…. 3 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I was wondering when TROWAL would make an appearance! 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Out to 96 on the 12z GFS, this run is flatter yet again. Energy is held back over SE TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 At 102, the anafront made into E TN. Now, let's see where all of that energy along the GOM goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Yeah stronger push from the artic air this run. A jog south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Long fetch WSW winds will be conducive to overrunning. Models don’t typically handle it well either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Euro sniffed this one out, GFS caving to a Miller A solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Looks to me at hour 120 12Z GFS, the low is centered about 100 miles west of 6z GFS for the same point in time. If we can get that to continue until that sucker is nearer to the coast... At 120 that low though is 100 miles closer to Hatteras than it was at 6Z.Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, Reb said: Euro sniffed this one out, GFS caving to a Miller A solution Technically the GFS had it as a perfect Miller A initially and we've wondered through the D5-7 lost phases. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 GFS rings me up for 13 inches. I'll be happy with 33 percent of that but hope like heck it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 If we continue heading this direction….. This could trend to a two part snow storm for some (maybe widespread). Overrunning followed by the main course. I won’t be surprised to see an overachiever with the overrunning…. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, John1122 said: Technically the GFS had it as a perfect Miller A initially and we've wondered through the D5-7 lost phases. True but it has had every solution possible to be fair lol. Euro more or less set the tone. Really liking this set up, now we need you to book a trip to Chattanooga 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Until the models can figure out the shortwave troughs,we'll continue to see changes each run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 DEFINITE jog south and east w/ the snow axis. edit: regarding the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 Canadian moved some towards the SE since 0z but has went insane over Arkansas, dropping 28 inches of snow over parts of it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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