Mount Joy Snowman Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Low of 27 here. Sunday's system is a doozy with another widespread ~2" for the forum, although folks southeast should have the best chance at big totals. The bulk of the heavy stuff looks to arrive overnight, and then I wouldn't be surprised if many of us see some snow showers drift through on monday night. Fun little system. Happy Friday fellas! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: WPC continues to up the goods: a nice soaker! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: WPC continues to up the goods: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Looking at the trailing vort on the 6z op and eps along with eps snowfall map it looks like we should see at least snow showers, if not some light snow accumulations, with the vort passage. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 22 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Looking at the trailing vort on the 6z op and eps along with eps snowfall map it looks like we should see at least snow showers, if not some light snow accumulations, with the vort passage. Sure hope so. If one looks at 2m temps beyond the rainer on the GFS, while the pattern still looks less than ideal....its not horrid either and beyond christmas the temp profile looks rather ninoish and more workable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 15, 2023 Author Share Posted December 15, 2023 Looks to be wet on both coasts. After our flirtation with 80 degrees the next few days, the talk is of getting some much need rain here in Phoenix late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 12z Models so far: GFS tracks this weekend's storm right over my backyard. CMC runs it up through Conshohocken. ICON tracks it offshore 50-75 miles or so. Depending on the track, the heaviest rains could conceivably occur anywhere from the Ridge and Valley of PA to S/E of I95. Regardless, it's gonna be wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Flood watches will be going up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 It's a quiet Friday....let's hope WSW are in the air soon! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Everyone asleep for the Euro? 10:1 and Kuchera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 7 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Flood watches will be going up. . For sure. Flash flood guidance is fairly high especially in eastern PA, but this is still likely to cause widespread issues of the urban/small stream variety and some of the medium size waterways cracking flood stage. Looking at headwater guidance in the Sus Valley…Swatara Creek looks especially vulnerable for minor or even moderate flooding as well as the Schuylkill River (for minor) given the widespread agreement on a 2-3+” event of which the heaviest bulk likely comes within a 12hr timeframe. The tributaries of the Juniata (Little Juniata and Frankstown Branch) would be similarly vulnerable to at least minor flood stage if the swath of heaviest rains (2-3”) ended up catching back this way. Headwater guidance . 1hr 3hr 6hr 12hr 24hr Quote : NWS STATE COLLEGE SERVICE AREA... : SUSQUEHANNA BASIN... : Tioga River... MFDP1 2.6/ 2.7/ 2.9/ 3.6/ 4.8 :Mansfield (12ft) :MFDP1md 3.0/ 3.2/ 3.5/ 4.3/ 5.8 Mansfield (13) :MFDP1mj 3.6/ 3.8/ 4.2/ 5.2/ 7.2 Mansfield (14) : Penns Creek... PNCP1 2.0/ 2.3/ 2.6/ 2.7/ 2.9 :Penns Creek (8ft) :PNCP1md 2.5/ 3.1/ 3.4/ 3.7/ 3.9 Penns Creek (10) :PNCP1mj 3.4/ 4.1/ 4.7/ 5.1/ 5.5 Penns Creek (12) : Frankstown Branch Juniata River... WIBP1 1.6/ 1.7/ 2.1/ 2.3/ 2.8 :Williamsburg (12ft) :WIBP1md 1.8/ 2.0/ 2.4/ 2.6/ 3.2 Williamsburg (13) :WIBP1mj 2.2/ 2.4/ 3.0/ 3.2/ 3.9 Williamsburg (15) : Little Juniata River... SPKP1 1.5/ 1.7/ 2.1/ 2.5/ 3.0 :Spruce Creek (8ft) :SPKP1md 2.0/ 2.4/ 2.9/ 3.3/ 4.1 Spruce Creek (10) :SPKP1mj 3.2/ 3.7/ 4.6/ 5.3/ 6.9 Spruce Creek (14) : Aughwick Creek... SLYP1 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.8 :Shirleysburg (10ft) :SLYP1md 2.8/ 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.2/ 3.7 Shirleysburg (12) :SLYP1mj 6.5/ 7.0/ 7.4/ 8.0/ 8.4 Shirleysburg (20) : Sherman Creek... SMDP1 2.4/ 2.6/ 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.6 :Shermans Dale (9ft) :SMDP1md 3.0/ 3.2/ 3.6/ 3.7/ 4.5 Shermans Dale (11) :SMDP1mj 4.9/ 5.5/ 6.3/ 6.6/ 8.4 Shermans Dale (16) : Conodoguinet Creek... HGSP1 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 3.0 :Hogestown (8ft) :HGSP1md 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 4.2 Hogestown (10) :HGSP1mj 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.6 Hogestown (12) : Yellow Breeches Creek... CPHP1 3.2/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.4/ 3.7 :Camp Hill (7ft) :CPHP1md 3.9/ 4.0/ 4.1/ 4.2/ 4.6 Camp Hill (9) :CPHP1mj 6.1/ 6.3/ 6.4/ 6.6/ 7.5 Camp Hill (13) : Swatara Creek... HTVP1 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.9/ 2.1/ 2.3 :Harper Tavern (9ft) :HTVP1md 2.6/ 2.7/ 2.8/ 3.0/ 3.3 Harper Tavern (12) :HTVP1mj 3.6/ 3.7/ 3.9/ 4.2/ 4.7 Harper Tavern (15) : Conestoga River... LNCP1 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.7/ 3.1 :Lancaster (11ft) :LNCP1md 2.8/ 3.0/ 3.1/ 3.5/ 4.0 Lancaster (13) :LNCP1mj 3.5/ 3.7/ 3.9/ 4.3/ 5.0 Lancaster (15) : DELAWARE BASIN... : Schuylkill River... LGVP1 1.8/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 2.0/ 2.2 :Landingville (8ft) :LGVP1md 2.6/ 2.8/ 2.9/ 3.2/ 3.8 Landingville (12) :LGVP1mj 3.3/ 3.7/ 3.9/ 4.3/ 5.1 Landingville (14) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Everyone asleep for the Euro? 10:1 and Kuchera. Lookin good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 3 minutes ago, paweather said: Lookin good! It includes an inch, gige or take, with the u/l low that swings thru after the big rain and the an inch or 2 on CHRISTMAS EVE! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: It includes an inch, gige or take, with the u/l low that swings thru after the big rain and the an inch or 2 on CHRISTMAS EVE! Keep them coming Mitch....Let's make January fun and white for a change. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 24 minutes ago, paweather said: Keep them coming Mitch....Let's make January fun and white for a change. January…sure….! But the last week of December is also full of potential. Also, we could get a little snow early next week with the trailing system. We also have the possibility that the Euro showed before Christmas that @mitchnick just posted. I am looking forward to the possibility of a great January, but December still has plenty to keep an eye on! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 The 12z Ensembles continue to have a good look with a workable pattern developing over the last few days of the month. It’s nice to see a general agreement between the EPS, GEFS & GEPS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Cold enough air for snow in late December is getting into place on the EPS & GEPS by the end of the month as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 The improved look on the EPS actually begins to get underway by 12/27. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Everyone asleep for the Euro? 10:1 and Kuchera. Maybe it's just me, but I'm not overly enthused by little more than a half inch of snowfall modeled over a 10-day period, when the current average single day snowfall is 0.3" and rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 20 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Maybe it's just me, but I'm not overly enthused by little more than a half inch of snowfall modeled over a 10-day period, when the current average single day snowfall is 0.3" and rising. The Harrisburg area averages around 6 inches of snow through the end of December. Those maps that @mitchnick posted show around 3 inches of snow near Harrisburg by 12/25. Many of us near Harrisburg & the lower Susquehanna Valley have had around 1 inch of snow already this month. My point is we still have a good chance to get on track with average snow by the end of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said: Maybe it's just me, but I'm not overly enthused by little more than a half inch of snowfall modeled over a 10-day period, when the current average single day snowfall is 0.3" and rising. Quiet until Mr Cllmate dream traveler joins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUWhiteout70 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 20 minutes ago, paweather said: Quiet until Mr Cllmate dream traveler joins. Shhhhhhh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Maybe it's just me, but my wife's vazigne, it hang like sleeve of wizard.Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 16, 2023 Author Share Posted December 16, 2023 Where the hell did he post that??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Where the hell did he post that???It's a secret lolSent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 The Harrisburg area averages around 6 inches of snow through the end of December. Those maps that [mention=821]mitchnick[/mention] posted show around 3 inches of snow near Harrisburg by 12/25. Many of us near Harrisburg & the lower Susquehanna Valley have had around 1 inch of snow already this month. My point is we still have a good chance to get on track with average snow by the end of the month.I’ve had an 1.5” surpassing last years total.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Not exactly inspiring. I’ve never seen this much of this deep red on the week 3-4 outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 4 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said: Maybe it's just me, but I'm not overly enthused by little more than a half inch of snowfall modeled over a 10-day period, when the current average single day snowfall is 0.3" and rising. It's you. You have no joy in your life. Seriously. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 6 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Cold enough air for snow in late December is getting into place on the EPS & GEPS by the end of the month as well. This apparently needs posted again. The Pittsburgh crew must not have seen it… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 6 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 12z Ensembles continue to have a good look with a workable pattern developing over the last few days of the month. It’s nice to see a general agreement between the EPS, GEFS & GEPS. This needs bumped as well. If this doesn’t get the Debs enthused, then nothing will… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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