SBUWX23 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The 1/2017 storm was odd in that a LP which originated off FL managed to come N enough to impact us, nobody had ever seen that before, if we see the same happen again and get a substantial snow event out of it it just adds to the list of odd things we see that we never used to That was all jet dynamics. The models did not handle the upper jet well at all leading up to it. Within 12-24 hours out the GFS i remember finally picked up on the amplification of the jet and we had excellent right entrance lift from a departing 160-180 kt. The flatter solutions leading up to the event led to models to have precip offshore. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 49 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The 1/2017 storm was odd in that a LP which originated off FL managed to come N enough to impact us, nobody had ever seen that before, if we see the same happen again and get a substantial snow event out of it it just adds to the list of odd things we see that we never used to Was that the 12 hr blizzard where we had whiteout conditions all day? I loved that storm, I consider if a half sized version of January 2016 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 43 minutes ago, Allsnow said: At least a good many are better than the OP. I think we can’t expect a big storm but moderate is still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Trailing energy is stronger on the 18z euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, Allsnow said: Trailing energy is stronger on the 18z euro Hgts higher on east coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 TPV is further southwest as well. This should be a better run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Mod snow Tuesday morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Low over obx 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: The Euro caves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, Tatamy said: The Euro caves Seems to be caving.. and we're not done yet. GFS too. Event hasn't happened so will have to wait til 00z/17 to know for sure. I continue with the RGEM/GGEM/NAM/HRRR blend. If the Canadian drops it... then its over. Some of the modeling is showing 6+". axis should be near I95 or just northwest but we'll see. Definitely higher fluffier powdery snow ratios inland. Staying with 1-3" NYC...but no guarantee 1". 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 So back to looking like a mixed bag/rain for the immediate coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, Rmine1 said: So back to looking like a mixed bag/rain for the immediate coast? Not yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 0z runs tonight will be very telling, im hoping for a solid 1-3 for the coast and more inland but we'll see what we get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Not yet The NW trend used to be our friend, now it’s that annoying neighbor. At this point, anything that is better than a 1:1 snow ratio is a win. Unfortunately I think the “immediate” coast will be skunked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 287 special? I gotta warm up the Horse and Buggy if so… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 EPS mean up to 2-3 for 95 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 10 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: 287 special? I gotta warm up the Horse and Buggy if so… i'll say it again... its a treacherous journey to wegmans 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 A friend of mine who is a former NWS met said on a sports message board I frequent that, "The NBM is the starting pt for all NWS fcsts." You can tell he used to write AFDs by his abbreviations, lol. Anyway here's the regional NWS forecast (which I like better than the separate Philly and NYC office maps) and the NBM 19Z forecast which are nearly identical. Would be nice for these to verify and break those friggin' <1" streaks and it would also be nice to get at least 1-2" or more of snow and have it be around all week, given temps will struggle to get above 32F through next weekend. And it would be awesome to get more snow then... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: EPS mean up to 2-3 for 95 Anything to the East? Not liking the trends for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I am going with the trend is your friend. The trend has been no snow for NYC and points east. I say no snow for the Tuesday event, other than maybe a coating, for NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 40 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Not yet It’s looking to me like there’s a pretty low ceiling for us city and east-either a weak snow event or a stronger snow to rain or mostly rain event. Nothing to really force a SE track if it does get stronger so if it strengthens beyond a 1-3” type event it would be more NW and rain here because it amps too much. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 A general 1" to perhaps 3" snowfall still appears likely for Philadelphia to Boston. There is a possibility that somewhat more snow could fall in and around the Boston area. There remains some uncertainty, but the guidance has been converging on a solution. WPC Maps: Latest EPS and NBE Data: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 8 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: I am going with the trend is your friend. The trend has been no snow for NYC and points east. I say no snow for the Tuesday event, other than maybe a coating, for NYC. Uh ? The trend is shifting west slightly 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 11 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: Anything to the East? Not liking the trends for MBY 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It’s looking to me like there’s a pretty low ceiling for us city and east-either a weak snow event or a stronger snow to rain or mostly rain event. Nothing to really force a SE track if it does get stronger so if it strengthens beyond a 1-3” type event it would be more NW and rain here because it amps too much. The mean is highest for LI and Southeast Mass 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 287 special? I gotta warm up the Horse and Buggy if so…I got u famFootage from my ring camera earlier on the homestead:. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Where is it going to rain? Some people are ridiculous 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, North and West said: I got u fam Footage from my ring camera earlier on the homestead: . damn you caught me on camera. nice angles 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Where is it going to rain? Some people are ridiculous Seriously There is plenty of cold air around 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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