Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[CAPE]

A big difference at h5 can be seen comparing these 2 panels. Not as much NS energy involvement on the 6z run at this point.

 

[yoda]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

If we are already seeing temp issues now...

This is why I like the icon and Canadien. Gives us some breathing room

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Its not like its going to be 25 degrees lol... this is going to be a heavy wet snow if we get the snowstorm with temps likely between 30-33

[Ji]

A big difference at h5 can be seen comparing these 2 panels. Not as much NS energy involvement on the 6z run at this point.

 

The storm sw is also much stronger

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[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

The storm sw is also much stronger

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Not sure about that. There are subtle differences. The 50-50 low is not as strong/consolidated, and a tad further north. The overall evolution and outcome meteorologically is the same, but obv some major differences wrt the outcome we are interested in. I have been planning to take a trip to Canaan sometime in Jan, so this might be the time.

 

 

 

[yoda]

Looks like 06z GEFS is going the offshore route at 168

 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Looks like 06z GEFS is going the offshore route at 168

 

 

[brooklynwx99]

GEFS looks good. stronger vort and better confluence. 250mb jet is more meridional as well

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS, still a lot of  members showing nothing as well.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GEFS, still a lot of  members showing nothing as well.

I would say that's a pretty convincing signal at this lead time

[Benjamn3]

Meanwhile in SW VA we are like. 

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I would say that's a pretty convincing signal at this lead time

Yeah the 6z GEFS is very similar to 0z wrt track, temps, precip. At this point places west of I-95 and esp further west look favored for a mostly or all snow event. Lotta runs to go. We got something legit to track finally.

[Jebman]

I have a hunch, a WAG, that the track is going to end up somewhere in between the west track, and the more east track. After livin' there for 55 years, you kind of tend to get a feel for these things.

Another gut feeling, would have me heading most decisively to western Berkeley County in West Virginia. With a shovel in one hand and a yard stick in the other.

[Bob Chill]

57 minutes ago, yoda said:

I mean the h7 and h85 vort/low pass look good to me... I am guessing its just the strength of the cold air?  Or is it just because its in C VA instead of S VA we lose lol

Track is too close. Look at 850 wind barbs. Southerly flow all the way to VT. Real cold front is north of that where northerlies are smashing into southerlies. Surface flow is due east off the ocean. There is no mechanism to stop warm Atlantic air from wrapping in. Not saying gfs is right at all. Just pointing out the obvious problem for the CP and fall line zone. 

 

How does this get fixed? We need more compression in front. Big amp in Midwest is going to draw in warmth no matter the track.  We need a press. Confluence, surface high feed, something...  

This is where we gotta watch who's rooting for what. North of here wants an amp all day so their "good runs" will be kinda scary here. Our good runs will continue the NE panic. We can all get some snow but I don't like the setup at all for that outcome. Too much thermal risk and it's not even cold leading in. Seasonal at best. 

 

[CAPE]

The advertised 500mb pattern progression continues to look more favorable towards mid month. Hard to nitpick the HL look with a -AO/NAO, and the EPO trending negative. Key features end up in good locations- lower heights in the 50-50 region, an Aleutian low, and a TPV lobe over Hudson underneath the block.

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The advertised 500mb pattern progression continues to look more favorable towards mid month. Hard to nitpick the HL look with a -AO/NAO, and the EPO trending negative. Key features end up in good locations- lower heights in the 50-50 region, an Aleutian low, and a TPV lobe over Hudson underneath the block.

 

When the NH sets up like this, I can't think of a time in the past where it didn't last. Especially during a Nino. Get that burly west based block to link up to the -AO dome of HP and it takes A LOT to break it down. I know u know this. Just adding color commentary with a pretty color chart. Sprawling HP from the Aleutians to the pole to Baffin Bay. Yea, that will work good.... real good... lol

 

ETA: I can envision the -epo ridge extending north and the Aleutian low returning underneath. Big game hunting if that happens. 

[Jebman]

This is definitely gonna be good.

I'm gonna lose a LOT of free time from now on up in here.

NO effin' way I ever get any sleep tonight. I wonder why.

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

When the NH sets up like this, I can't think of a time in the past where it didn't last. Especially during a Nino. Get that burly west based block to link up to the -AO dome of HP and it takes A LOT to break it down. I know u know this. Just adding color commentary with a pretty color chart. Sprawling HP from the Aleutians to the pole to Baffin Bay. Yea, that will work good.... real good... lol

 

ETA: I can envision the -epo ridge extending north and the Aleutian low returning underneath. Big game hunting if that happens. 

I almost posted the GEPS h5 panel instead- at the end of the run it has the NPAC low digging southward closer to the more classic position over the Aleutians, with an amplifying EPO ridge. If this Nino is going to behave like a strong Nino that feature should become more prominent going forward.

[winter_warlock]

I can see myself haveing alot of sleepless nights waiting for the late model runs this coming week

[Terpeast]

Maybe it’s different during a nino, but last year the ensembles had tracks biased too far SE at 5-8 day leads. They eventually corrected to the op tracks. 

We saw the ens move NW with the mean track already. The op is too far NW for a pure snow event along I-95, but NW of the fall line still in the game. 

Let’s root for the 1/4 system to go ape off the coast for a stronger 50/50

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Track is too close. Look at 850 wind barbs. Southerly flow all the way to VT. Real cold front is north of that where northerlies are smashing into southerlies. Surface flow is due east off the ocean. There is no mechanism to stop warm Atlantic air from wrapping in. Not saying gfs is right at all. Just pointing out the obvious problem for the CP and fall line zone. 

 

How does this get fixed? We need more compression in front. Big amp in Midwest is going to draw in warmth no matter the track.  We need a press. Confluence, surface high feed, something...  

This is where we gotta watch who's rooting for what. North of here wants an amp all day so their "good runs" will be kinda scary here. Our good runs will continue the NE panic. We can all get some snow but I don't like the setup at all for that outcome. Too much thermal risk and it's not even cold leading in. Seasonal at best. 

 

People will always fret even at long range but I took one look at your map and my 1st thought was a low is unlikely to be there. It’s just not a path I see them take. I’d say in that setup it either goes flat across NC and further south or it shoots west and then jumps. 

[Bob Chill]

48 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I almost posted the GEPS h5 panel instead- at the end of the run it has the NPAC low digging southward closer to the more classic position over the Aleutians, with an amplifying EPO ridge. If this Nino is going to behave like a strong Nino that feature should become more prominent going forward.

NGL.... it's very thought provoking. Every part of my wx intuition says this blocking episode will run until end of Feb. Maybe longer. 

For those that haven't been around for a long duration block, it doesn't mean we snow a lot. It can still do anything.... rain, dry, blizzard... takes more than a block to snow here. The big positive is *IF* something sets up right, the chance of maximizing is much higher. Blocks wax, wane, and wiggle too. They don't just park. But just having a blocked longwave pattern that fights back against latitude gain can open the door to many more possibilities than quick/progressive flow. 

[Terpeast]

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Maybe it’s different during a nino, but last year the ensembles had tracks biased too far SE at 5-8 day leads. They eventually corrected to the op tracks. 

We saw the ens move NW with the mean track already. The op is too far NW for a pure snow event along I-95, but NW of the fall line still in the game. 

Let’s root for the 1/4 system to go ape off the coast for a stronger 50/50

Also, noticed that the system is slower with less NS interaction. We want it to speed up a bit to catch the best cold air. 

[Bob Chill]

One thing I keep repeatedly thinking about is how March has become a "better" winter month since 2014. On the flip, Dec has become more of a fall month in these parts. Makes sense with ocean temps among other things. What's interesting is the atmosphere still seems to want to run a "normal" winter cycle just later. 09/10 started in early Dec and pretty much quit after Feb 10th. We got missed by a biggie after but for the most part winter ended then. Especially with temps. Gotta wonder if a more typical and classic Nino patten sets up in mid Jan and runs thru mid March (or later) instead of shutting off in Feb like previous similar Ninos. Seasonal and monthly guidance had that idea going much of the fall. Maybe we should all stop caring so much about Dec. Maybe the signals for a good winter come later than usual. Just tossing out ideas. Plenty of time to observe over the coming years. 

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

One thing I keep repeatedly thinking about is how March has become a "better" winter month since 2014. On the flip, Dec has become more of a fall month in these parts. Makes sense with ocean temps among other things. What's interesting is the atmosphere still seems to want to run a "normal" winter cycle just later. 09/10 started in early Dec and pretty much quit after Feb 10th. We got missed by a biggie after but for the most part winter ended then. Especially with temps. Gotta wonder if a more typical and classic Nino patten sets up in mid Jan and runs thru mid March (or later) instead of shutting off in Feb like previous similar Ninos. Seasonal and monthly guidance had that idea going much of the fall. Maybe we should all stop caring so much about Dec. Maybe the signals for a good winter come later than usual. Just tossing out ideas. Plenty of time to observe over the coming years. 

December has never been a big winter month for me growing up here. 2002-2010 was a massive fluke for Dec. Also the cryosphere delays the cold in the beginning while extending it at the end of met winter. 

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

NGL.... it's very thought provoking. Every part of my wx intuition says this blocking episode will run until end of Feb. Maybe longer. 

For those that haven't been around for a long duration block, it doesn't mean we snow a lot. It can still do anything.... rain, dry, blizzard... takes more than a block to snow here. The big positive is *IF* something sets up right, the chance of maximizing is much higher. Blocks wax, wane, and wiggle too. They don't just park. But just having a blocked longwave pattern that fights back against latitude gain can open the door to many more possibilities than quick/progressive flow. 

The advertised look up top towards mid month is getting close to 'that look'. The overall pattern still needs some work. The mid month period would favor NW tracks with that trough position. Get the MJO into the better phases with an extended NPJ and we should see a more Nino-like look on the Pacific side, with the Aleutian low in a better spot and a shift in the ridge position from offshore to the western US. That change, with a HL block in place, would set us up nicely for the latter part of Jan into Feb.

[wxdude64]

I'll two my hat into the 'off a month' group. Seems Everything has wanted to slide a month forward in last 10 years compared to past. May is June, Nov is Dec, March is April....

[winter_warlock]

Sterling has now started to mention the storm for the 7th

 They are in a wait and see mode lol

......

From sterling.....

 

low pressure system in which the track of the low could be to our south and intensify as it approaches the mid-Atlantic Coast. The consensus low pressure system track has the low moving from central North Carolina, across the Tidewater of southeastern Virginia and just offshore of the Delmarva. It is too early to tell how much rainfall, how much snowfall, locations of these types of weather, and the timing of impact. We will need to monitor next weekend`s low pressure system over the early part of this week.

[Bob Chill]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The advertised look up top towards mid month is getting close to 'that look'. The overall pattern still needs some work. The mid month period would favor NW tracks with that trough position. Get the MJO into the better phases with an extended NPJ and we should see a more Nino-like look on the Pacific side, with the Aleutian low in a better spot and a shift in the ridge position from offshore to the western US. That change, with a HL block in place, would set us up nicely for the latter part of Jan into Feb.

100%. This is a crappy mock up but gets the point across. Get the Aleutian low (of any magnitude) to undercut the epo and it opens the door for a Seattle to St Louis track on the NS and a classic split coming into the SW. Either stream can produce individually (NS always dicey lol) but the phase potential lights up. Add in a steep epo and the polar stream joins the party. Get the NS and polar stream to link a few times and the conus will get real cold too as the bowl carves and vodka spills in. 

I can see it plain as fookin' day lol.... but is this the real life, or is it just fantasy? 

 

 

[osfan24]

41 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Maybe it’s different during a nino, but last year the ensembles had tracks biased too far SE at 5-8 day leads. They eventually corrected to the op tracks. 

We saw the ens move NW with the mean track already. The op is too far NW for a pure snow event along I-95, but NW of the fall line still in the game. 

Let’s root for the 1/4 system to go ape off the coast for a stronger 50/50

I remember that well. The ensembles were worthless last year and oddly followed the op. Hopefully, that's not the case this year. Definitely some big hit potential with this one but could be heartbreak as well.

[Bob Chill]

16 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

December has never been a big winter month for me growing up here. 2002-2010 was a massive fluke for Dec. Also the cryosphere delays the cold in the beginning while extending it at the end of met winter. 

It hasn't but it's changed still. We used to use early Dec as a benchmark for understanding how winter is going to break. That been fooling people lately (myself included). Last 7 years or so we usually don't know what we're dealing with until after Dec. We try to know but it hasn't worked like it has in the past based on my observations. We've been getting curveballed A LOT. Even during times that should be more guessable during early winter. Interesting to ponder but might just be chaos.