SnoSki14 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Pattern sucks going forward. Big east based NAO linking up with SE as major trough dogs west. Aka the same crap we've seen for years now. Close the shades 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Pattern sucks going forward. Big east based NAO linking up with SE as major trough dogs west. Aka the same crap we've seen for years now. Close the shades A chance for a big storm sucks ? Go head you can close the shades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 29 minutes ago, MJO812 said: A chance for a big storm sucks ? Go head you can close the shades. Storm on the 10th is getting interesting. Almost transfers to a coastal 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: A chance for a big storm sucks ? Go head you can close the shades. What chance lol? Scratch that there's a good chance of a flooding rainstorm on the 10th. CMC went wild 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The period of the essentially first half of meteorological winter (December 1st - January 15th) in Central Park should be in the top ten warmest of all time and quite possible top five warmest of all time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Pattern sucks going forward. Big east based NAO linking up with SE as major trough dogs west. Aka the same crap we've seen for years now. Close the shades Then. Take. A. Break. From. It. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Generally cool, dry weather will continue through the remainder of the week. A few locations could see a rain or snow shower tomorrow morning. Overall, the first week of January remains in line for somewhat above normal temperatures. A storm could bring measurable snowfall to parts of the region Saturday afternoon into Sunday. There are currently two leading scenarios. The first involves significant snow (6" or more) falling well north and west of an area that includes Philadelphia and New York City. The second involves significant snowfall extending south and east into the area that includes New York City and Philadelphia. The first scenario is currently more likely than the second. The probability of such an outcome has increased over the past 24 hours. Details remain to be worked out. However, this appears to be the kind of storm that could bring a general 1" to perhaps 3" of slushy snow to New York City (lowest amounts in Queens, Brooklyn, and Staten Island and highest amounts in the Bronx) with 3"-6" of snow well north and west of New York City. Afterward, a major storm could bring a heavy windswept rain to much of the region during the middle of next week. The potential exists for a 1"-3" rainfall with locally higher amounts. Temperatures could surge toward or into the 50s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.0°C for the week centered around December 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.00°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The SOI was +0.81 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.127 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January. On January 1 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.959 (RMM). The December 31-adjusted amplitude was 1.894 (RMM). that second storm could also be very windy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Pattern sucks going forward. Big east based NAO linking up with SE as major trough dogs west. Aka the same crap we've seen for years now. Close the shades is it at least going to be sunny most of the time or are we going to see more of the muck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Pattern sucks going forward. Big east based NAO linking up with SE as major trough dogs west. Aka the same crap we've seen for years now. Close the shades You know a lot more than I do, but then why keep watching if it doesn’t suit you?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, North and West said: You know a lot more than I do, but then why keep watching if it doesn’t suit you? . It's not just about snow. I love weather. I'm much more interested in the system next week. Very powerful system likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's not just about snow. I love weather. I'm much more interested in the system next week. Very powerful system likely. Yeah, I agree, I’ll take a beast of a nor’easters (potentially the strongest in a decade) over the 1” of slush this weekend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I am hoping the MJO can find its way over to phase 8 in February since that would be a great pattern for us. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Yeah, I agree, I’ll take a beast of a nor’easters (potentially the strongest in a decade) over the 1” of slush this weekend.. My new sump pump backup battery arrives tomorrow. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 44 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Yeah, I agree, I’ll take a beast of a nor’easters (potentially the strongest in a decade) over the 1” of slush this weekend.. High risk of coastal flooding with new moon. Grounds still saturated from all the rains last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 53 minutes ago, bluewave said: I am hoping the MJO can find its way over to phase 8 in February since that would be a great pattern for us. It's too bad this next storm was JUST too far north, otherwise CPK had a good shot at an above average snowfall winter. Winter Storm Chuck keeps mentioning we are in a decadal RNA pattern. Until that breaks we will need to keep relying on late Jan, February and March to produce. I know Chuck stated decadal, however I think it usually lasts 2 to 3 decades (1970 through 1999), while PNA 1 to 2 decades (2000 through 2018). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Yeah, I agree, I’ll take a beast of a nor’easters (potentially the strongest in a decade) over the 1” of slush this weekend.. thats not a noreaster next week, it's a cutter with a southeast wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, North and West said: My new sump pump backup battery arrives tomorrow. . Good move. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: thats not a noreaster next week, it's a cutter with a southeast wind The cutter is a good thing, helps build/strengthen the NAO block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I like the potential after the 15th with the block moving west as it decays and the ridge out west improves. Definitely some potential 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Good move. Lordy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 11 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Good move. That’s for sure as 2024 picks up right where 2023 left off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I like the potential after the 15th with the block moving west as it decays and the ridge out west improves. Definitely some potential Completely agree. Our second window (this weekend was the first), then as Bluewave alluded to, phase 8 potential for February. All in all though this winter so far has been textbook strong El nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Completely agree. Our second window (this weekend was the first), then as Bluewave alluded to, phase 8 potential for February. All in all though this winter so far has been textbook strong El nino. I wouldn’t rule out something on the front end with the cutters. 6-7 days out lots can change 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Even a little front end snow in the northern areas before rain could make the difference between minor flooding and another disaster. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: It's too bad this next storm was JUST too far north, otherwise CPK had a good shot at an above average snowfall winter. Winter Storm Chuck keeps mentioning we are in a decadal RNA pattern. Until that breaks we will need to keep relying on late Jan, February and March to produce. I know Chuck stated decadal, however I think it usually lasts 2 to 3 decades (1970 through 1999), while PNA 1 to 2 decades (2000 through 2018). We could very well be in an unprecedented climate. I lived through the 70's and 80's, and had some mighty cold winters, very little snow. I would put little faith into previous patterns. We haven't seen anything this extreme; including the general warming up of the northeast due to the weakening of the Labrador/Gulf Stream circulation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 49 minutes ago, Dark Star said: We could very well be in an unprecedented climate. I lived through the 70's and 80's, and had some mighty cold winters, very little snow. I would put little faith into previous patterns. We haven't seen anything this extreme; including the general warming up of the northeast due to the weakening of the Labrador/Gulf Stream circulation... BHO is running around 50 to 1 top 10 warmest to coldest months since 2010 as February 15 remains our greatest outlier month of the last decade or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 17 minutes ago, Dark Star said: We could very well be in an unprecedented climate. I lived through the 70's and 80's, and had some mighty cold winters, very little snow. I would put little faith into previous patterns. We haven't seen anything this extreme; including the general warming up of the northeast due to the weakening of the Labrador/Gulf Stream circulation... Could work out a well, all those suppressed snowstorms of the past may be monster hits now. Also the records we have now are likely a combination of a normal warm pattern (decadal RNA now) and GW. If we get back into a general cooler pattern we can be in decent shape. For me as long as we keep seeing NC, Virginia and the Delmarva get snowstorms like they have been over the past few years we have tread on the tires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Models trending stronger now in p3. I think we get a pna response after the 15 before we enter the warm phases. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 4 hours ago, bluewave said: I am hoping the MJO can find its way over to phase 8 in February since that would be a great pattern for us. February 7th? By the time we feel the effects of that it might be the end of February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: February 7th? By the time we feel the effects of that it might be the end of February No guarantees especially if we stall out in 7 instead preceding to 8. But hoping for at least one solid 8 this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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