Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion


The Iceman
 Share

Recommended Posts

After this morning's coating of snow today should see temps struggling to escape the 30's across most areas. The week leading up to Christmas Day should be near to a bit below normal temperature wise for much of the week before rising to well above normal (normal highs near 40 degrees) with highs in the upper 40's by Christmas Day.
Records for today: High 62 (1929) / Low +1 (1951) / Rain 1.30" (1934) / Snow 15.0" (2009). That snowstorm in 2009 helped deliver 1 of the only 2 White Christmases (other 2012) we have seen in Chester County in the last 14 years.
image.png.041087e3d32bbdd415fbc21e65c7462a.png
Link to comment
Share on other sites

zilcho snow in macungie. Creek still flooded. Again, no artic air until mid january means little chance of snow on the ground for more than 3 days anyway. Drenching rain , flurries, brief cold warm up and  then drenching rain again. Typical Tn Valley weather we are having above the mason dixon line.  I will go out and say our first big 3-5 inch accumulating snow in our area will be with associated with  clipper if we even get one before the first week in January.  Simply no arctic air to intrude in these Nor'easters

Link to comment
Share on other sites

by the way, the LR GFS keeps kicking any potential weather pattern change into the second week of January since before Thanksgiving . I have given up any hope of cold air coming our way. When the PAC jet is raging, LR models go literally to shit and you can only rely on 3-5 day models for any pattern changes.

 

  • Weenie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I thought I would post an update on our streak of days since our last 1" snowfall. Through today it has now been 647 days or since March 12, 2022 that we last recorded 1" of snow here in East Nantmeal Twp. If we can get through January 3, 2024 without recording that much snow we will set a new record of 662 days without an inch of daily snowfall. However, for you snow lovers we will not be setting snow futility records for absolutely no measurable snow. That record will remain at the 661 days between February 23, 1972 and December 16, 1973. During that timeframe we recorded no measurable snow at all. Only trace amounts were recorded 2 times. By contrast since our last 1" snowfall here in East Nantmeal we have actually recorded measurable snow (greater than 0.25") on 9 different days. Including three such days already this season for a whopping total of 4.6" of snow!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Albedoman said:

by the way, the LR GFS keeps kicking any potential weather pattern change into the second week of January since before Thanksgiving . I have given up any hope of cold air coming our way. When the PAC jet is raging, LR models go literally to shit and you can only rely on 3-5 day models for any pattern changes.

 

I am not the only one saying this either  ------below is also from the respected meteorologist from the Pit. central PA  forum 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I definitely like the look of the pattern from a 500mb standpoint with the below average heights over the southern US with above in Canada, eventually progged to center west of Hudson Bay in central (and then western) Canada . We’ll eventually score something if we continue to maintain that suppressed storm track look, which is generally shown across the guidance. 

My big problem for the time being is temps. It’s going to rear it’s ugly head again with the storm next week that has been pretty consistently on guidance in that Dec 27-28ish period. Gonna try to cut but it looks like it’s going to be forced to reform on the coast. If say today’s 12z GFS scenario played out there’s no decent antecedent cold air in place with the initial low trying to drive well west and the coastal beginning to form and it’s too far displaced N for the northeasterly flow of the coastal to draw it down (similar to what just happened). That storm looks to be a part of the overall pattern reshuffle but I don’t think we’re going to have a snow threat out of it, certainly not in the Sus Valley but probably not in this part of PA either. 

Notably above average temps in Canada and X amount of the Northern US depending on the flavor of longer range model guidance (weeklies, GEFS extended) has been a constant theme. As such I don’t expect a big time arctic air intrusion probably thru at least mid month Jan. Not that we need it, but the big thing that you can see now in regular ensemble guidance is the 500 ridging shifting to western Canada by about New Years. That would at least ensure airmass source directed from Canada and not the Pac, which should get us cold enough to pair up with a storm track which has honestly been pretty favorable for us this season so far. 

 

Michael Glunt
PSU class of '10

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lows this morning were still a couple degrees above normal with widespread mid to upper 20's across the county. We should see continued dry weather with near normal temperatures today a little below normal tomorrow before a nice warming trend through Christmas. Temps by Christmas Day should be in the upper 40's - normal high is about 39 degrees. Next rain chances look to be Christmas Night.
Records for today: High 62 (1895) / Low +1 (1942) / Rain 2.29"(1957) / Snow 8.8" (1966)
image.png.06d018946088c6a45b2f047fc3e61d45.png
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I hope all of you enjoy the last day of Fall as winter begins this evening at 10:27pm. Great early winter weather continues right through Christmas day with only the next couple days running near to below normal temperatures. Well above normal temps by Christmas day with readings near 50 degrees. There is a slight chance of some snow or rain showers before dawn on Saturday. Our next solid chance of rain will be on Tuesday the 26th.
Records for today: High 62 (1971) / Low 1 below (1942) / Rain 1.56" (1902) / Snow 2.0" (1959)
image.png.3f4b31191c81bc9bf8757cd5bf724666.png
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have been worried about rain drought earlier in the summer but this snow drought is killing us for groundwater recharge next spring. I really hope the pattern changes by mid january. I am afraid the past two weeks of heavy rain maybe the only saving grace for groundwater recharge. The snow cover map below is the worst areal coverage that I have seen at Christmas for snow cover . The upper midwest is in serious trouble with even Minneapolis to Milwaukee  with no snow on the ground . It will take one hell of an arctic front - 20-30 degree drop for 3-5 days to break this pattern that we are in. I do not see that happening in the next two weeks as each model run keep kicking the can down the road for even a small snow event for our area let alone arctic air intrusion. 

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map_only.php?var=ssm_depth&min_x=-125.0&min_y=24.0&max_x=-67.0&max_y=53.0&bgvar=dem&shdvar=shading&title=1&width=650&height=402&font=0&lbl=m&palette=0&h_o=0&metric=0&snap=1&o9=1&o12=0&o13=0

  • Confused 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, JTA66 said:

In case this winter is a ratter, only 275 days until Fall 2024.

Although I see other forums have already cancelled next winter due to a raging Niña, so only 640 days until Fall 2025.

Patience! 

I saw an enso super extended product that has a sustained Nina mid 2024 thru 2027...so we could be in serious trouble if we don't cash in during this Nino. 

  • Confused 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

A mostly cloudy but dry day today with temps struggling to get much above the mid 30's in many spots across the county. Temperatures tonight will again drop below freezing....but they looks to be the last below freezing temperatures for almost a week. The upcoming week looks mild but nowhere near record warm levels we could see highs in the low 50 from Christmas Day through Wednesday. A couple showers are possible Christmas Eve morning with a greater rain event likely by Tuesday into Wednesday. Much colder weather looks to arrive in time for New Years Eve.
Records for today: High 64.7 (2013) / Low -1 (1960) / Rain 1.63" (1983) / Snow 5.8" (1908)
image.png.de3c9a468e81c7ae42181a7c1c57af47.png
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...