Hazey Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 The day 4- 7 model period is getting annoying. I feel lately that that is the time frame when s/w's make big jumps around. Ensembles until day 3 at the earliest. Hopefully has a clue by day 2 but not always. Anyway good period coming up next week. Hopefully someone cashes in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, Hazey said: The day 4- 7 model period is getting annoying. I feel lately that that is the time frame when s/w's make big jumps around. Ensembles until day 3 at the earliest. Hopefully has a clue by day 2 but not always. Anyway good period coming up next week. Hopefully someone cashes in. I think the 16th storm is going to be wobbly until after the cutter this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, cleetussnow said: I think the 16th storm is going to be wobbly until after the cutter this weekend. Agreed. Need to get that out of the way then we'll see where we stand. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 49 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I don’t like that the El Niño forcing calmed (relaxed) this month; while El Niño state actually intensified to major territory. I believe that means it is more likely that it makes its biggest appearance yet, as MJO 4,5,6 at end of the month. I noticed a big switch in the AO projections after the 20th - particularly coming from the EPS over night. But it's in all three ens systems. It was more evident in the numerical indexes (long lead), but last night's coverage began better synoptic/spatial layout presentation with a distant +AO hat on the hemisphere. Awesome that the SSW paid so many dividends, huh. What's interesting is the cold-gutted PNA spanning the continent underneath that +AO ... Heights across all of N/A below 60 N, above normal, despite a +PNAP curved structure. I grow tired of explaining these warm oddities about that distant range between the extended and model 'emergent horizon' - perhaps attribution -related. I don't have any compunctions about saying that. We could see utter absurd warm passages of time at any point between the end of the month thru spring that are just so obviously 'different' and weird - despite how people will cloak that eeriness in this mantra about 'this has happened before.' Okay. We've seen this too many times, regardless of whatever package of longer termed air-land-sea index was doing whatever. Obviously, a global warming thing when it's (-)(+) ENSO and either way, February's host 75 F bursts. 70-fuckum-5 in February 4 times in the last 7 or 8 years ... while that ocean temps world over are always above normal, and summer time heat-related deaths are the number one killer all over the planet. That is by definition warming globe. But you see.... there's sub classes of denial that have evolved out of the original narrative. It's kind of like the novel virus theory and pathology... how the pandemic agent strikes a civilization and then given time ... it mutates into a lesser virulent forms? These lesser pernicious types out there are in this compromised head space ...admitting it is real, but are not allowed to talk about it. It's almost a "wokism" thing, I identify by non-binary climate beliefs. Just musing... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 00z Euro verbatim would challenge the CONUS surface pressure record for non-tropical right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, Chrisrotary12 said: 00z Euro verbatim would challenge the CONUS surface pressure record for non-tropical right? Can always start there and go lower if need be. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I noticed a big switch in the AO projections after the 20th - particularly coming from the EPS over night. But it's in all three ens systems. It was more evident in the numerical indexes (long lead), but last night's coverage began better synoptic/spatial layout presentation with a distant +AO hat on the hemisphere. Awesome that the SSW paid so many dividends, huh. What's interesting is the cold-gutted PNA spanning the continent underneath that +AO ... Heights across all of N/A below 60 N, above normal, despite a +PNAP curved structure. I grow tired of explaining these warm oddities about that distant range between the extended and model 'emergent horizon' - perhaps attribution -related. I don't have any compunctions about saying that. We could see utter absurd warm passages of time at any point between the end of the month thru spring that are just so obviously 'different' and weird - despite how people will cloak that eeriness in this mantra about 'this has happened before.' Okay. We've seen this too many times, regardless of whatever package of longer termed air-land-sea index was doing whatever. Obviously, a global warming thing when it's (-)(+) ENSO and either way, February's host 75 F bursts. 70-fuckum-5 in February 4 times in the last 7 or 8 years ... while that ocean temps world over are always above normal, and summer time heat-related deaths are the number one killer all over the planet. That is by definition warming globe. But you see.... there's sub classes of denial that have evolved out of the original narrative. It's kind of like the novel virus theory and pathology... how the pandemic agent strikes a civilization and then given time ... it mutates into a lesser virulent forms? These lesser pernicious types out there are in this compromised head space ...admitting it is real, but are not allowed to talk about it. It's almost a "wokism" thing, I identify by non-binary climate beliefs. Just musing... Does this mean it's going to snow? 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, Layman said: Does this mean it's going to snow? A much more concise explanation is offered up in my signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I noticed a big switch in the AO projections after the 20th - particularly coming from the EPS over night. But it's in all three ens systems. It was more evident in the numerical indexes (long lead), but last night's coverage began better synoptic/spatial layout presentation with a distant +AO hat on the hemisphere. Awesome that the SSW paid so many dividends, huh. What's interesting is the cold-gutted PNA spanning the continent underneath that +AO ... Heights across all of N/A below 60 N, above normal, despite a +PNAP curved structure. I grow tired of explaining these warm oddities about that distant range between the extended and model 'emergent horizon' - perhaps attribution -related. I don't have any compunctions about saying that. We could see utter absurd warm passages of time at any point between the end of the month thru spring that are just so obviously 'different' and weird - despite how people will cloak that eeriness in this mantra about 'this has happened before.' Okay. We've seen this too many times, regardless of whatever package of longer termed air-land-sea index was doing whatever. Obviously, a global warming thing when it's (-)(+) ENSO and either way, February's host 75 F bursts. 70-fuckum-5 in February 4 times in the last 7 or 8 years ... while that ocean temps world over are always above normal, and summer time heat-related deaths are the number one killer all over the planet. That is by definition warming globe. But you see.... there's sub classes of denial that have evolved out of the original narrative. It's kind of like the novel virus theory and pathology... how the pandemic agent strikes a civilization and then given time ... it mutates into a lesser virulent forms? These lesser pernicious types out there are in this compromised head space ...admitting it is real, but are not allowed to talk about it. It's almost a "wokism" thing, I identify by non-binary climate beliefs. Just musing... WinterWolf just woke up… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 13 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: 00z Euro verbatim would challenge the CONUS surface pressure record for non-tropical right? Yeah in an isolated observation that was an interesting deepening rate.. It went from like 980 to 960 to 945 mb in 18 hours. RI at TC range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: A much more concise explanation is offered up in my signature. Smelling and smilin Jan 78 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 It looks to me like the the system from the 20th drives up near Greenland and congeals into a PV, which explains the + flip in the polar domain.....and I mean, at some point I guess the cold will need to be replenished and the pattern resets. I understand why the temp hitting 60 instead of 50 is due to CC (this is not disputed....huge posotive departures are more common), but the sequence itself I don't feel is. I still bet a lot of money that blocking redevelops in February and is paired with a better Pacific than we had in January and certainly February. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It looks to me like the the system from the 20th drives up near Greenland and congeals into a PV, which explains the + flip in the polar domain.....and I mean, at some point I guess the cold will need to be replenished and the pattern resets. I understand why the temp hitting 60 instead of 50 is due to CC, but the sequence itself I don't feel is. I still bet a lot of money that blocking redevelops in February and is paired with a better Pacific than we had in January and certainly February. Looks like West coast ridge developing and +NAO troughing sharpening into eastern Canada to set up Feb 2015. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 We get the blocking with a shitty Pacific and hear "Pacific is king...useless blocking"....then we get a better Pacific and the moment the blocking relaxes its climate change diatribes lol. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Smelling and smilin Jan 78 YES! glad someone else noticed the subsume mechanics going on there. I love that type - I know I mention it often enough but ... it is real and is how/why the top shelf events. There's some subjectivity to that. Like the 18-24" in 7 hour Dec 23 1997 event, which was not forecast like AT ALL... But, we mean the big synoptic history deals. Anyway, it's a long way off but ... the Euro did try to do this yesterday in the range on at least one run, too. It could be we are heading into hemisphere that has some of that tendency in the footprint. However, I see aspect related to too much basal velocity in the flow as neggie factor. interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It looks to me like the the system from the 20th drives up near Greenland and congeals into a PV, which explains the + flip in the polar domain.....and I mean, at some point I guess the cold will need to be replenished and the pattern resets. I understand why the temp hitting 60 instead of 50 is due to CC (this is not disputed....huge posotive departures are more common), but the sequence itself I don't feel is. I still bet a lot of money that blocking redevelops in February and is paired with a better Pacific than we had in January and certainly February. heh... ah, just so's we're clear. I wasn't intending to forecast that? I was just musing - some sardonic overtones. Most of that was just so that I could arrive to the "climate wokism" - I think that's funny. Non-binary climate is great 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, CoastalWx said: Looks like West coast ridge developing and +NAO troughing sharpening into eastern Canada to set up Feb 2015. Yea, I didn't want to go there because the CC monsters would eat me hahha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: heh... ah, just so's we're clear. I wasn't intending to forecast that? I was just musing - some sardonic overtones. Most of that was just so that I could arrive to the "climate wokism" - I think that's funny. Non-binary climate is great You are right, though....those crazy positive departures are becoming the norm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: YES! glad someone else noticed the subsume mechanics going on there. I love that time - I know I mention it often enough but ... it is real and is how/why the top shelf events. There's some subjectivity to that. Like the 18-24" in 7 hour Dec 23 1997 event, which was not forecast like AT ALL... But, we mean the big synoptic history deals. Anyway, it's a long way off but ... the Euro did try to do this yesterday in the range on at least one run, too. It could be we are heading into hemisphere that has some of that tendency in the footprint. However, I see aspect related to too much basal velocity in the flow as neggie factor. interesting Its a January and Feb analog of mine....weeeeeeeee 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I didn't want to go there because the CC monsters would eat me hahha LOL, obviously I am kidding with that analog. Probably will get some sort of blocking in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We get the blocking with a shitty Pacific and hear "Pacific is king...useless blocking"....then we get a better Pacific and the moment the blocking relaxes its climate change diatribes lol. I just scroll past..who cares. Let em all think the sky is falling. So silly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: LOL, obviously I am kidding with that analog. Probably will get some sort of blocking in Feb. I just meant as an example shrouded in hyperbole of how you don't need blocking to be wintry....but it should come back, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I just meant as a example shrouded in hyperbole of how you don't need blocking to be wintry....but it should come back, anyway. Personally I think Atlantic blocking is overrated. Yes, I know it helps with biggies...but just my overall take. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: YES! glad someone else noticed the subsume mechanics going on there. I love that type - I know I mention it often enough but ... it is real and is how/why the top shelf events. There's some subjectivity to that. Like the 18-24" in 7 hour Dec 23 1997 event, which was not forecast like AT ALL... But, we mean the big synoptic history deals. Anyway, it's a long way off but ... the Euro did try to do this yesterday in the range on at least one run, too. It could be we are heading into hemisphere that has some of that tendency in the footprint. However, I see aspect related to too much basal velocity in the flow as neggie factor. interesting Yeah... your current place in Ayer had 21" including 8" during 1 hour. I don't recall it at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Personally I think Atlantic blocking is overrated. Yes, I know it helps with biggies...but just my overall take. Its something you would rather have in your corner because it also provides more margin for error with respect to track, but generally I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, CoastalWx said: Personally I think Atlantic blocking is overrated. Yes, I know it helps with biggies...but just my overall take. 15 had no blocking and there were biggies. There’s never one end all be all smoking gun as we’ve learned. Different things work/can work in different scenarios. But you already know this anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Yeah... your current place in Ayer had 21" including 8" during 1 hours. I don't recall it at all I do....I was a junior in HS just before XMAS break...we were expecting 1-3" and they didn't even dismiss us early. I was doing donuts out in the parking lot with my old '86 cutlass Supreme....haha rearwheel drive FTW. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its something you would rather have in your corner because it also provides more margin for error with respect to track, but generally I agree. 8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: 15 had no blocking and there were biggies. There’s never one end all be all smoking gun as we’ve learned. Different things work/can work in different scenarios. But you already know this anyway. 15 was rare though. That was a gamble. But it speaks well to having a good Pacific. Blocking can work if we can avoid all the cold being pushed out west. Need that piece of the PV to get into SE Canada. I think in Nina's you would want to have more of a -NAO overall vs +NAO for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Personally I think Atlantic blocking is overrated. Yes, I know it helps with biggies...but just my overall take. Yeah been saying this for years actually. It’s not even just anecdotal, either. If we think about H.A.’s statistical approach, which focused on the precipitation distribution/anomalies as they correlate to index mode vs modality ..etc, her conclusions were always that the primary loading pattern is the PNA … The NAO was less correlated. That at minimum argues that blocking down stream is a dubious driver. … NAO -to me - is a wave decay dumpster down stream of the N/A continent interacting with the termination/eastern end of the Pacific R-wave transmission. In other words it’s indicative … not the conductor 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 That 384 hour storm on the GFS looks great. Maybe we can time travel to that date 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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