mitchnick Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 1/6-1/7 threat has makings of a monster if it can come together right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Light snow for 1/7. Looks like Gfs wants to send energy out in poeces because there's already another vort gaining steam by the 8th headed east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Gfs goes goofy due to a huge area of cold in Canada pressing south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 3 hours ago, anotherman said: Lots of focus on high temperatures on operational models over a week away. Focus on the pattern. El Niño is not known for super cold. Just cold enough. Thank you ....thank you.... and thank you. Until the pattern is figured out by larger scale indicators....even the best snow map on a mid/LR Op run is a short hair more useful than boobs on a bull. I'll us tellies and Ens guidance all day and every day, and even though not always correct, still better than 1 silly run of an LR Op. Ens guidance is many slight iterations of a general common basepoint, and while there are outliers, the ens mean is a good/great tool for longer leads when throwing darts at the weather board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 4 hours ago, canderson said: Car says 17 this am - brr thinnking of you at this difficult time bud. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 11 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 1/6-1/7 threat has makings of a monster if it can come together right. Let’s do it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 48 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 1/6-1/7 threat has makings of a monster if it can come together right. That is the one I am watching as well....feel we are asking for too much beyond sloppy light stuff before then. Need to see the papa op move toward it. The PV suppression is one possibility. I personally am not a fan of an arctic outbreak both due to the cold and supression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Another cloudy but milder day with temps rising to near normal levels for late December. A slight chance of showers overnight tonight otherwise a nice warming trend that will last through Thursday before a return to near normal temps to close out 2023. Next rain chance is Tuesday and Wednesday this week. Records for today: High 65.3 (2015) / Low 0 (1960) / Rain 1.41" (1907) / Snow 6.2" (1963) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Looking ahead it appears likely that this December will finish as the 4th warmest final month of the year since records began in 1894. See the Top 20 warmest and coldest Decembers below. Of note, in our current warm cycle the top 3 warm December's have all occurred just since 2006!! So does a warm December correlate to a less snowy upcoming winter season? The answer is overall yes. Only 4 of the top 20 warmest December's featured above normal snow seasons (avg. snow 36"). While 10 of the top 20 coldest Decembers featured above normal snow for the upcoming season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Looking ahead it appears likely that this December will finish as the 4th warmest final month of the year since records began in 1894. Aaaaaand queue the trolls...Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 19 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Aaaaaand queue the trolls... Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Nah. He’s so close to getting it, even if “in our current warm cycle” has no place on a science-based forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 20 minutes ago, TimB said: Relax dude, I don’t care who you vote for. Pittsburgh calling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Nice to see some threats popping up now on the operational runs. Hopefully we start tracking some storms within the 5-7 day range! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Nah. He’s so close to getting it, even if “in our current warm cycle” has no place on a science-based forum.It truly does not matter if the solution will make my life harder in the least bit. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Gets showing similar strong signal to the eps for Jan 7th time frame. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 It’s a shame that this week a couple of good posters that have over 30,000 combined posts on here over the years have been attacked. The internet is really going downhill faster than ever…. I just don’t get it anymore… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Gets showing similar strong signal to the eps for Jan 7th time frame. It shows 2 shots before a relax/reload. Psuhoffman has a good post how after the reload things will likely get even more interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: It shows 2 shots before a relax/reload. Psuhoffman has a good post how after the reload things will likely get even more interesting. I saw that and really his thoughts are my "backup" per se....winter is not over if we fail in early to mid Jan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPA MT TOP Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 There will always be those who post that are rude, obnoxious, just plain nasty. Over my many years of life, don't want to mention how many, I found best way to deal with them is just ignore them. Don't answer it, that's what they want to keep it going, they know they are getting under your skin. After time, some longer than others, they just fade away. They aren't getting any attention. It might be hard for some to ignore, but trust me, it works. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, NEPA MT TOP said: There will always be those who post that are rude, obnoxious, just plain nasty. Over my many years of life, don't want to mention how many, I found best way to deal with them is just ignore them. Don't answer it, that's what they want to keep it going, they know they are getting under your skin. After time, some longer than others, they just fade away. They aren't getting any attention. It might be hard for some to ignore, but trust me, it works. I want that discipline in the worst way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Geps likes the 6/7th too. It should be understood to anyone thinking, what's the big deal about an 1.5"? At this range for an ensemble, that's a strong signal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 I just got back from some pre Christmas errands and got to look at the GFS. My goodness it is full of potential for the first week of January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 The GFS even has the chance of snow in Western & Northern CTP on the 28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The GFS even has the chance of snow in Western & Northern CTP on the 28th. Missed that. Good catch. Maybe it can trend east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Eps looks similar to Geps for the 7th. Still more snow would fall beyond the last panel of the run per qpf maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Missed that. Good catch. Maybe it can trend east. Thanks & the Euro Op is trying for that 28/29th period as well for a possible light event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 22 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Eps looks similar to Geps for the 7th. Still more snow would fall beyond the last panel of the run per qpf maps. Last week my thinking was that by this weekend, good looks would start to show up on the maps. Glad to see were getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 I still would like this area to trend colder on an ensemble mean.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 DT thoughts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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