Blizzard of 93 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Good news too is the Canadian also has the 7th storm, but to a lesser extent than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Long way to go, but I would gladly sign now!My flight home is toast, haha Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 I’m very drunk and just screamed about that gfs prob waking up half this house. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 I’m very drunk and just screamed about that gfs prob waking up half this house. If we actually get a storm this year I will be drinking all night into morning with itSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 0z Euro brings the 7th storm north as well. All 3 Globals at 0z have us in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 0z Ensemble probs on the 6-7th storm for >3” 24hr snowfall. Euro EPS vs GEFS. Canadian ensemble mean looked more similar to the Euro swath… which is a pretty solid signal at D7. I’d say we officially got something trackable. The system on the 4th-5th is still in play too, via the northern stream since the southern feature mostly stays separate. There may be just enough amp of the northern stream feature to generate an area of light snowfall over the area (something kind of like the 0z GFS). 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Good morning & Happy New Year’s Eve! The 6z GFS is giving us one hell of a wake up call for the January 7th chance! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 53 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Good morning & Happy New Year’s Eve! The 6z GFS is giving us one hell of a wake up call for the January 7th chance! Only about one week away...what could change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 7 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Only about one week away...what could change? Yesterday, the models all keyed on the storm coming up the coast to get us in the game. Hopefully this continues today. If so, the rest of the week would be about nailing down the exact track to determine amounts & any precip type issues. Long way to go, but I like where we stand in CTP at this time for a Winter storm chance on the 7th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 8 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: What a beautiful 0z GFS run! Great hour for you & @paweather with your football team winning & this GFS run. That was one ugly win. Mike McCarthy thanks the officials. I still worry about cold coming in for this system ala what the Euro shows. GFS money shot is a thing of beauty though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 8 hours ago, Jns2183 said: My flight home is toast, haha Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk You keep saying that but the runways would be cleared by the next day IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 You keep saying that but the runways would be cleared by the next day IMO. The issue is the plane itself is due to fly from Philly to me the day beforeSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Good morning & Happy New Year’s Eve! The 6z GFS is giving us one hell of a wake up call for the January 7th chance! Needs to stop creeping north...NOWWWW!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: The issue is the plane itself is due to fly from Philly to me the day before Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Gotcha. They may pivot and not have it there to get stuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Needs to stop creeping north...NOWWWW!!! Agreed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 I'm a fan of putting much stock into seasonal trends. Our problem is that it is rare for models to sniff out the correct solution 6 or 7 days out, so when you're in the bullseye this far out....uh boy. Most know this I'm sure. But the seasonal trend this year so far isn't comforting to me because this is arguably the first threat after the pattern change and, up to now, so many of the slp's have been inland runners. So in my mind, that 50/50 to develop from 1/4 system holds our future as to whether everything from here is downhill. All of which means, as good as it looks now, don't fall in love with it because it will likely be Wednesday before some reasonable confidence can be had that we will be able to buck the seasonal trend. Just mho. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 30 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I'm a fan of putting much stock into seasonal trends. Our problem is that it is rare for models to sniff out the correct solution 6 or 7 days out, so when you're in the bullseye this far out....uh boy. Most know this I'm sure. But the seasonal trend this year so far isn't comforting to me because this is arguably the first threat after the pattern change and, up to now, so many of the slp's have been inland runners. So in my mind, that 50/50 to develop from 1/4 system holds our future as to whether everything from here is downhill. All of which means, as good as it looks now, don't fall in love with it because it will likely be Wednesday before some reasonable confidence can be had that we will be able to buck the seasonal trend. Just mho. Good points, but yesterday at this time we only had models keeping this storm well to the south or no storm showing. It’s good that there is now a consensus that there should be a storm that comes up the coast. Like you said, plenty of time to work out the details. I like where we sit up here in CTP at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Good points, but yesterday at this time we only had models keeping this storm well to the south or no storm showing. It’s good that there is now a consensus that there should be a storm that comes up the coast. Like you said, plenty of time to work out the details. I like where we sit up here in CTP at this time. Seems like the best the models can do +7 days is see a potential storm and use a dartboard to place it, so anything is possible on them. Between 3-7 days, where we are now, they start honing in. <3 days is the fine tuning when we all hold our breaths, assuming we're still in the game. As for your location, as is typical with these juicy, Niño systems, the closer to I81 one is, the better. Unless, of course, you get a killer block or 50/50. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 17 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Good points, but yesterday at this time we only had models keeping this storm well to the south or no storm showing. It’s good that there is now a consensus that there should be a storm that comes up the coast. Like you said, plenty of time to work out the details. I like where we sit up here in CTP at this time. Definitely better than we were 48 hours ago but almost too good, too fast for some....still a good problem to have vs last week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Definitely better than we were 48 hours ago but almost too good, too fast for some....still a good problem to have vs last week. Exactly, much better than Congrats no one, congrats DT in Richmond or congrats beaches. We are in the game. Hopefully we end up in the sweet spot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Wow out last night!!! What a heck of runs let’s do this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 8 minutes ago, paweather said: Wow out last night!!! What a heck of runs let’s do this! Let's just hope the 6Z GFS reported as eligible to the officials. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Happy New Year's Eve Day to all!! It should be a mostly cloudy seasonably chilly final day of 2023. We could ring in the New Year overnight and toward morning with a few light snow showers. Any very small accumulation amounts would be in areas over 700 ft ASL. A cooling trend looks to take place as we move through the week with the next chance of any snow or rain showers toward Thursday. A larger potential event may impact the area next weekend. Records for today: High 64 (1965) / Low minus 5 (1917) / Rain 1.68" (1906) / Snow 5.0" (1970) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Let's just hope the 6Z GFS reported as eligible to the officials. Exactly LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoralRed Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Unexpected News from Williamsport. This would be our first snow worth counting as anything up here, with an extra inch the next day. Weather.com says back to 48/38 by Tuesday though. Yesterday afternoon we had some relief from the curse of PA grey in the afternoon with actual big patches of blue for a while but the way things look now, I think we will have the predicted all-day dreariness today. Ugh. Still have to be glad no precip or low temps for tonight here in PA or in NYC for ball drop. The unpredictable factor for NYC will be potential protestor disruptions. I hope they skip it but I am afraid they won't. Sat 06 | Night 31° 58% ENE6 mph Snow showers. Low 31F. Winds light and variable. Chance of snow 60%. Snow accumulating 3 to 5 inches. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Good points, but yesterday at this time we only had models keeping this storm well to the south or no storm showing. That is Mitch's point, in one day we went from well south to bullseye. I'm back from a few days away, and like you, I'm about to get invested in the upcoming period that we've been seeing coming for weeks. Just hoping the chips fall right for us. Looking like plenty of opps for storms as the Pineapple connection looks to keep throwin stuff our way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Fyi, there's been a lot written about the SSW and a possible split of the PV. Don't know if anyone has continued to follow it, but I have and the 6z Gfs operational is now splitting the PV again. It had backed off from showing it after a wave 1 hit, but now has it finally splitting after a second wave hit. This is good if it happens. Gefs aren't on board yet, but they always lag the operational on SSW events due to smoothing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 I transferred money into chips this morning...Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 12Z GFS shows a bit more interaction between the streams for Jan 4th but temps are still an issue...rain in the LSV and snow TV elsewhere in PA. Minor either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Next SW, snow overspreading PA Saturday late afternoon and evening...moved up the speed a tad....but primary is MUCH farther Northwest in the Ohio Valley at this time. It transfers but not great for southeastern PA. Validates the concerns from this AM as to possible eventual depictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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