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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024


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1 minute ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Just wait until the next run, it will be 40 degree rain. GFS has been the only model showing winter storms this winter, for the most part. Just needs a few runs to adjust to reality for that range. 

Hey, I'm like a dog. I go for the fake throw every time!

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13 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I have seen ice storms in March here. Not sure about Triangle but it's not THAT late in the season

Feb 21st has a sun elevation equivalent to October. The sun is just strong, and lower elevations like the triangle have a tough time accruing ice by then unless it is anomalously cold.

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27 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Feb 21st has a sun elevation equivalent to October. The sun is just strong, and lower elevations like the triangle have a tough time accruing ice by then unless it is anomalously cold.

One of the worst ice storms I ever experienced occurred February 27, 2003. I had around 1" of ice accumulation from freezing rain at my location; some other parts of Rockingham County had even more. High temperatures were in the low to mid-60s in the days leading up to the storm, and  the lowest temperature I recorded on the 27th was 28.4.  

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45 minutes ago, Blizzard22 said:

I have never in my life seen ice in Georgia after Valentine's Day.

 Even though you’ve never seen it, it has occurred a number of times in GA even in Mar including 3/2-3/1962 in a good portion of inland SOUTH GA (major storm), light icing to the coast on 3/2/1980 (El Nino) and a major one as late as 3/25/1971 in the Atlanta-Athens areas! There was also major icing even to the coast as late as 2/25/1914 (one of their worst ever)(another El Niño)! So, I wouldn’t at all discount the possibility of ice in GA with this next potential threat.

 

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GFS is proof this doesn't work without the phase. If we can't just get rid of that northern piece alltogther, then we have to get at least a partial phase. Otherwise it hanging out overtop leads to that disjointed look, with one low in the gulf and another in the lakes/Ohio valley wrecking our thermals.

As we already knew from the GEFS this was in the range of possible outcomes. Key will be seeing which scenario the ensembles start to converge around over the next few days.

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3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Once again the GEFS mean and GFS are on different planets. The 0Z GEFS is pretty impressive from NE GA through much of NC.

It's been many moons since I've seen a storm stick around from fantasy land this long.

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If I had to pick a preferred solution it'd definitely be the Euro. It removes the phase from the equation, let's that northern stream energy clear the playing field for a perfectly timed CAD high. A much simpler solution with less bust potential. Too bad there's still so long to go lol

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55 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

The 6z GFS just shows rain with temps way to warm. The CMC and Euro look suppressed and the Euro Control shows a Mountain and Foothills Snowstom.

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk
 

You know what's new, everyday I wake up thinking okay this storm will be the one and it just doesn't work out, this was suppose to be one great winter for a lot of the southeast, just frustrating.  Just about to give up, been so disappointed this season.  

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That northern vort being stretched and strung out over the top will never work.IMG_1050.thumb.png.33c7b07bc954d2b1e9645826c57c7e43.png

A piece of it needs to dig and phase, like the GFS was showing yesterday or it needs to do what the Euro did last night and let the northern piece swing through ahead of our wave. IMG_1051.thumb.png.ce4dbbd5bae85499f5a885a7e2f8c236.png

This lowers heights in front of the storm and let's our CAD high anchor in, and gives the stj wave more room to amplify some. The GFS and Euro are way apart on the timing of the southern wave with the GFS being over 24 hours faster. They may even be keying in on different pieces of energy. Long ways to go...

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