Birds~69 Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 5 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Well the line ended up being virga with a slight uptick in humidity but no visible flakes. Temp still 35 with dp 31. Had some flakes around 5:30am...nothing major, not even a car topper. 33F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 Woke up with a dusting of snow on the grass. It’s almost gone already. I still haven’t seen a single flake of snow actually falling this winter as I was in Europe during the first week in December and I woke up too late to see it the other two times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 After this morning's coating of snow today should see temps struggling to escape the 30's across most areas. The week leading up to Christmas Day should be near to a bit below normal temperature wise for much of the week before rising to well above normal (normal highs near 40 degrees) with highs in the upper 40's by Christmas Day. Records for today: High 62 (1929) / Low +1 (1951) / Rain 1.30" (1934) / Snow 15.0" (2009). That snowstorm in 2009 helped deliver 1 of the only 2 White Christmases (other 2012) we have seen in Chester County in the last 14 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 zilcho snow in macungie. Creek still flooded. Again, no artic air until mid january means little chance of snow on the ground for more than 3 days anyway. Drenching rain , flurries, brief cold warm up and then drenching rain again. Typical Tn Valley weather we are having above the mason dixon line. I will go out and say our first big 3-5 inch accumulating snow in our area will be with associated with clipper if we even get one before the first week in January. Simply no arctic air to intrude in these Nor'easters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 by the way, the LR GFS keeps kicking any potential weather pattern change into the second week of January since before Thanksgiving . I have given up any hope of cold air coming our way. When the PAC jet is raging, LR models go literally to shit and you can only rely on 3-5 day models for any pattern changes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 After the pattern shift next week the Euro Ens models show that it should remain below normal across our areas for much of January. Fake news?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 GEFS ....Fake News??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 I thought I would post an update on our streak of days since our last 1" snowfall. Through today it has now been 647 days or since March 12, 2022 that we last recorded 1" of snow here in East Nantmeal Twp. If we can get through January 3, 2024 without recording that much snow we will set a new record of 662 days without an inch of daily snowfall. However, for you snow lovers we will not be setting snow futility records for absolutely no measurable snow. That record will remain at the 661 days between February 23, 1972 and December 16, 1973. During that timeframe we recorded no measurable snow at all. Only trace amounts were recorded 2 times. By contrast since our last 1" snowfall here in East Nantmeal we have actually recorded measurable snow (greater than 0.25") on 9 different days. Including three such days already this season for a whopping total of 4.6" of snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 6 hours ago, Birds~69 said: Had some flakes around 5:30am...nothing major, not even a car topper. 33F I missed that..likely because of the TIME it occurred Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 1 hour ago, RedSky said: I missed that..likely because of the TIME it occurred Seems like any event these days happens late night/overnight/early morning. My sleeping pattern is screwed up so it feels like I'm up 24/7 and catch any event. Listen to Ferris... 35F/Breezy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 6 hours ago, Albedoman said: by the way, the LR GFS keeps kicking any potential weather pattern change into the second week of January since before Thanksgiving . I have given up any hope of cold air coming our way. When the PAC jet is raging, LR models go literally to shit and you can only rely on 3-5 day models for any pattern changes. I am not the only one saying this either ------below is also from the respected meteorologist from the Pit. central PA forum ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ I definitely like the look of the pattern from a 500mb standpoint with the below average heights over the southern US with above in Canada, eventually progged to center west of Hudson Bay in central (and then western) Canada . We’ll eventually score something if we continue to maintain that suppressed storm track look, which is generally shown across the guidance. My big problem for the time being is temps. It’s going to rear it’s ugly head again with the storm next week that has been pretty consistently on guidance in that Dec 27-28ish period. Gonna try to cut but it looks like it’s going to be forced to reform on the coast. If say today’s 12z GFS scenario played out there’s no decent antecedent cold air in place with the initial low trying to drive well west and the coastal beginning to form and it’s too far displaced N for the northeasterly flow of the coastal to draw it down (similar to what just happened). That storm looks to be a part of the overall pattern reshuffle but I don’t think we’re going to have a snow threat out of it, certainly not in the Sus Valley but probably not in this part of PA either. Notably above average temps in Canada and X amount of the Northern US depending on the flavor of longer range model guidance (weeklies, GEFS extended) has been a constant theme. As such I don’t expect a big time arctic air intrusion probably thru at least mid month Jan. Not that we need it, but the big thing that you can see now in regular ensemble guidance is the 500 ridging shifting to western Canada by about New Years. That would at least ensure airmass source directed from Canada and not the Pac, which should get us cold enough to pair up with a storm track which has honestly been pretty favorable for us this season so far. paweather, Mount Joy Snowman, canderson and 1 other 4 Quote Michael Glunt PSU class of '10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 Lows this morning were still a couple degrees above normal with widespread mid to upper 20's across the county. We should see continued dry weather with near normal temperatures today a little below normal tomorrow before a nice warming trend through Christmas. Temps by Christmas Day should be in the upper 40's - normal high is about 39 degrees. Next rain chances look to be Christmas Night. Records for today: High 62 (1895) / Low +1 (1942) / Rain 2.29"(1957) / Snow 8.8" (1966) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 I hope all of you enjoy the last day of Fall as winter begins this evening at 10:27pm. Great early winter weather continues right through Christmas day with only the next couple days running near to below normal temperatures. Well above normal temps by Christmas day with readings near 50 degrees. There is a slight chance of some snow or rain showers before dawn on Saturday. Our next solid chance of rain will be on Tuesday the 26th. Records for today: High 62 (1971) / Low 1 below (1942) / Rain 1.56" (1902) / Snow 2.0" (1959) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 Droolworthy setup. Nice pattern developing at least towards end of Dec early Jan. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Droolworthy setup. Nice pattern developing at least towards end of Dec early Jan. The Wiggum rule criteria will be close to being met as well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 21, 2023 Author Share Posted December 21, 2023 Only 372 hours out! The big ones are sniffed out early 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 11 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Only 372 hours out! The big ones are sniffed out early Lock it in. What could possibly go wrong? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 Happy Winter Solstice! Longer days from here til June. @ChescoWxhow many weeks til spring training?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 In case this winter is a ratter, only 275 days until Fall 2024. Although I see other forums have already cancelled next winter due to a raging Niña, so only 640 days until Fall 2025. Patience! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 I have been worried about rain drought earlier in the summer but this snow drought is killing us for groundwater recharge next spring. I really hope the pattern changes by mid january. I am afraid the past two weeks of heavy rain maybe the only saving grace for groundwater recharge. The snow cover map below is the worst areal coverage that I have seen at Christmas for snow cover . The upper midwest is in serious trouble with even Minneapolis to Milwaukee with no snow on the ground . It will take one hell of an arctic front - 20-30 degree drop for 3-5 days to break this pattern that we are in. I do not see that happening in the next two weeks as each model run keep kicking the can down the road for even a small snow event for our area let alone arctic air intrusion. http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map_only.php?var=ssm_depth&min_x=-125.0&min_y=24.0&max_x=-67.0&max_y=53.0&bgvar=dem&shdvar=shading&title=1&width=650&height=402&font=0&lbl=m&palette=0&h_o=0&metric=0&snap=1&o9=1&o12=0&o13=0 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 12 hours ago, JTA66 said: In case this winter is a ratter, only 275 days until Fall 2024. Although I see other forums have already cancelled next winter due to a raging Niña, so only 640 days until Fall 2025. Patience! I saw an enso super extended product that has a sustained Nina mid 2024 thru 2027...so we could be in serious trouble if we don't cash in during this Nino. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I saw an enso super extended product that has a sustained Nina mid 2024 thru 2027...so we could be in serious trouble if we don't cash in during this Nino. If accurate, it could just be a natural response to cool global oceans. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: If accurate, it could just be a natural response to cool global oceans. Where are the under-sea volcanoes when we need them?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 18 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Happy Winter Solstice! Longer days from here til June. @ChescoWxhow many weeks til spring training?? Steve, I am counting it down!! First Grapefruit league game just 2 months from Christmas Day!!! Go Phillies!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 A mostly cloudy but dry day today with temps struggling to get much above the mid 30's in many spots across the county. Temperatures tonight will again drop below freezing....but they looks to be the last below freezing temperatures for almost a week. The upcoming week looks mild but nowhere near record warm levels we could see highs in the low 50 from Christmas Day through Wednesday. A couple showers are possible Christmas Eve morning with a greater rain event likely by Tuesday into Wednesday. Much colder weather looks to arrive in time for New Years Eve. Records for today: High 64.7 (2013) / Low -1 (1960) / Rain 1.63" (1983) / Snow 5.8" (1908) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 December 29 and this is where we are? What does it take anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: December 29 and this is where we are? What does it take anymore? Op at range. But yeah, rain all the way up to the Poconos?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 22, 2023 Author Share Posted December 22, 2023 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: December 29 and this is where we are? What does it take anymore? surface temps are like in the lower 40's that's why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 10 minutes ago, The Iceman said: surface temps are like in the lower 40's that's why. I saw that...BL torched. You would still think flakes somewhere in E PA even if white rain. Thicknesses are like 526 ffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 12 minutes ago, The Iceman said: surface temps are like in the lower 40's that's why. A couple Ens members have legit hits with several members having snow TV at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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