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Dec/Jan Medium/Long Range Disco

WinterWxLuvr

By WinterWxLuvr,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill
Bob Chill

When all guidance starts showing compressed heights in the east oriented WSW-ENE.... I get stoked... I'm pretty stoked  These are the upper level height patterns that can produce snow with just ab

psuhoffman
psuhoffman

This would suck    ……if you’re Webb 

stormtracker
stormtracker

Listen, hold off on the storm talk until I return from Mexico on the 2nd.  If you root for a storm and it comes on the 1st, there’s going to be mysterious “server down” messages on the board from like

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Stormchaserchuck1

Stormchaserchuck1

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok let’s come at this a different way. What exactly would you want to see to say “it’s gonna be cold/snowy”? 

Honestly I would like to see the NAO + (as a dominant pattern). I think that will correlate with a -epo/+pna. Something in the global pattern is ticking this way. Otherwise just give me consistency in the models at this point: an Aleutian low, and Natural Gas not trading as low as $2.50 could help.  

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Honestly I would like to see the NAO +. I think that will correlate with a -epo/+pna. Something in the global pattern is ticking this way. Otherwise just give me consistency in the models at this point, an Aleutian low, and Natural Gas not trading as low as $2.50 could help.  

 

7B02A9F2-D0BA-402D-8163-BC03C3434988.gif

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brooklynwx99

brooklynwx99

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Just looked at the models today. Not much change, I like what I'm seeing. I'm sticking with my outlook. 

I have no idea what the NYC subforum is so down about. They should be excited. Reading them, you'd think we're in a nina -PNA +NAO torch.

literally the most pessimistic takes possible

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Honestly I would like to see the NAO + (as a dominant pattern). I think that will correlate with a -epo/+pna. Something in the global pattern is ticking this way. Otherwise just give me consistency in the models at this point, an Aleutian low, and Natural Gas not trading as low as $2.50 could help.  

Ok let me rephrase that. A -EPO/+PNA is awesome but also incredibly rare.  Ya it would be nice but in the last 50 years there’s only been 4 years where that was a predominant feature. 1994, 2003, 2014 and 2015.  And in a -PDO that combo is almost impossible to sustain. 
 

So short of waiting for that unicorn once every 15 years type combo…what would you want to see to get a cold/snowy winter?  

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Stormchaserchuck1

Stormchaserchuck1

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

So short of waiting for that unicorn once every 15 years type combo…what would you want to see to get a cold/snowy winter?  

Heavy cloud thickness, snow days, albeit flurries. A sustained, +PNA is really the key we need to unlock that imo. We just yesterday had a +594dm ridge in the north Atlantic near Nova Scotia. The Hadley Cell is in an expansion phase right now, this is hooking up with -NAO at times even. I think we have trended in the last few years toward better cloud patterns, when the snowstorms were melting so fast early in the 2000s, that was a sign we were not heading in the right direction.   I'm not ignoring how much of a +EPO December this is though: History says it carries forward at a 0.3 correlation. 

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SnowLover22

SnowLover22

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Heavy cloud thickness, snow days, albeit flurries. A sustained, +PNA is really the key we need to unlock that imo. We just yesterday had a +594dm ridge in the north Atlantic near Nova Scotia. The Hadley Cell is in an expansion phase right now, this is hooking up with -NAO at times even. I think we have trended in the last few years toward better cloud patterns, when the snowstorms were melting so fast early in the 2000s, that was a sign we were not heading in the right direction.  I'm not ignoring how much of a +EPO December this is though: History says it carries forward at a 0.3 correlation. 

Have you actually done your own research/collect data to back that up? That there is a small correlation?

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Stormchaserchuck1

Stormchaserchuck1

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

Have you actually done your own research/collect data to back that up? That there is a small correlation?

Yes, I found the 0.3 on CDC monthly correlation composites, then came up with 30 individual EPO-analogs (since 1948), and 30 individual "Warm US/Upper Midwest Dec analogs" (since 1948):

which back it up, at least for January. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Just looked at the models today. Not much change, I like what I'm seeing. I'm sticking with my outlook. 

I have no idea what the NYC subforum is so down about. They should be excited. Reading them, you'd think we're in a nina -PNA +NAO torch.

 

27 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

literally the most pessimistic takes possible

Just my 2 cents…I have fellow snow weenie friends from NYC.  From 2003-2018 NYC had 40”+ 9 times in 16 years. And several of the years they missed were still in the 30s.  This resulted in them thinking anything less than 40” sucks. 
 

The second factor is the climo for a Nino isn’t as great for them. The chances to exceed climo snowfall decreases as you head north.   Years like 2016, 1987 and 1965 weren’t as good for NYC as here, especially wrt climo and their expectations. Frankly even 1958 and 2010 weren’t as good there when you factor climo. And don’t shoot the messenger but two of my NYC friends remember 2010 as mostly frustrating because they got 40” but places south of them got way more and it “ruined” it for them. 
 

Combine their inflated expectations compared to us with the fact even if we get what I expect and a period that rivals an average of Jan/Feb 1958,1965,1987,2010,2016 that wouldn’t be as good for them…and you get their pessimism towards the current situation. 
 

Frankly what they root for is way different.  They want an east based -QBO nina. Those are cold and from NYC north very snowy. They suck for us!  But that’s what they want.  Even if we get a snowier Nino they don’t appreciate them as much as they are warmer, nyc won’t hold snowpack which is something they care about. We don’t since it’s virtually impossible here. And places south of them tend to get more which annoys them to no end because NYC is the grandfather creator of snow and they deserve to get the most from every storm or else it’s not fair. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Heavy cloud thickness, snow days, albeit flurries. A sustained, +PNA is really the key we need to unlock that imo. We just yesterday had a +594dm ridge in the north Atlantic near Nova Scotia. The Hadley Cell is in an expansion phase right now, this is hooking up with -NAO at times even. I think we have trended in the last few years toward better cloud patterns, when the snowstorms were melting so fast early in the 2000s, that was a sign we were not heading in the right direction.  I'm not ignoring how much of a +EPO December this is though: History says it carries forward at a 0.3 correlation. 

What you’re basically saying then is we can’t get a snowy winter in a -PDO anymore. This winter is a good test case for that hypothesis. 

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Stormchaserchuck1

Stormchaserchuck1

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What you’re basically saying then is we can’t get a snowy winter in a -PDO anymore. This winter is a good test case for that hypothesis. 

I don't like blaming things on SSTs, water is much slower than air. But there is something happening globally that is giving us more -PNA conditions right now, no doubt.  I think it might be slightly tied into the NAO. Just thinking out loud. 

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Terpeast

Terpeast

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Just my 2 cents…I have fellow snow weenie friends from NYC.  From 2003-2018 NYC had 40”+ 9 times in 16 years. And several of the years they missed were still in the 30s.  This resulted in them thinking anything less than 40” sucks. 
 

The second factor is the climo for a Nino isn’t as great for them. The chances to exceed climo snowfall decreases as you head north.   Years like 2016, 1987 and 1965 weren’t as good for NYC as here, especially wrt climo and their expectations. Frankly even 1958 and 2010 weren’t as good there when you factor climo. And don’t shoot the messenger but two of my NYC friends remember 2010 as mostly frustrating because they got 40” but places south of them got way more and it “ruined” it for them. 
 

Combine their inflated expectations compared to us with the fact even if we get what I expect and a period that rivals an average of Jan/Feb 1958,1965,1987,2010,2016 that wouldn’t be as good for them…and you get their pessimism towards the current situation. 
 

Frankly what they root for is way different.  They want an east based -QBO nina. Those are cold and from NYC north very snowy. They suck for us!  But that’s what they want.  Even if we get a snowier Nino they don’t appreciate them as much as they are warmer, nyc won’t hold snowpack which is something they care about. We don’t since it’s virtually impossible here. And places south of them tend to get more which annoys them to no end because NYC is the grandfather creator of snow and they deserve to get the most from every storm or else it’s not fair. 

Ya, you're right, that makes sense. Even on my own temp outlook map, I have NYC north under much warmer anomalies than I do for us here.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I don't like blaming things on SSTs, water is much heavier than air. But there is something happening globally that is giving us more -PNA conditions right now, no doubt.  I think it might be slightly tied into the NAO. Just thinking out loud. 

Correlation isn’t causation. I highly doubt the -pna is causing a -nao.  And a -nao causing a -pna is almost impossibly from a wave physics standpoint.  What’s likely going on is random but a function of the fact the base state has been a -pna so odds greatly favor a -pna regardless of the nao state. We had a -pna during most +nao periods also. And those were even warmer than the -nao-pna periods!  
 

The fact a +pna+nao has been colder than a -pna-nao lately is also related to the warmer pac and the fact we’ve been in a Nina base state which has a much more hostile -pna effect on the eastern US than a Nino. Note in 2019 we had a -pna also but it wasn’t as bad. Yea it sucked compared to our expectations for a Nino but the reality was colder/snowier than the other -pna dominant years recently. The weak Nino was unable to completely mitigate the pac that year but it has some effect. 
 

But I do think there is some truth to your comment wrt the expended Hadley cell and mid lat ridges linking with high lat ridges lately.
 

Here’s my alternative conclusion. I do think what we’ve proven the last 7 years is during a hostile -pdo cycle a Nina and likely a neutral enso (which frankly weren’t great during previous -pdo cycles but could be ok) are now mostly a lost cause and the best we can do is hope if we get lucky we fluke into a few snows and avoid a total complete 2020/2023 type fail. But what we haven’t proven is whether a Nino is also a fail. During previous -pdos ninos we’re still extremely snowy. I’m betting the split flow and stronger stj will limit the ability for a full latitude trough to dig out west and for a ridge to go nuts in the east. I think a Nino can still have the canonical response. If it doesn’t as I’ve said it’s time to pack it in wrt expecting a truly snowy winter, until the PDO phase flips again, whenever that is. 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted

HH GEFS suggests the wave for around Jan 2nd is more impressive at the upper levels than the surface, and it further strengthens as it moves into the NA, becomes a 50-50 low and helps build heights in the NAO space. Meanwhile here comes the next shortwave moving eastward in the gulf coast states with developing surface low pressure for the possible east coast storm for around the 6th.

1704369600-HLDsLH5rIMU.png

1704369600-f9hOMyG23jU.png

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brooklynwx99

brooklynwx99

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, CAPE said:

HH GEFS suggests the wave for around Jan 2nd is more impressive at the upper levels than the surface, and it further strengthens as it moves into the NA, becomes a 50-50 low and helps build heights in the NAO space. Meanwhile here comes the next shortwave moving eastward in the gulf coast states with developing surface low pressure for the possible east coast storm for around the 6th.

1704369600-HLDsLH5rIMU.png

1704369600-f9hOMyG23jU.png

man, that MSLP is classic stuff

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