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Winter 2023/24 Short Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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We have tomorrow evening-Thursday evening f-gen banding to contend with and then much of the guidance except for the GFS looks pretty interesting for high ratio fluff Thursday night into Friday morning with lake enhancement potential into NE IL and NW IN.



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Chicago NWS

The models and their ensembles are coming into better agreement
with a period of snow to spread across the area Thursday night
into Friday morning. While there isn`t much qpf, perhaps no more
than 0.1 to 0.15 of an inch, it will be so cold that snow ratios
of 15:1 to perhaps 20:1 are likely, allowing for a fluffy snow.
Given these trends, have bumped up pops to categorical with at
least a few inches of snow possible across the entire area. Given
how cold both the ground and air temperatures will be, the snow
will quickly accumulate. Winds will shift to the northwest as
this snow is ending and increase and gust, possibly into the 25-30
mph range. So if we do get a few inches of new fluffy snow,
blowing/low drifting snow will be possible.
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Anecdotally, I've found it's hard for the globals sometimes to pick up on significant lake-effect signals and both GFS and Euro are spitting out 10+ inches in the Porter/LaPorte County areas for Firday. When it gets into range, the HRRR is gonna spit out like 30" totals if the band stays somewhat stationary lol

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Are there any reliable CAMS that can be used to forecast the lake effect on Friday? It seems like all of the American suite are poorly regarded. It's two days out, so this is probably far too early to get into those specifics.  
I think while the HRRR is typically too aggressive and too far west, the 3km NAMnest can fairly decent for lake effect. The WRF-ARW and NSSL-WRF are worth a look too when they come into range, via Pivotal, Tropical Tidbits, or HREF page. Finally, the 2.5 km HRDPS (Canadian) may be worth a look when it comes into range, via WxBell or Tidbits.



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18 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I think while the HRRR is typically too aggressive and too far west, the 3km NAMnest can fairly decent for lake effect. The WRF-ARW and NSSL-WRF are worth a look too when they come into range, via Pivotal, Tropical Tidbits, or HREF page. Finally, the 2.5 km HRDPS (Canadian) may be worth a look too when it comes into range.

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Thanks!  Very much appreciated.  I'm in East Chicago, just across the line, so I'm cautiously optimistic regarding the lake effect.  

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I almost think these two waves are being underplayed for the Toledo area. I think 2-4" with the energy rotating around the ULL tomorrow is a solid bet along the turnpike followed by 3-5" with such high snow ratios and a relatively strong clipper. May be best to put an advisory in place as 4-8" of fine powder over the course of 48 hours is going to be relatively impactful, especially from a blowing & drifting perspective

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