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Central PA Winter 23/24


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8 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Wow. Fucking wow.

"I'll tell you when it's time to sharpen the blade, so that when that first flake falls, you'll know it's time to stop sharpening and start dulling that blade."

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

Reading this in a vacuum, one might think that being a snowplow driver gives one an extra early lead time on snow rumors. 

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The compaction of the shield is a tough one to know until very close to gametime. I expect an extremely intense band on the NW edge given this storms structure and some subsidence with the N/S wave pressing down on our low, which will be deepening pretty explosively. A 988 over the chesapeake bay in this set up is going to produce some serious rates and possible thunder snow. The tight shield if it verifies is just another point to believe this would fall extremely heavily in the snow zone. 

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4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Just finishing up at this point.   One more compaction or slight shift south and  Blizz misses a good bit of the Blizz storm.  Crazy. 

image.thumb.png.c6d6ca82c50b9e100b17e76b069997ce.png

 

Man oh man, if that is close to the final result CTP's map is going to need some major adjustments.  I think this one is really throwing the NWS forecasters for a loop.  These southern shifts have been something to behold.  Great for those of us down here in Amish land though!

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2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

The compaction of the shield is a tough one to know until very close to gametime. I expect an extremely intense band on the NW edge given this storms structure and some subsidence with the N/S wave pressing down on our low, which will be deepening pretty explosively. A 988 over the chesapeake bay in this set up is going to produce some serious rates and possible thunder snow. The tight shield if it verifies is just another point to believe this would fall extremely heavily in the snow zone. 

To your point, there likely will be a 20-30 mile wide band from SW to NE that will be the real show with high QPF and intense snowfall rates.  Where that band sets up determines who gets 6-12” in 6 hours.  Locations on the edges of this band will get robbed as the intense upward motion will cause surrounding subsidence and either light precip rates to the north of it, and a rain/snow mix to its south. 

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9 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Man oh man, if that is close to the final result CTP's map is going to need some major adjustments.  I think this one is really throwing the NWS forecasters for a loop.  These southern shifts have been something to behold.  Great for those of us down here in Amish land though!

On the current NWS Zones, the counties that need a Warning per the HRRR do not have it and many that have it, do not need it.   Latest AFD has the words LSV and crosshairs near each other. 

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Just now, canderson said:

What a mess of a system. One saving grace is roads I don't think will be too horrible (I mean, they are PA roads so they're horrible on a 75 degree June day) but just a slushy mess. 

Most models have temps getting into or near the 40's for all of the southern half of PA tomorrow.   Once the snow stops, roads will melt fast IMO. 

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Most models have temps getting into or near the 40's for all of the southern half of PA tomorrow.   Once the snow stops, roads will melt fast IMO. 

Roads are pretty warm already so for them to get snow it'll have to puke for a while. Which it might, but once it slows down the melt will be very fast. It's 51 at my house right now. 

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From DT This is a very dynamic and  changing situation   -  a difficult forecast. Over the last 36 hours all of the models have come significantly further to the South with the track of the LOW  which means that the heavy snow band which originally was supposed to be up in northeast PA /  the Hudson Valley of New York/ and interior New England is now shifted to the south.

But the new afternoon data coming in here around 3pm  --  shows that once again the European model is going to end up being correct.   the 18z NAM and 18z HRRR  -  these are short range intermediate models that come out of 2-3PM  have now dramatically cut their snow totals and have shoved the precipitation further to the South and show a  much much weaker system. 

If  it sounds like I am uncertain it is  because I am. And right now every single meteorologist in the NE usa is playing a game of   WTF  is going on? .  NWS  has a HUGE  amounts of snow in  southeast NY and southern New England as does  Accuwx and  TWC.  We are all  playing catch up to this constantly changing and weakening system.  Normally when you get this closer to an event the models come to good agreement. Instead the data is going in all sorts of different directions only 18  hours before the event

Screenshot_20240212-152924_Facebook.jpg

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4 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

From DT This is a very dynamic and  changing situation   -  a difficult forecast. Over the last 36 hours all of the models have come significantly further to the South with the track of the LOW  which means that the heavy snow band which originally was supposed to be up in northeast PA /  the Hudson Valley of New York/ and interior New England is now shifted to the south.

But the new afternoon data coming in here around 3pm  --  shows that once again the European model is going to end up being correct.   the 18z NAM and 18z HRRR  -  these are short range intermediate models that come out of 2-3PM  have now dramatically cut their snow totals and have shoved the precipitation further to the South and show a  much much weaker system. 

If  it sounds like I am uncertain it is  because I am. And right now every single meteorologist in the NE usa is playing a game of   WTF  is going on? .  NWS  has a HUGE  amounts of snow in  southeast NY and southern New England as does  Accuwx and  TWC.  We are all  playing catch up to this constantly changing and weakening system.  Normally when you get this closer to an event the models come to good agreement. Instead the data is going in all sorts of different directions only 18  hours before the event

Screenshot_20240212-152924_Facebook.jpg

Euro wins again-DT

 

That is actually very well written compared to usual comments.  

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Euro wins again-DT

 

That is actually very well written compared to usual comments.  

The Euro may be correct on a more southern track but I wouldnt be crowning it victor as long as the HRRR keeps pushing heavy QPF up into our area.  The Euro has basically half the QPF as the HRRR

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